Pre-Free Agency Power Rankings
Dec 3, 2022 14:04:36 GMT -5
Phillies GM (Zach), Das (Former Giants GM), and 2 more like this
Post by Ken Rosenthal on Dec 3, 2022 14:04:36 GMT -5
Statistics from Fantrax Player Projections, adjusted for BKDB regular season stats only.
Players included: Top 50 projected at each position, Top 180 SP, and Top 150 RP.
Criteria: Only best starting lineup included in hitting points. Top 8 SP per team. Top 6 RP per team.
Notes: My opinion is that these rankings will slightly undervalue overall depth on teams. That's the downside of doing these calculations manually. As seen from last year's projection comparisons, they aren't so far off from Will's FanGraphs projections though. Being bullpens are so volatile, these rankings also tend to marginally overvalue teams with elite bullpen arms.
30. Boston Red Sox
2023 Points Projected: 1,762 | 2022 Points Scored: 2,116 | Cap Space: $102.6
Hitting Rank: 30th | Rotation Rank: 29th | Bullpen Rank: 30th
Boston will have loads of cap space again this off-season, but even if they actually spent all of it this time they wouldn't have enough to field a competitive roster. Re-signing Correa at a bargain was a good move. He's projected for around a quarter of this team's total points. Kopech and Madrigal are interesting pre-ARB guys. Both of them solidifying long term roles would be a positive sign. The Red Sox are still at least another full year of rebuilding away from making any progress up these rankings. They could lose quite easily quite easily in 2023.
29. Pittsburgh Pirates
2023 Points Projected: 2,539 | 2022 Points Scored: 3,207 | Cap Space: $76.2
Hitting Rank: 27th | Rotation Rank: 26th | Bullpen Rank: 23rd
Pittsburgh is a young team with a couple veterans still around. I feel more confident in them than Boston that they could shoot up a few spots after free agency if they fill some of their big holes on the left side of the infield, at catcher, and improve the pitching as a whole. Former top prospect Nolan Gorman wasn't projected for enough points to even be included in their total projection. If he took a step forward, that could allow them to keep Rodgers at short and settle their middle infield questions for the next half-decade. Overall, another team who's probably another year away though.
28. New York Mets
2023 Points Projected: 2,596 | 2022 Points Scored: 3,453 | Cap Space: $97.1
Hitting Rank: 29th | Rotation Rank: 23rd | Bullpen Rank: 24th
The Mets have one of the more fun young cores at the major league level. Vinnie P, Kirk, and Pena look like fixtures in this lineup for awhile. Strider broke out in a big way to take over the top of the Mets rotation. Similar to Pittsburgh though, the left side of the infield is an enigma. Second base is empty. They don't have an outfielder I trust. And the pitching is a wasteland behind Strider. $100m can answer a couple of those questions this off-season, but the Mets are another team looking at a long 2023 season. Long-term, I like where this is headed.
27. Chicago Cubs
2023 Points Projected: 2,740 | 2022 Points Scored: 2,649 | Cap Space: $49.6
Hitting Rank: 28th | Rotation Rank: 20th | Bullpen Rank: 29th
This will be the Cubs fourth season of this current rebuild, so it's a big discouraging to see them down at 27th in projections heading into what should be a season where they take a modest leap. Outside of their Jose Ramirez signing last off-season, the offense has been what's holding this whole process back. Is there a player outside of J-Ram they feel confident as a long-term starter? Maybe Luis Garcia? He's the only one projections were particularly fond of. The rotation is another story. Being at 20th is a good sign. Gray, Cavalli, and now Jack Flaherty is a solid trio atop the rotation. Probably another year of losing, and likely the last one this team will have patience for.
26. Oakland Athletics
2023 Points Projected: 3,101 | 2022 Points Scored: 3,587 | Cap Space: $60.7
Hitting Rank: 21st | Rotation Rank: 30th | Bullpen Rank: 21st
Oakland has been wandering in the wilderness for 6-7 years now. A solid farm system is in place at this point at least, but things are still a bit of a mess. On offense, Lindor, Henderson, Casas, and Blackmon is a solid core that will produce. Filling their second base hole and adding a real utility bat in free agency could get them closer to league average. But even then, that wouldn't help their league worst rotation. Adrian Sampson was the only pitcher included in their projected rotation. Could they pull off an off-season similar to the Royals last year and add 3-4 starters to the rotation? The result could be a surprise 10 win season, though it's much more unlikely in the AL West.
25. Tampa Bay Rays
2023 Points Projected: 3,170 | 2022 Points Scored: 3,095 | Cap Space: $31.3
Hitting Rank: 17th | Rotation Rank: 28th | Bullpen Rank: 26th
Here we are at year five of the rebuild in Tampa Bay. It's a somewhat similar roster to Oakland. They're sitting at 25th in pre-season projections with just $30m in cap space. Hardly encouraging. Freeman and Tucker is one of the best combo's in the league, partially leading to their league average offense. They still need a second and third baseman though. The rotation behind deGrom is nonexistent. There were many weeks when the Rays had 0 starts last season, and the same will continue if they can't figure out a rotation. It looks like we're headed for another losing season in Tampa Bay.
24. Minnesota Twins
2023 Points Projected: 3,303 | 2022 Points Scored: 3,964 | Cap Space: $67.9
Hitting Rank: 26th | Rotation Rank: 22nd | Bullpen Rank: 22nd
We enter year two of the Matt regime. Things look pretty similar to when he started, but major potential departures in free agency, it's decision time on what to do with this roster. There's a solid farm system and $70m in cap space. The Twins have gaps at second and short and a thin rotation. Should they bring back Anthony Rizzo when the money could used elsewhere? That's a tough call. Could they pivot to deal Machado, Hernandez, and rotation arms to get this farm system near the top in the league? Either direction would be understandable. Doing nothing for another year would not.
