2023 AL WEST PREVIEW

[Ken Rosenthal]

5. OAKLAND ATHLETICS

GM: Jonny
Fantrax Projection: 3,582 points
Farm Ranking: 2nd
Projected Record: 5-14

Memorable Off-Season Move: Signing starter Carlos Rodon to a three year, $97.2m deal.  

Hitting (projected points by Fantrax): 

C: Logan O'Hoppe (222)
1B: Tristan Casas (509)
2B: 
SS: Francisco Lindor (593)
3B: Gunnar Henderson (538)
OF: Charlie Blackmon (394)
OF: Yonathan Daza (260)
OF: Aaron Hicks (241)
UT: Ryan Kreidler (148)

BE: 
BE:
BE:

Pitching (projected points by Fantrax):

SP: Carlos Rodon (445)
SP: Shintaro Fujinami (285)
SP:
SP:
SP:

RP: Jhoan Duran (260)
RP: Carlos Estevez (217)
RP: Ryan Tepera (204)
RP:
RP:

BE:
BE:
BE:


Best Player: SS, Francisco Lindor.  Lindor has weathered the rebuild in Oakland and slots in as the best player on a meager A's team yet again.  After signing for a one year contract extension worth $21.9m in the off-season, the possibility of a Lindor departure looms whether mid-season via a trade or next off-season.  The star shortstop scored 609 points last season and is projected to be the fifth best shortstop in the game entering 2023.  It's hard to fathom that Lindor is still just 29 years old.  Should he hit free agency next off-season, a massive five year deal isn't out of the question.  

Best Asset: 3B, Gunnar Henderson.  A consensus top two prospect in the game set to debut this season and likely take over a starting role, Oakland fans are just dreaming of what Gunnar and Lindor could look like over the next five seasons on the left side of the infield.  The still-rookie infielder played 34 games last season at the end of the season in the majors, averaging 2.9 points per game, terrific for a debut.  Gunnar has the upside to be one of the preeminent players in the game.  The Athletics have all the time in the world to be patient with him as he develops in the next couple years.  

Worst Asset: RP, Jefry Rodriguez.  I'm still baffled as to why Oakland has not cut Rodriguez in the past couple years.  He's not playing and still has $19m on the books for this year and the next.  GM Jonny could reduce that bill to $9.5m with one swift cut.  

Rookie to Watch: 1B, Triston Casas.  We've already mentioned Gunnar.  Logan O'Hoppe looks like their catcher for the next decade if everything pans out.  And yet, we'll be back to the rookie to watch from last season in Triston Casas after his 2022 campaign didn't quite work out.  He was projected for 3.66 points per game and 500+ points last season... and ended up appearing in less than 30 games and averaging 2.8 points per game, still fine for a rookie.  This year?  A 3.66 points per game projection and 500+ total points.  Fool me once, shame on me... fool me twice...

Outlook: Oakland's farm system is finally in the headlines after some tremendous internal growth last season.  Jonny has proven to be a great drafter and has built a system that should translate to wins... hopefully soon?  The Athletics haven't had a winning season since 2017 and aren't going to have one this season.  So when will they come back to relevance?  The answer probably lies in how quickly Henderson, Casas, O'Hoppe, and other talented prospects in the farm system can establish themselves.  Best case scenario for Oakland this that those three guys ball out in their rookie seasons.  They see some internal development from the pitching side to where the cupboard isn't absolutely bare next season.  Rodon is a good start, but I'm guessing they're more likely to trade him mid-season than keep for the next couple years.  Let's hope the Athletics draft high once more and enter next year looking like a possible 9-10 win team with upside for the playoffs by 2025.  

[Ken Rosenthal]

4. LOS ANGELES ANGELS

GM: Derrick
Fantrax Projection: 5,466 points
Farm Ranking: 3rd
Projected Record: 10-9

Memorable Off-Season Move: Getting under the cap by cutting a bunch of guys... seriously not much else going on in Anaheim.

