Pre-Season Projections Update

[Ken Rosenthal]

A post-Free Agency update.  Fantrax updated their player projections again this week.

Statistics from Fantrax Player Projections, adjusted for BKDB regular season stats only.
Players included: Top 50 projected at each position, Top 180 SP, and Top 160 RP.
Criteria: Only best starting lineup included in hitting points.  Top 8 SP per team.  Top 6 RP per team.
Notes: My opinion is that these rankings will slightly undervalue overall depth on teams.  That's the downside of doing these calculations manually.  As seen from last year's projection comparisons, they aren't so far off from Will's FanGraphs projections though.  Being bullpens are so volatile, these rankings also tend to marginally overvalue teams with elite bullpen arms.  

---

TIER 6: TANKERS

30(22). Philadelphia Phillies
2023 Points Projected: 2,372    |     2022 Points Scored: 4,547  
Hitting Rank: 29th    |     Rotation Rank: 29th    |     Bullpen Rank: 18th


29(28). Tampa Bay Rays
2023 Points Projected: 2,463    |    2022 Points Scored: 3,095    
Hitting Rank: 26th    |    Rotation Rank: 30th    |    Bullpen Rank: 29th


28(29). Boston Red Sox
2023 Points Projected: 2,634    |    2022 Points Scored: 2,116    
Hitting Rank: 27th    |    Rotation Rank: 27th    |    Bullpen Rank: 30th


27(30). New York Yankees
2023 Points Projected: 2,785    |     2022 Points Scored: 3,694    
Hitting Rank: 28th    |     Rotation Rank: 25th    |     Bullpen Rank: 25th


26(27). Pittsburgh Pirates
2023 Points Projected: 2,926    |    2022 Points Scored: 3,207    
Hitting Rank: 30th    |    Rotation Rank: 22nd    |    Bullpen Rank: 15th


25. Oakland Athletics
2023 Points Projected: 3,582    |    2022 Points Scored: 3,587    
Hitting Rank: 25th    |    Rotation Rank: 26th    |    Bullpen Rank: 23rd


24. New York Mets
2023 Points Projected: 3,646    |    2022 Points Scored: 3,453   
Hitting Rank: 24th    |    Rotation Rank: 23rd    |    Bullpen Rank: 26th

TIER 5: NO MAN'S LAND

23(26). Minnesota Twins
2023 Points Projected: 3,668    |    2022 Points Scored: 3,964    
Hitting Rank: 21st    |    Rotation Rank: 24th    |    Bullpen Rank: 27th


22(21). Kansas City Royals
2023 Points Projected: 4,282    |    2022 Points Scored: 4,830   
Hitting Rank: 22nd    |    Rotation Rank: 28th    |    Bullpen Rank: 6th


21(23). Chicago Cubs
2023 Points Projected: 4,587    |    2022 Points Scored: 2,649    
Hitting Rank: 20th    |    Rotation Rank: 20th    |    Bullpen Rank: 17th


20. Atlanta Braves
2023 Points Projected: 4,593    |     2022 Points Scored: 4,814    
Hitting Rank: 18th     |     Rotation Rank: 21st    |     Bullpen Rank: 22nd

TIER 4: ON THE PLAYOFF BUBBLE

19(17). Arizona Diamondbacks
2023 Points Projected: 5,092    |    2022 Points Scored: 6,002   
Hitting Rank: 14th    |    Rotation Rank: 19th    |    Bullpen Rank: 20th


18(19). Milwaukee Brewers
2023 Points Projected: 5,184    |    2022 Points Scored: 4,647    
Hitting Rank: 23rd    |    Rotation Rank: 14th    |    Bullpen Rank: 8th


17(11). San Diego Padres
2023 Points Projected: 5,313   |    2022 Points Scored: 6,082    
Hitting Rank: 19th    |    Rotation Rank: 11th    |    Bullpen Rank: 21st


16. Los Angeles Angels
2023 Points Projected: 5,466    |    2022 Points Scored: 5,805    
Hitting Rank: 15th    |    Rotation Rank: 6th    |    Bullpen Rank: 28th


15(18). Detroit Tigers
2023 Points Projected: 5,490    |    2022 Points Scored: 4,701    
Hitting Rank: 11th    |     Rotation Rank: 18th     |     Bullpen Rank: 19th


14(15). Miami Marlins
2023 Points Projected: 5,654    |    2022 Points Scored: 5,938    
Hitting Rank: 16th    |    Rotation Rank: 12th    |    Bullpen Rank: 10th


13(12). Los Angeles Dodgers
2023 Points Projected: 5,720    |    2022 Points Scored: 5,829   
Hitting Rank: 6th     |    Rotation Rank: 13th    |    Bullpen Rank: 24th


12(14). Colorado Rockies
2023 Points Projected: 5,733    |    2022 Points Scored: 6,105   
Hitting Rank: 17th    |    Rotation Rank: 15th    |    Bullpen Rank: 14th


11(13). Texas Rangers
2023 Points Projected: 5,815    |    2022 Points Scored: 3,832    
Hitting Rank: 4th    |    Rotation Rank: 17th    |    Bullpen Rank: 16th

TIER 3: LIKELY TO PUNCH THEIR TICKET


10. Cleveland Guardians
2023 Points Projected: 5,986    |    2022 Points Scored: 6,480    
Hitting Rank: 12th    |    Rotation Rank: 16th    |    Bullpen Rank: 7th


9(8). Cincinnati Reds
2023 Points Projected: 6,007    |    2022 Points Scored: 4,683    
Hitting Rank: 13th    |    Rotation Rank: 10th    |    Bullpen Rank: 12th


8(9). Houston Astros
2023 Points Projected: 6,240    |    2022 Points Scored: 7,390   
Hitting Rank: 8th    |    Rotation Rank: 9th    |    Bullpen Rank: 13th

TIER 2: THE CONTENDERS


7(5). Toronto Blue Jays
2023 Points Projected: 6,666    |    2022 Points Scored: 6,744    
Hitting Rank: 7th    |    Rotation Rank: 1st    |    Bullpen Rank: 11th


6. St. Louis Cardinals
2023 Points Projected: 6,758    |    2022 Points Scored: 7,096    
Hitting Rank: 10th    |    Rotation Rank: 7th    |    Bullpen Rank: 4th


5(4). Washington Nationals
2023 Points Projected: 7,057    |    2022 Points Scored: 7,699    
Hitting Rank: 5th    |    Rotation Rank: 2nd    |    Bullpen Rank: 5th


4(3). Chicago White Sox
2023 Points Projected: 7,127    |    2022 Points Scored: 6,082   
Hitting Rank: 9th    |    Rotation Rank: 4th    |    Bullpen Rank: 1st


3(7). Baltimore Orioles
2023 Points Projected: 7,172    |    2022 Points Scored: 3,823    
Hitting Rank: 3rd     |     Rotation Rank: 3rd    |    Bullpen Rank: 9th


TIER 1: THE WORLD SERIES FAVORITES


2(1). Seattle Mariners
2023 Points Projected: 7,346    |    2022 Points Scored: 7,389   
Hitting Rank: 2nd    |    Rotation Rank: 8th    |    Bullpen Rank: 2nd


1(2). San Francisco Giants
2023 Points Projected: 7,554    |    2022 Points Scored: 6,961    
Hitting Rank: 1st    |    Rotation Rank: 5th    |    Bullpen Rank: 3rd