23. New York Yankees
2023 Points Projected: 3,523 | 2022 Points Scored: 3,694 | Cap Space: $61.1
Hitting Rank: 24th | Rotation Rank: 27th | Bullpen Rank: 8th
New York took the leap last off-season, and it backfired... weakening their farm system and delivering them another losing season. This team is probably over-projected due to their terrific top-end of the bullpen led by Liam Hendriks. New York actually has a full lineup, which makes their 24th hitting rank pretty revealing. Outside of Muncy, there isn't an all-star level player at the dish. Alek Manoah alone gets them out of the cellar of rotation rankings, but there's nothing else. This team likely needs to just wait for the minor leagues to produce more talent. Trading Hendriks and Muncy and signing some solid long-term contracts in free agency would make me feel better about their future, which is pretty murky right now.
22. Philadelphia Phillies
2023 Points Projected: 3,687 | 2022 Points Scored: 4,547 | Cap Space: $41.9
Hitting Rank: 14th | Rotation Rank: 24th | Bullpen Rank: 25th
The Phillies unforgettable sell-off at the trade deadline had its impact all over the league. Philly stills has a full lineup, but I'd expect to see Baez and Schwarber traded at some point this off-season. You don't trade your whole team to never pick at the top of the draft even once, right? The toughest decision for the Phillies will be what to do with Zac Gallen. He's just starting the first of four arbitration years. Is it worth it to keep him through the rebuild? Or trade him now at max value to get some great prospects. Philadelphia will be modest players in free agency. They could come away with a stud to be traded later in the winter. Expect this team to fall in the rankings by the start of the season.
21. Atlanta Braves
2023 Points Projected: 4,122 | 2022 Points Scored: 4,814 | Cap Space: $76.6
Hitting Rank: 15th | Rotation Rank: 17th | Bullpen Rank: 28th
Atlanta is always a bit of a question mark coming into the season. For 2023? I actually think they could be pretty good. The Braves have a league average offense and rotation. With $75m in cap space, they could fill their shortstop gap, add multiple starters, and still improve their bullpen. I'd love to see Atlanta grab one of the aces (Rodon, Wheeler, Gausman) in free agency. That star shortstop to boost there offense isn't on the market this year, but might be able to be had by trade. If they play their cards right, this Braves team might be a wild card for the first time since 2014.
20. Detroit Tigers
2023 Points Projected: 4,267 | 2022 Points Scored: 4,701 | Cap Space: $28.3
Hitting Rank: 13th | Rotation Rank: 21st | Bullpen Rank: 18th
This looked like one of the teams with the brightest futures in the league a year ago... and look where we are now. Detroit still has one of the league's best in Trea Turner on the roster. Spencer Torkelson was given a near 400 point projection this year, which would be a much-improved season considering his struggles last year. They need a catcher. The Tigers have a handful of starting pitchers, but will need to focus on improving the rotation if they're going to compete in the AL Central this season. Cleveland may take a step back. Chicago is still a big of a question mark. Kansas City is vulnerable. The Twins are a mystery. This is a division that could be had. Can the Tigers make the moves necessary to get back to the post-season?
19. Kansas City Royals
2023 Points Projected: 4,270 | 2022 Points Scored: 4,830 | Cap Space: $14.2
Hitting Rank: 25th | Rotation Rank: 18th | Bullpen Rank: 5th
My opinion? The Royals are in trouble if the playoffs are again their goal. This team is entirely dependent on trades or internal improvement in order to finish in the top half of the league in scoring again this season. They do have a great bullpen, but it probably overrates them a bit in terms of these rankings. Semien and Mullins are studs on offense. Can Kelenic finally live up to the hype? 1B and SS are huge holes to fill for the Royals. The rotation is better than at this time last year, but still needs a couple arms. $15m isn't going to solve all of those problems. Kansas City is poised to take a step back this season unless they did into their farm system to trade for some help.
18. Los Angeles Dodgers
2023 Points Projected: 4,614 | 2022 Points Scored: 5,829 | Cap Space: $54.5
Hitting Rank: 6th | Rotation Rank: 25th | Bullpen Rank: 12th
The Dodgers might be the biggest shocker in these pre-season projections. Coming off a near 6,000 point season with a farm system on the rise, we would expect the Dodgers to be in the top 10 by now. Unfortunately, pitching injuries have just crushed this team. With Baz and Buehler out for the year and Gausman a restriction free agent, they've got work to do. Maeda was a nice start to the off-season, but they'll need at least three, maybe four more starters if they're going to get back into the top playoff team conversation. Maybe the farm gives you a starter or two? Or maybe this is just a year they chalk up to injuries and come back on fire for 2024.
17. Arizona Diamondbacks
2023 Points Projected: 4,767 | 2022 Points Scored: 6,002 | Cap Space: $17.1
Hitting Rank: 18th | Rotation Rank: 12th | Bullpen Rank: 20th
Here's a team where their depth might be slightly undervalued? That isn't to deny Arizona has work to do if they want to be a 6,000 point team again in 2023. This team already runs six deep in the rotation. Another arm would be nice. Can Soroka bounce back, and May take the leap? That would get this team into the top 10 for pitching staffs. First base is a position of need. Adding Anthony Rizzo or Yuli Gurriel would be nice adds, but can they make such a big splash while adding other needed FA's on such a budget? The Dodgers and Rockies probably have more questions in the NL West, but the D'backs will need to get creative to be a threat this season.
16. Milwaukee Brewers
2023 Points Projected: 4,850 | 2022 Points Scored: 4,647 | Cap Space: $46.0
Hitting Rank: 22nd | Rotation Rank: 10th | Bullpen Rank: 19th
Milwaukee's decision to retool for a season and trade off veterans for prospects and younger players appears to have been the correct one. Albies and Hoskins anchor the lineup, while Woodruff and Kelly lead a top 10 rotation. They're projected for nearly 5,000 points with obvious positions to fill at shortstop and third base, along with an easily improvable bullpen. Their nearly $50m in cap space ought to be enough to adequately fill out the roster. This would be a fun Nolan Arenado team. More realistically, I could see them adding a guys like Eugenio Suarez, Brandon Crawford, or Justin Turner to get the lineup filled out. Brewers should be right back in the playoff conversation.