Hitting (projected points by Fantrax): 

C: Will Smith (512)
1B: 
2B: Rodolfo Castro (312)
SS: Willy Adames (509)
3B: 
OF: Yordan Alvarez (658)
OF: Mike Trout (592)
OF: Ronald Acuna Jr. (581)
UT: Franmil Reyes (336)

BE: Oswaldo Cabrera (314)
BE: Francisco Alvarez (210)
BE:

Pitching (projected points by Fantrax):

SP: Framber Valdez (491)
SP: Sandy Alcantara (490)
SP: Julio Urias (475)
SP: Joe Ryan (373)
SP: Jesus Luzardo (360)

RP: Rafael Montero (251)
RP:
RP:
RP:
RP:

BE: Freddy Peralta (338)
BE: Zach Plesac (310)
BE:


Best Player: OF, Yordan Alvarez.  The slugger had his first 600 point season in 2022, and projections don't have him slowing down in 2023.  Yordan is the 8th best projected player in all of baseball this season.  After years of sitting in the shadow of Trout and Acuna Jr., Alvarez looks to be the best of the bunch this season.  He's only in his first year of arbitration and should be with the Angels for the long haul, supposing this team never, ever considers rebuilding.  The track record says no.

Best Asset: SP, Sandy Alcantara.  Yordan is the best asset.  Acuna Jr., Ryan, Valdez, Luzardo, Smith... all really good options.  Alcantara stands out after being the best pitcher in the game last season and having four years remaining of arbitration to stick around with the team.  Few are expecting him to repeat the incredible 585 point season he pitched last year, but he should be a consistent top 20 pitcher during his prime.  

Worst Asset: UT, Franmil Reyes.  Reyes is locked up for another $22m total over the next three seasons and isn't guaranteed to even be getting consistent at bats this coming season.  The power is in there for a bounce back.  But this could just as easily be dead weight by the end of the summer the Angels look to cut.  

Rookie to Watch: C, Francisco Alvarez.  Joe Ryan was their rookie to watch last year.  That turned out well.  The Angels have catcher Francisco Alvarez nearing his entrance to the lineup after a long wait.  Alvarez has terrific power and a solid hitting ability.  His defense behind the plate is up for debate, but LA has one of the best catchers in the league in Will Smith already behind the plate.  With how short this team is on depth, they need a big season from their prospects, Alvarez especially.  

Outlook: Los Angeles is the last remaining team to have never missed the post-season in BKDB history after eleven seasons.  Heading into year twelve, the odds are probably more against their favor than they've ever been.  The starting rotation will be about as good as any team in the league behind Framber Valdez and Sandy Alcantara.  The Angels in the outfield are the envy of the league with their star trio of Trout, Acuna Jr, and Alvarez.  The depth at the major league level has been an issue the last couple years.  They have no legitimate option at either of the corner positions.  The bullpen is the worst in the league.  Can the third ranked farm system come to the rescue and fill in some of the gaps?  I wouldn't pick the Angels to make the playoffs this year, but they have enough to definitely be in the conversation.  There's been questions about longtime GM Derrick's level of commitment to managing the club after a couple spotty drafts and lack of moves of the past couple of years.  A renewed effort on his part could be all this team needs to lock up their twelfth straight playoff birth.  If not, we could be looking for our second Angels GM in league history... not a great bet to think whoever comes in could do a better job than what has been done in Anaheim thus far.   

[Ken Rosenthal]

3. TEXAS RANGERS

GM: Ahmed
Fantrax Projection: 5,815 points
Farm Ranking: 12th
Projected Record: 11-8

Memorable Off-Season Move: Acquiring starter Jameson Taillon and shortstop Dansby Swanson via trade.  

Hitting (projected points by Fantrax): 

C: Danny Jansen (359)
1B: Luke Voit (348)
2B: Tommy Edman (522)
SS: Dansby Swanson (551)
3B: Yoan Moncada (400)
OF: Corbin Carroll (567)
OF: Michael Harris II (549)
OF: Adolis Garcia (536)
UT: Gleyber Torres (489)

BE: Eloy Jimenez (462)
BE: Kolten Wong (378)
BE: Myles Straw (373)
BE: Carter Kieboom (226)

Pitching (projected points by Fantrax):

SP: German Marquez (409)
SP: Jameson Taillon (392)
SP: Noah Syndergaard (297)
SP: Anthony DeSclafani (273)
SP: Grayson Rodriguez (259)

RP: Clay Holmes (257)
RP: Lou Trivino (215)
RP: Jordan Hicks (185)
RP: Tim Mayza (180)
RP:

BE: Dakota Hudson (219)
BE: 
BE:


Best Player: SS, Dansby Swanson.  The Rangers have a group of players projected to finish around 30-50th best in the league.  Dansby Swanson is arguably the best of the them.  He's the 7th best projected shortstop for next season after finishing 4th last year.  At 29 years old, Swanson is coming off back to back 500+ point seasons and should provide stability for the Rangers in 2023 as he plays out the last year of his ARB-B deal before hitting free agency next winter.  