15. Baltimore Orioles
2023 Points Projected: 4,919 | 2022 Points Scored: 3,823 | Cap Space: $45.4
Hitting Rank: 13th | Rotation Rank: 15th | Bullpen Rank: 13th
Well, well, well. This team looks interesting. Can Mike keep his trade machine gun locked in a safe for the season? That might keep this team on the great trajectory they appear to be headed on. Here is our first team ranked in the top half of the league in all three categories. J-Rod heads up an exciting young lineup, while Kirby and Webb will hold down the fort of this young rotation. Baltimore has enough cap space to address some of their big issues for the 2023 season: third base, two rotation arms, and a closer. Could they steal Ryan Pressly from San Francisco? Sign a couple veteran starters? Bring back Arenado? There's many directions the O's could take their $45m in cap space. We just might be looking at a playoff team. Somewhat due to the pathetic AL East. But also due to this team being on the rise.
14. Cleveland Guardians
2023 Points Projected: 5,013 | 2022 Points Scored: 6,480 | Cap Space: $5.7
Hitting Rank: 19th | Rotation Rank: 13th | Bullpen Rank: 6th
Uh oh. It was all fireworks for the Guardians in their successful 2022 campaign that led them to a second straight ALCS. The bill is now due, and this Guardians team will have a hard time getting back to that level with $5m in cap space and limited assets to trade. There is a good chance this team is under-ranked, as this has been one of the deepest teams the past two seasons. Cleveland needs a third baseman though. Their best pitcher is Blake Snell, who's projected for less than 400 points. Only nine teams have a frontline pitcher worst than the Guardians. Are the necessary upgrades available? This team will have a hard time holding off the White Sox as the Guardians seek to repeat as AL Central champs.
13. Cincinnati Reds
2023 Points Projected: 5,077 | 2022 Points Scored: 4,683 | Cap Space: $34.8
Hitting Rank: 9th | Rotation Rank: 16th | Bullpen Rank: 17th
Here come the Reds. Following their first winning season since 2017, the Reds mean business are looking to find their way back into the playoffs for the first time in five years. Bobby Witt Jr. and Jose Altuve represent one of the best middle infields in baseball and lead the offense. Gerrit Cole has stuck it out through some rough rosters to be the ace of a league average staff that also includes Luis Castillo and Robbie Ray. What does Cincinnati need? Depth. Especially in the rotation. Can they stretch that $35m into 2-3 starting pitchers? Perhaps McCullers, Walker, and Hill? That doesn't seem unreasonable. If so, we might be looking at a top ten team headed for a wild card birth in 2023.
12. Texas Rangers
2023 Points Projected: 5,114 | 2022 Points Scored: 3,832 | Cap Space: $0.0
Hitting Rank: 4th | Rotation Rank: 19th | Bullpen Rank: 12th
Texas would sure love it free agency didn't exist this year. With $0m in cap space, this is the roster they're going into the season with barring more trades. Meaning... we're probably looking at a league average team by March. The offense is spectacular. Garcia, Harris, and Carroll could be one of the league's premier outfields. They've made strides in the rotation, but still lack the overall depth needed for a deep playoff run. There's some names remaining in the farm system for the Rangers. Can they find a way to piece those prospects and picks together for two more solid rotation arms (maybe even three)? It's a tall order. It's probably what's needed to secure a spot in the post-season in 2023 though.
11. San Diego Padres
2023 Points Projected: 5,212 | 2022 Points Scored: 6,082 | Cap Space: $9.9
Hitting Rank: 23rd | Rotation Rank: 5th | Bullpen Rank: 16th
San Diego really had a great season in 2022, finishing top 10 in scoring and making the playoffs. The same roster is mostly in place minus their star third baseman Nolan Arenado, who will likely find a home elsewhere in free agency. The Padres have open positions at third and catcher. That's really what's holding back their hitting ranking. Dubon is also hardly a viable option at shortstop. If the Padres can figure out their offense via the trade market, we might seem them get back to 12-13 wins again this season. The Padres rotation is about as deep as they come. As you can tell from the rankings, the NL West doesn't look nearly as formidable as it did last year. Perhaps this same roster minus Arenado is still good enough to get them back to the playoffs?
10. Chicago White Sox
2023 Points Projected: 5,212 | 2022 Points Scored: 6,082 | Cap Space: $82.1
Hitting Rank: 8th | Rotation Rank: 14th | Bullpen Rank: 10th
No team has made as exciting a rise from the end of last season til now as the Chicago White Sox. Austin Riley. Shane Bieber. Lance Lynn. Tyler Glasnow. What a haul. With move still to be made, you have to wonder if this team could actually go from finishing bottom 5 to projected top 5 without playing a game. An unheard of run. How can the Sox get there? Their biggest weak spots are currently only have five starting pitchers. Adding three more could easily get their projection to 6,250-6,500 points. Jeffers could be upgraded from at catcher. I'd love to see this team make a run at Ohtani in free agency. That's an easy 1,000 points for... $50m? Is any team in more of a position to hand out that contract than this team? If they want to spread it out more, there's plenty of players that could also fit in (Gausman, Rodan, Arenado, Marte). Get ready for some playoff White Sox baseball.
9. Los Angeles Angels
2023 Points Projected: 5,457 | 2022 Points Scored: 5,805 | Cap Space: $0.4
Hitting Rank: 12th | Rotation Rank: 3rd | Bullpen Rank: 26th
There were questions this off-season regarding long-time GM Derrick staying at the helm of the Angels franchise. He's back and looking to make it 12 consecutive post-season appearances. Easily a league record. How can this team improve? Well, this team currently has no one at first or third. Adding those positions in would readily push this team above 6,000 projected points. The rotation, behind Alcantara, Valdez, and Urias, is good enough to hang with anyone. I think the Angels should be calling the Twins about Manny Machado. With max cap coverage, he's probably the best player they could find a way to squeeze onto this roster at first or third. They have the prospect capital to make a lot moves happen. What will more likely happen? This team gets a wild card and hopes their farm fills in the cracks.
8. Colorado Rockies
2023 Points Projected: 5,540 | 2022 Points Scored: 6,105 | Cap Space: $0.0
Hitting Rank: 19th | Rotation Rank: 11th | Bullpen Rank: 1st
Here's your biggest bullpen benefactor team. The top end of the Rockies bullpen is excellent, but it's probably not the best indicator of a top eight team. Colorado has no cap space, no catcher, and no third outfielder. Swanson and Bell, their best hitters, are entering the last years of their contracts. Nola is a top 3 projected pitcher in the league, but won't be dragging this team to the post-season alone. This roster just screams retool, but it also has for quite a few years, so it's hard to judge where they'll end up. Regardless, there is no circumstance where this team will be ranked 8th following free agency. The floor could end up being quite a bit lower after the dust settles.
7. Miami Marlins
2023 Points Projected: 5,581 | 2022 Points Scored: 5,938 | Cap Space: $23.3
Hitting Rank: 16th | Rotation Rank: 8th | Bullpen Rank: 11th
Miami stormed back to make the post-season in spectacular fashion and actually won multiple playoff games en route to the NLCS, wrapping up a great 2022 season. Projections like the Marlins to get back to the post-season next year behind an overall deep roster. The Marlins have the second most projectable starting pitchers rostered in the league, leading to the 8th ranked rotation despite the lack of a clear ace. The offense is a bit lackluster, but could be improved by the Marlins grabbing a catcher in free agency, currently a position of need. Vazquez or d'Arnaud would work well here. A backstop plus an offensive upgrade would keep this team clearly in the passenger seat in the NL East, likely to be a wild card team once again. This is the last of the teams I currently see as non-contenders for the World Series barring bigger changes though.
6. Houston Astros
2023 Points Projected: 5,994 | 2022 Points Scored: 7,390 | Cap Space: $0.7
Hitting Rank: 7th | Rotation Rank: 6th | Bullpen Rank: 15th
Question marks for this team. Albeit much smaller ones than teams further down the list. I don't love their depth relative to the five teams above them. The Astros have been competing well for years and don't have the farm system others do in this range. No fault to them. Mookie Betts and Alex Bregman are the studs on offense. Musgrove, Mikolas, and Eovaldi is a great trio atop a deep rotation. Houston will have to work the trade market if they're going to improve much further beyond this. There's not really the pressure to do so unless teams like Chicago, Cincinnati, or Baltimore get ultra aggressive. Houston can coast into the post-season as is and figure out the necessary parts to be full-go come playoff time.
5. St. Louis Cardinals
2023 Points Projected: 6,280 | 2022 Points Scored: 7,096 | Cap Space: $20.4
Hitting Rank: 10th | Rotation Rank: 2nd | Bullpen Rank: 8th
The defending National League winners look about the same minus their best player's departure. Shohei Ohtani will certainly be missed, but the Cardinals have built a roster that can be great even without him. Fried, Gilbert, Verlander, and Wright atop the rotation is a luxury. The Cards go seven deep on the hill. Edwin Diaz is arguably the game's best closer. Seager and the nearly traded Devers are both projected for 600+ points. Where can St. Louis improve? They currently have no relevant catcher on the roster. Adding d'Arnaud or Vazquez in free agency would certainly help. Adding one more starting pitcher would be great to ensure they max out starts when healthy. The Cardinals are World Series contenders once again. Perhaps not the favorites, but right in the mix.
4. Washington Nationals
2023 Points Projected: 6,435 | 2022 Points Scored: 7,699 | Cap Space: $28.8
Hitting Rank: 5th | Rotation Rank: 9th | Bullpen Rank: 4th
Washington may have more depth than anyone, so keep that in mind when evaluating their projection which may be a bit low relative to production. Still, the Nationals take a slight step back after dealing Austin Riley and Emmanuel Clase to the aforementioned White Sox. The lineup is deep, with no player projected for less than 396 points ( second best "worst starter" in the league). The rotation is the same, though after Montgomery it's a lot of question marks. Washington does have the ability to go sign at least one star level player with their $30m in cap space. Might they make a run at one of the aces on the market? It's hard to how Tim will trade, whether it be acquiring or trading away MLB level contributors. However he decides to navigate the off-season, the Naitonals will end up a clear World Series contender come April.
3. Toronto Blue Jays
2023 Points Projected: 7,113 | 2022 Points Scored: 6,744 | Cap Space: $6.5
Hitting Rank: 3rd | Rotation Rank: 1st | Bullpen Rank: 7th
Toronto arguably exceeded my expectations more than any team when putting these projections together. Their rotation is far and away the best in BKDB entering 2023, barring any major shake ups by Seattle or St. Louis. When Clayton Kershaw is your #5, you've got something good going. The offense is stellar at every position with a solid starter at every position. The late season deal for Kris Bryant and Jorge Polanco appears to have paid dividends beyond last year's playoff run. This team still has a couple interesting prospects and their picks left to make a further upgrade or two in season as well. While just a hair beyond the top two favorites, Toronto is a great pick for the 2023 BKDB World Series.
2. Seattle Mariners
2023 Points Projected: 7,417 | 2022 Points Scored: 7,389 | Cap Space: $6.6
Hitting Rank: 2nd | Rotation Rank: 4th | Bullpen Rank: 2nd
Your defending champions are looking for a three-peat in 2023. Bo Bichette, Matt Olson, and Fernando Tatis lead the league's second best projected offense. The Mariners have two players projected for 450+ points on their bench in Mountcastle and Franco. The rotation is very deep, but major lacks the firepower behind Burnes of some of the other elite clubs in BKDB. Seattle also has the deepest and arguably best bullpen in the league when you get past six relievers. The Mariners are understandably without cap space and don't have that elite prospect coming up this year as in years past (not to say they won't get any help). Seattle is right back in the driver's seat in the American League. They're the AL favorites unless someone ups their game.
1. San Francisco Giants
2023 Points Projected: 7,456 | 2022 Points Scored: 6,961 | Cap Space: $3.0
Hitting Rank: 1st | Rotation Rank: 7th | Bullpen Rank: 3rd
Projections sure do like the Giants next year. San Francisco has four projected hitters (Vladdy, Judge, Soto, Harper) at 650+ points, leading to the best projected offense in the league by a wide margin. They also have an above average rotation with room to grow, further increasing their ceiling (only seven starters had projections). The bullpen is deep and stellar as usual. San Francisco doesn't look like they'll have nearly the trouble with the NL West division this year and should cruise to 15+ wins this coming season. Is this the year they finally get it done in the playoffs? They've got the assets to add wherever they need come summer time.