Best Asset: OF, Corbin Carroll.  In this division, we have the two top prospects in all of baseball.  We've already heard about Gunnar, but Gunnar is usually topped on ranking lists by none other than outfielder Corbin Carroll.  Carroll is a great hitter who also adds speed as an element to his game.  Are projections crazy thinking he'll be a near 575 point player in his first season?  That seems like a high-end outcome, but I could be proven wrong.  Texas should be thrilled to have Carroll under contract for the next seven seasons.  

Worst Asset: 1B, Luke Voit.  Not a lot of bad salaries on this Rangers roster.  GM Ahmed has done a good job of maximizing things as they seek to get to the post-season. Voit, with an unstable roll in 2023, is likely overpaid at $7.4m for this year and the next.  I'm sure Texas would've loved to have one more starting pitcher with that money.  

Rookie to Watch: SP, Grayson Rodriguez.  Grayson was the rookie to watch last year before losing it to injuries.  He's back and ready to roll.  So... I'll just copy what I said last year: Everyone is hoping we see the debut of Grayson Rodriguez in 2022, arguably the top pitching prospect in today's game. His fastball nearly touches 100, and he pairs it with a great slider and changeup. It's hard to predict any pitching prospect has true ace upside, but Rodriguez is as close as he gets. Will he take the league by storm? Or, like so many high end top 20 pitching prospects in the last couple years (Whitley, Gore, McKay, Luzardo, Honeywell, Reyes, etc.) will he be another player that has us all wondering what could've been...?

Outlook: The Rangers won the division in 2017 and haven't been back to the playoffs since.  They have shown they are determined to build a competitive group ready to bring this franchise back to the playoffs.  Texas' offense is a definite strength.  They rank top five in the league in projected hitting points.  The outfield trio of Adolis, Carroll, and last year's rookie sensation, Michael Harris II, are a big part of that.  Swanson and Edman is a great middle infield.  The rotation is going to be what makes or breaks it for the Rangers in 2023.  Marquez and Taillon are talented, but aren't suited, from what they've shown, to carry a rotation.  Noah Syndergaard is your #3?  Yikes.  It's going to be really close in the race for the American League playoff bracket.  The Rangers have a great chance, but will likely have to get to 13 wins to guarantee a spot in the competitive AL this year.  

[Ken Rosenthal]

2. HOUSTON ASTROS

GM: Ahmed
Fantrax Projection: 6,240 points
Farm Ranking: 28th
Projected Record: 12-7

Memorable Off-Season Move: Acquiring starter Martin Perez from Pittsburgh.  

Hitting (projected points by Fantrax): 

C: Yasmani Grandal (247)
1B: Jose Abreu (517)
2B: Nicky Lopez (288)
SS: Adalberto Mondesi (366)
3B: Alex Bregman (566)
OF: Mookie Betts (652)
OF: Mark Canha (432)
OF: Andrew McCutchen (407)
UT: Ty France (476)

BE: Tyrone Taylor (367)
BE: Aledmys Diaz (275)
BE: Nick Solak (203)
BE: Nick Fortes (152)
BE: Brian Serven (120)

Pitching (projected points by Fantrax):

SP: Joe Musgrove (460)
SP: Miles Mikolas (431)
SP: Martin Perez (411)
SP: Alex Cobb (389)
SP: JT Brubaker (352)

RP: Dylan Floro (284)
RP: Peter Fairbanks (246)
RP: Hector Neris (242)
RP: Dylan Coleman (201)
RP:

BE: Carlos Carrasco (346)
BE: Bailey Falter (207)
BE:


Best Player: OF, Mookie Betts.  Mookie just keeps churning out big seasons. He's been above 4 points per game every year since his second season in 2015.  He's projected for 4.6 and another 650 points this season, 9th best in baseball.  Betts is under contract for two more seasons at just over $30m per season.  We won't mention him in the best asset category, but with the current makeup of this roster, he's probably the asset the Astros could get the most for should they ever decide to rebuild.  