Players included: Top 50 projected at each position, Top 180 SP, and Top 150 RP.
Criteria: Only best starting lineup included in hitting points. Top 8 SP per team. Top 6 RP per team.
Notes: My opinion is that these rankings will slightly undervalue overall depth on teams. That's the downside of doing these calculations manually. As seen from last year's projection comparisons, they aren't so far off from Will's FanGraphs projections though. Being bullpens are so volatile, these rankings also tend to marginally overvalue teams with elite bullpen arms.
30. Boston Red Sox
2023 Points Projected: 1,762 | 2022 Points Scored: 2,116 | Cap Space: $102.6
Hitting Rank: 30th | Rotation Rank: 29th | Bullpen Rank: 30th
Boston will have loads of cap space again this off-season, but even if they actually spent all of it this time they wouldn't have enough to field a competitive roster. Re-signing Correa at a bargain was a good move. He's projected for around a quarter of this team's total points. Kopech and Madrigal are interesting pre-ARB guys. Both of them solidifying long term roles would be a positive sign. The Red Sox are still at least another full year of rebuilding away from making any progress up these rankings. They could lose quite easily quite easily in 2023.
29. Pittsburgh Pirates
2023 Points Projected: 2,539 | 2022 Points Scored: 3,207 | Cap Space: $76.2
Hitting Rank: 27th | Rotation Rank: 26th | Bullpen Rank: 23rd
Pittsburgh is a young team with a couple veterans still around. I feel more confident in them than Boston that they could shoot up a few spots after free agency if they fill some of their big holes on the left side of the infield, at catcher, and improve the pitching as a whole. Former top prospect Nolan Gorman wasn't projected for enough points to even be included in their total projection. If he took a step forward, that could allow them to keep Rodgers at short and settle their middle infield questions for the next half-decade. Overall, another team who's probably another year away though.
28. New York Mets
2023 Points Projected: 2,596 | 2022 Points Scored: 3,453 | Cap Space: $97.1
Hitting Rank: 29th | Rotation Rank: 23rd | Bullpen Rank: 24th
The Mets have one of the more fun young cores at the major league level. Vinnie P, Kirk, and Pena look like fixtures in this lineup for awhile. Strider broke out in a big way to take over the top of the Mets rotation. Similar to Pittsburgh though, the left side of the infield is an enigma. Second base is empty. They don't have an outfielder I trust. And the pitching is a wasteland behind Strider. $100m can answer a couple of those questions this off-season, but the Mets are another team looking at a long 2023 season. Long-term, I like where this is headed.
27. Chicago Cubs
2023 Points Projected: 2,740 | 2022 Points Scored: 2,649 | Cap Space: $49.6
Hitting Rank: 28th | Rotation Rank: 20th | Bullpen Rank: 29th
This will be the Cubs fourth season of this current rebuild, so it's a big discouraging to see them down at 27th in projections heading into what should be a season where they take a modest leap. Outside of their Jose Ramirez signing last off-season, the offense has been what's holding this whole process back. Is there a player outside of J-Ram they feel confident as a long-term starter? Maybe Luis Garcia? He's the only one projections were particularly fond of. The rotation is another story. Being at 20th is a good sign. Gray, Cavalli, and now Jack Flaherty is a solid trio atop the rotation. Probably another year of losing, and likely the last one this team will have patience for.
26. Oakland Athletics
2023 Points Projected: 3,101 | 2022 Points Scored: 3,587 | Cap Space: $60.7
Hitting Rank: 21st | Rotation Rank: 30th | Bullpen Rank: 21st
Oakland has been wandering in the wilderness for 6-7 years now. A solid farm system is in place at this point at least, but things are still a bit of a mess. On offense, Lindor, Henderson, Casas, and Blackmon is a solid core that will produce. Filling their second base hole and adding a real utility bat in free agency could get them closer to league average. But even then, that wouldn't help their league worst rotation. Adrian Sampson was the only pitcher included in their projected rotation. Could they pull off an off-season similar to the Royals last year and add 3-4 starters to the rotation? The result could be a surprise 10 win season, though it's much more unlikely in the AL West.
25. Tampa Bay Rays
2023 Points Projected: 3,170 | 2022 Points Scored: 3,095 | Cap Space: $31.3
Hitting Rank: 17th | Rotation Rank: 28th | Bullpen Rank: 26th
Here we are at year five of the rebuild in Tampa Bay. It's a somewhat similar roster to Oakland. They're sitting at 25th in pre-season projections with just $30m in cap space. Hardly encouraging. Freeman and Tucker is one of the best combo's in the league, partially leading to their league average offense. They still need a second and third baseman though. The rotation behind deGrom is nonexistent. There were many weeks when the Rays had 0 starts last season, and the same will continue if they can't figure out a rotation. It looks like we're headed for another losing season in Tampa Bay.
24. Minnesota Twins
2023 Points Projected: 3,303 | 2022 Points Scored: 3,964 | Cap Space: $67.9
Hitting Rank: 26th | Rotation Rank: 22nd | Bullpen Rank: 22nd
We enter year two of the Matt regime. Things look pretty similar to when he started, but major potential departures in free agency, it's decision time on what to do with this roster. There's a solid farm system and $70m in cap space. The Twins have gaps at second and short and a thin rotation. Should they bring back Anthony Rizzo when the money could used elsewhere? That's a tough call. Could they pivot to deal Machado, Hernandez, and rotation arms to get this farm system near the top in the league? Either direction would be understandable. Doing nothing for another year would not.
23. New York Yankees
2023 Points Projected: 3,523 | 2022 Points Scored: 3,694 | Cap Space: $61.1
Hitting Rank: 24th | Rotation Rank: 27th | Bullpen Rank: 8th
New York took the leap last off-season, and it backfired... weakening their farm system and delivering them another losing season. This team is probably over-projected due to their terrific top-end of the bullpen led by Liam Hendriks. New York actually has a full lineup, which makes their 24th hitting rank pretty revealing. Outside of Muncy, there isn't an all-star level player at the dish. Alek Manoah alone gets them out of the cellar of rotation rankings, but there's nothing else. This team likely needs to just wait for the minor leagues to produce more talent. Trading Hendriks and Muncy and signing some solid long-term contracts in free agency would make me feel better about their future, which is pretty murky right now.
22. Philadelphia Phillies
2023 Points Projected: 3,687 | 2022 Points Scored: 4,547 | Cap Space: $41.9
Hitting Rank: 14th | Rotation Rank: 24th | Bullpen Rank: 25th
The Phillies unforgettable sell-off at the trade deadline had its impact all over the league. Philly stills has a full lineup, but I'd expect to see Baez and Schwarber traded at some point this off-season. You don't trade your whole team to never pick at the top of the draft even once, right? The toughest decision for the Phillies will be what to do with Zac Gallen. He's just starting the first of four arbitration years. Is it worth it to keep him through the rebuild? Or trade him now at max value to get some great prospects. Philadelphia will be modest players in free agency. They could come away with a stud to be traded later in the winter. Expect this team to fall in the rankings by the start of the season.
21. Atlanta Braves
2023 Points Projected: 4,122 | 2022 Points Scored: 4,814 | Cap Space: $76.6
Hitting Rank: 15th | Rotation Rank: 17th | Bullpen Rank: 28th
Atlanta is always a bit of a question mark coming into the season. For 2023? I actually think they could be pretty good. The Braves have a league average offense and rotation. With $75m in cap space, they could fill their shortstop gap, add multiple starters, and still improve their bullpen. I'd love to see Atlanta grab one of the aces (Rodon, Wheeler, Gausman) in free agency. That star shortstop to boost there offense isn't on the market this year, but might be able to be had by trade. If they play their cards right, this Braves team might be a wild card for the first time since 2014.
20. Detroit Tigers
2023 Points Projected: 4,267 | 2022 Points Scored: 4,701 | Cap Space: $28.3
Hitting Rank: 13th | Rotation Rank: 21st | Bullpen Rank: 18th
This looked like one of the teams with the brightest futures in the league a year ago... and look where we are now. Detroit still has one of the league's best in Trea Turner on the roster. Spencer Torkelson was given a near 400 point projection this year, which would be a much-improved season considering his struggles last year. They need a catcher. The Tigers have a handful of starting pitchers, but will need to focus on improving the rotation if they're going to compete in the AL Central this season. Cleveland may take a step back. Chicago is still a big of a question mark. Kansas City is vulnerable. The Twins are a mystery. This is a division that could be had. Can the Tigers make the moves necessary to get back to the post-season?
19. Kansas City Royals
2023 Points Projected: 4,270 | 2022 Points Scored: 4,830 | Cap Space: $14.2
Hitting Rank: 25th | Rotation Rank: 18th | Bullpen Rank: 5th
My opinion? The Royals are in trouble if the playoffs are again their goal. This team is entirely dependent on trades or internal improvement in order to finish in the top half of the league in scoring again this season. They do have a great bullpen, but it probably overrates them a bit in terms of these rankings. Semien and Mullins are studs on offense. Can Kelenic finally live up to the hype? 1B and SS are huge holes to fill for the Royals. The rotation is better than at this time last year, but still needs a couple arms. $15m isn't going to solve all of those problems. Kansas City is poised to take a step back this season unless they did into their farm system to trade for some help.
18. Los Angeles Dodgers
2023 Points Projected: 4,614 | 2022 Points Scored: 5,829 | Cap Space: $54.5
Hitting Rank: 6th | Rotation Rank: 25th | Bullpen Rank: 12th
The Dodgers might be the biggest shocker in these pre-season projections. Coming off a near 6,000 point season with a farm system on the rise, we would expect the Dodgers to be in the top 10 by now. Unfortunately, pitching injuries have just crushed this team. With Baz and Buehler out for the year and Gausman a restriction free agent, they've got work to do. Maeda was a nice start to the off-season, but they'll need at least three, maybe four more starters if they're going to get back into the top playoff team conversation. Maybe the farm gives you a starter or two? Or maybe this is just a year they chalk up to injuries and come back on fire for 2024.
17. Arizona Diamondbacks
2023 Points Projected: 4,767 | 2022 Points Scored: 6,002 | Cap Space: $17.1
Hitting Rank: 18th | Rotation Rank: 12th | Bullpen Rank: 20th
Here's a team where their depth might be slightly undervalued? That isn't to deny Arizona has work to do if they want to be a 6,000 point team again in 2023. This team already runs six deep in the rotation. Another arm would be nice. Can Soroka bounce back, and May take the leap? That would get this team into the top 10 for pitching staffs. First base is a position of need. Adding Anthony Rizzo or Yuli Gurriel would be nice adds, but can they make such a big splash while adding other needed FA's on such a budget? The Dodgers and Rockies probably have more questions in the NL West, but the D'backs will need to get creative to be a threat this season.
16. Milwaukee Brewers
2023 Points Projected: 4,850 | 2022 Points Scored: 4,647 | Cap Space: $46.0
Hitting Rank: 22nd | Rotation Rank: 10th | Bullpen Rank: 19th
Milwaukee's decision to retool for a season and trade off veterans for prospects and younger players appears to have been the correct one. Albies and Hoskins anchor the lineup, while Woodruff and Kelly lead a top 10 rotation. They're projected for nearly 5,000 points with obvious positions to fill at shortstop and third base, along with an easily improvable bullpen. Their nearly $50m in cap space ought to be enough to adequately fill out the roster. This would be a fun Nolan Arenado team. More realistically, I could see them adding a guys like Eugenio Suarez, Brandon Crawford, or Justin Turner to get the lineup filled out. Brewers should be right back in the playoff conversation.
15. Baltimore Orioles
2023 Points Projected: 4,919 | 2022 Points Scored: 3,823 | Cap Space: $45.4
Hitting Rank: 13th | Rotation Rank: 15th | Bullpen Rank: 13th
Well, well, well. This team looks interesting. Can Mike keep his trade machine gun locked in a safe for the season? That might keep this team on the great trajectory they appear to be headed on. Here is our first team ranked in the top half of the league in all three categories. J-Rod heads up an exciting young lineup, while Kirby and Webb will hold down the fort of this young rotation. Baltimore has enough cap space to address some of their big issues for the 2023 season: third base, two rotation arms, and a closer. Could they steal Ryan Pressly from San Francisco? Sign a couple veteran starters? Bring back Arenado? There's many directions the O's could take their $45m in cap space. We just might be looking at a playoff team. Somewhat due to the pathetic AL East. But also due to this team being on the rise.
14. Cleveland Guardians
2023 Points Projected: 5,013 | 2022 Points Scored: 6,480 | Cap Space: $5.7
Hitting Rank: 19th | Rotation Rank: 13th | Bullpen Rank: 6th
Uh oh. It was all fireworks for the Guardians in their successful 2022 campaign that led them to a second straight ALCS. The bill is now due, and this Guardians team will have a hard time getting back to that level with $5m in cap space and limited assets to trade. There is a good chance this team is under-ranked, as this has been one of the deepest teams the past two seasons. Cleveland needs a third baseman though. Their best pitcher is Blake Snell, who's projected for less than 400 points. Only nine teams have a frontline pitcher worst than the Guardians. Are the necessary upgrades available? This team will have a hard time holding off the White Sox as the Guardians seek to repeat as AL Central champs.
13. Cincinnati Reds
2023 Points Projected: 5,077 | 2022 Points Scored: 4,683 | Cap Space: $34.8
Hitting Rank: 9th | Rotation Rank: 16th | Bullpen Rank: 17th
Here come the Reds. Following their first winning season since 2017, the Reds mean business are looking to find their way back into the playoffs for the first time in five years. Bobby Witt Jr. and Jose Altuve represent one of the best middle infields in baseball and lead the offense. Gerrit Cole has stuck it out through some rough rosters to be the ace of a league average staff that also includes Luis Castillo and Robbie Ray. What does Cincinnati need? Depth. Especially in the rotation. Can they stretch that $35m into 2-3 starting pitchers? Perhaps McCullers, Walker, and Hill? That doesn't seem unreasonable. If so, we might be looking at a top ten team headed for a wild card birth in 2023.
12. Texas Rangers
2023 Points Projected: 5,114 | 2022 Points Scored: 3,832 | Cap Space: $0.0
Hitting Rank: 4th | Rotation Rank: 19th | Bullpen Rank: 12th
Texas would sure love it free agency didn't exist this year. With $0m in cap space, this is the roster they're going into the season with barring more trades. Meaning... we're probably looking at a league average team by March. The offense is spectacular. Garcia, Harris, and Carroll could be one of the league's premier outfields. They've made strides in the rotation, but still lack the overall depth needed for a deep playoff run. There's some names remaining in the farm system for the Rangers. Can they find a way to piece those prospects and picks together for two more solid rotation arms (maybe even three)? It's a tall order. It's probably what's needed to secure a spot in the post-season in 2023 though.
11. San Diego Padres
2023 Points Projected: 5,212 | 2022 Points Scored: 6,082 | Cap Space: $9.9
Hitting Rank: 23rd | Rotation Rank: 5th | Bullpen Rank: 16th
San Diego really had a great season in 2022, finishing top 10 in scoring and making the playoffs. The same roster is mostly in place minus their star third baseman Nolan Arenado, who will likely find a home elsewhere in free agency. The Padres have open positions at third and catcher. That's really what's holding back their hitting ranking. Dubon is also hardly a viable option at shortstop. If the Padres can figure out their offense via the trade market, we might seem them get back to 12-13 wins again this season. The Padres rotation is about as deep as they come. As you can tell from the rankings, the NL West doesn't look nearly as formidable as it did last year. Perhaps this same roster minus Arenado is still good enough to get them back to the playoffs?
10. Chicago White Sox
2023 Points Projected: 5,212 | 2022 Points Scored: 6,082 | Cap Space: $82.1
Hitting Rank: 8th | Rotation Rank: 14th | Bullpen Rank: 10th
No team has made as exciting a rise from the end of last season til now as the Chicago White Sox. Austin Riley. Shane Bieber. Lance Lynn. Tyler Glasnow. What a haul. With move still to be made, you have to wonder if this team could actually go from finishing bottom 5 to projected top 5 without playing a game. An unheard of run. How can the Sox get there? Their biggest weak spots are currently only have five starting pitchers. Adding three more could easily get their projection to 6,250-6,500 points. Jeffers could be upgraded from at catcher. I'd love to see this team make a run at Ohtani in free agency. That's an easy 1,000 points for... $50m? Is any team in more of a position to hand out that contract than this team? If they want to spread it out more, there's plenty of players that could also fit in (Gausman, Rodan, Arenado, Marte). Get ready for some playoff White Sox baseball.
9. Los Angeles Angels
2023 Points Projected: 5,457 | 2022 Points Scored: 5,805 | Cap Space: $0.4
Hitting Rank: 12th | Rotation Rank: 3rd | Bullpen Rank: 26th
There were questions this off-season regarding long-time GM Derrick staying at the helm of the Angels franchise. He's back and looking to make it 12 consecutive post-season appearances. Easily a league record. How can this team improve? Well, this team currently has no one at first or third. Adding those positions in would readily push this team above 6,000 projected points. The rotation, behind Alcantara, Valdez, and Urias, is good enough to hang with anyone. I think the Angels should be calling the Twins about Manny Machado. With max cap coverage, he's probably the best player they could find a way to squeeze onto this roster at first or third. They have the prospect capital to make a lot moves happen. What will more likely happen? This team gets a wild card and hopes their farm fills in the cracks.
8. Colorado Rockies
2023 Points Projected: 5,540 | 2022 Points Scored: 6,105 | Cap Space: $0.0
Hitting Rank: 19th | Rotation Rank: 11th | Bullpen Rank: 1st
Here's your biggest bullpen benefactor team. The top end of the Rockies bullpen is excellent, but it's probably not the best indicator of a top eight team. Colorado has no cap space, no catcher, and no third outfielder. Swanson and Bell, their best hitters, are entering the last years of their contracts. Nola is a top 3 projected pitcher in the league, but won't be dragging this team to the post-season alone. This roster just screams retool, but it also has for quite a few years, so it's hard to judge where they'll end up. Regardless, there is no circumstance where this team will be ranked 8th following free agency. The floor could end up being quite a bit lower after the dust settles.
7. Miami Marlins
2023 Points Projected: 5,581 | 2022 Points Scored: 5,938 | Cap Space: $23.3
Hitting Rank: 16th | Rotation Rank: 8th | Bullpen Rank: 11th
Miami stormed back to make the post-season in spectacular fashion and actually won multiple playoff games en route to the NLCS, wrapping up a great 2022 season. Projections like the Marlins to get back to the post-season next year behind an overall deep roster. The Marlins have the second most projectable starting pitchers rostered in the league, leading to the 8th ranked rotation despite the lack of a clear ace. The offense is a bit lackluster, but could be improved by the Marlins grabbing a catcher in free agency, currently a position of need. Vazquez or d'Arnaud would work well here. A backstop plus an offensive upgrade would keep this team clearly in the passenger seat in the NL East, likely to be a wild card team once again. This is the last of the teams I currently see as non-contenders for the World Series barring bigger changes though.
6. Houston Astros
2023 Points Projected: 5,994 | 2022 Points Scored: 7,390 | Cap Space: $0.7
Hitting Rank: 7th | Rotation Rank: 6th | Bullpen Rank: 15th
Question marks for this team. Albeit much smaller ones than teams further down the list. I don't love their depth relative to the five teams above them. The Astros have been competing well for years and don't have the farm system others do in this range. No fault to them. Mookie Betts and Alex Bregman are the studs on offense. Musgrove, Mikolas, and Eovaldi is a great trio atop a deep rotation. Houston will have to work the trade market if they're going to improve much further beyond this. There's not really the pressure to do so unless teams like Chicago, Cincinnati, or Baltimore get ultra aggressive. Houston can coast into the post-season as is and figure out the necessary parts to be full-go come playoff time.
5. St. Louis Cardinals
2023 Points Projected: 6,280 | 2022 Points Scored: 7,096 | Cap Space: $20.4
Hitting Rank: 10th | Rotation Rank: 2nd | Bullpen Rank: 8th
The defending National League winners look about the same minus their best player's departure. Shohei Ohtani will certainly be missed, but the Cardinals have built a roster that can be great even without him. Fried, Gilbert, Verlander, and Wright atop the rotation is a luxury. The Cards go seven deep on the hill. Edwin Diaz is arguably the game's best closer. Seager and the nearly traded Devers are both projected for 600+ points. Where can St. Louis improve? They currently have no relevant catcher on the roster. Adding d'Arnaud or Vazquez in free agency would certainly help. Adding one more starting pitcher would be great to ensure they max out starts when healthy. The Cardinals are World Series contenders once again. Perhaps not the favorites, but right in the mix.
4. Washington Nationals
2023 Points Projected: 6,435 | 2022 Points Scored: 7,699 | Cap Space: $28.8
Hitting Rank: 5th | Rotation Rank: 9th | Bullpen Rank: 4th
Washington may have more depth than anyone, so keep that in mind when evaluating their projection which may be a bit low relative to production. Still, the Nationals take a slight step back after dealing Austin Riley and Emmanuel Clase to the aforementioned White Sox. The lineup is deep, with no player projected for less than 396 points ( second best "worst starter" in the league). The rotation is the same, though after Montgomery it's a lot of question marks. Washington does have the ability to go sign at least one star level player with their $30m in cap space. Might they make a run at one of the aces on the market? It's hard to how Tim will trade, whether it be acquiring or trading away MLB level contributors. However he decides to navigate the off-season, the Naitonals will end up a clear World Series contender come April.
3. Toronto Blue Jays
2023 Points Projected: 7,113 | 2022 Points Scored: 6,744 | Cap Space: $6.5
Hitting Rank: 3rd | Rotation Rank: 1st | Bullpen Rank: 7th
Toronto arguably exceeded my expectations more than any team when putting these projections together. Their rotation is far and away the best in BKDB entering 2023, barring any major shake ups by Seattle or St. Louis. When Clayton Kershaw is your #5, you've got something good going. The offense is stellar at every position with a solid starter at every position. The late season deal for Kris Bryant and Jorge Polanco appears to have paid dividends beyond last year's playoff run. This team still has a couple interesting prospects and their picks left to make a further upgrade or two in season as well. While just a hair beyond the top two favorites, Toronto is a great pick for the 2023 BKDB World Series.
2. Seattle Mariners
2023 Points Projected: 7,417 | 2022 Points Scored: 7,389 | Cap Space: $6.6
Hitting Rank: 2nd | Rotation Rank: 4th | Bullpen Rank: 2nd
Your defending champions are looking for a three-peat in 2023. Bo Bichette, Matt Olson, and Fernando Tatis lead the league's second best projected offense. The Mariners have two players projected for 450+ points on their bench in Mountcastle and Franco. The rotation is very deep, but major lacks the firepower behind Burnes of some of the other elite clubs in BKDB. Seattle also has the deepest and arguably best bullpen in the league when you get past six relievers. The Mariners are understandably without cap space and don't have that elite prospect coming up this year as in years past (not to say they won't get any help). Seattle is right back in the driver's seat in the American League. They're the AL favorites unless someone ups their game.
1. San Francisco Giants
2023 Points Projected: 7,456 | 2022 Points Scored: 6,961 | Cap Space: $3.0
Hitting Rank: 1st | Rotation Rank: 7th | Bullpen Rank: 3rd
Projections sure do like the Giants next year. San Francisco has four projected hitters (Vladdy, Judge, Soto, Harper) at 650+ points, leading to the best projected offense in the league by a wide margin. They also have an above average rotation with room to grow, further increasing their ceiling (only seven starters had projections). The bullpen is deep and stellar as usual. San Francisco doesn't look like they'll have nearly the trouble with the NL West division this year and should cruise to 15+ wins this coming season. Is this the year they finally get it done in the playoffs? They've got the assets to add wherever they need come summer time.