Best Asset: 1B, Ty France.  Couldn't find a pre-ARB guy or prospect you'd rather have than France on his four year sub-$10m deal, even if it's a B ARB contract.  Not ideal, but a solid contributor for this Astros team who should be able to fill some roles in the infield while providing pop at the plate.  I have a feeling by next season, GM Will will have secured someone better for this slot on his roster.  Well... France was it last year, so maybe not.  

Worst Asset: C, Yasmani Grandal.  Grandal is a fine catcher, but the Astros are paying him like he's one of the best in the game this season.  They can't afford to have that much tied up in a non-plus contributor with this roster.  

Rookie to Watch: OF, Ji-Hwan Bae.  Bae could be a regular utility guy... maybe.  Julien would've been there top guy, but he's now playing for another team.  The Astros have a fair draft record, so while the farm system is pretty bare at present, they have nowhere to go but up in the next couple years.  

Outlook: As far as regular season success, few have had as many wins as the Astros over the past handful of years.  The long-awaited playoff success is still on the horizon though, and Houston hopes this can finally be the year.  The offense is led by two stars in Bregman and Betts.  Abreu has been steady for years as well.  Depth on offense shouldn't be an issue so long as the injury bug doesn't hit.  The strength of this team is likely the top of their rotation.  Musgrove/Mikolas/Perez is a dynamic top three, and Houston goes seven deep with potential for more.  The bullpen could use a boost, but Will regularly picks up guys as they ascend to roles mid-season.  This is far from the best Astros team we've seen in the past handful of years.  The constant pushing of the roster towards competing has turned the treasure chest of talent into a bank account that's a couple unexpected payments away from over-drafting.  We could see the Astros make a deep playoff run, or head for a rebuild by the trade deadline.  They're certainly one of the teams that will be most interesting to follow in 2023 due to the wide range of outcomes.  

[Ken Rosenthal]

1. SEATTLE MARINERS

GM: Phil
Fantrax Projection: 7,346 points
Farm Ranking: 13th
Projected Record: 17-2

Memorable Off-Season Move: Trading away Tyler O'Neill, German Marquez, Dakota Hudson, Myles Straw, and Clay Holmes in October.    

Hitting (projected points by Fantrax): 

C: Dalton Varsho (526)
1B: Matt Olson (651)
2B: Adam Frazier (364)
SS: Bo Bichette (617)
3B: Ryan McMahon (423)
OF: Fernando Tatis Jr. (587)
OF: Hunter Renfroe (471)
OF: Riley Greene (450)
UT: Wander Franco (502)

BE: Ryan Mountcastle (498)
BE: Nate Lowe (486)
BE: Brandon Marsh (328)
BE: Jose Trevino (210)
BE: David Fletcher (144)
BE: Reese McGuire (138)

Pitching (projected points by Fantrax):

SP: Corbin Burnes (530)
SP: Cristian Javier (433)
SP: Ranger Suarez (365)
SP: Aaron Civale (338)
SP: Austin Gomber (300)

RP: Hunter Brown (330)
RP: Scott Barlow (315)
RP: Daniel Bard (314)
RP: Dillon Tate (222)
RP: Brusdar Graterol (202)

BE: Ken Waldichuk (266)
BE: Tucker Davidson (235)
BE: Kyle Bradish (230)
BE: Aaron Ashby (226)
BE: Hayden Wesneski (194)
BE: Bryce Elder (193)
BE: Adrian Houser (185)
BE: Brock Burke (181)
BE: Genesis Cabrera (175)
BE: Dinelson Lamet (164)
BE: Dennis Santana (164)
BE: Chris Stratton (155)
BE: Jonathan Hernandez (152)


Best Player: SP, Corbin Burnes.  Has anyone been more dominant on the mound in the past two years than Corbin Burnes?  The answer is no.  Burnes is the top projected pitcher in baseball headed into the 2023 season.  He projects to average 16.5 points per start, tied with deGrom for best in the league, albeit with more durability.  Seattle has Burnes under contract for four more seasons.  Can they get a third championship with him at the top of the rotation?  

Best Asset: OF, Fernando Tatis Jr..  It's been an up and down first few seasons for Tatis Jr., but Seattle's fortunes worked out perfectly, gaining an extra year of team control due to Tatis Jr.'s suspension and winning the World Series anyways.  The Mariners have the young star for five more seasons and won't pay him more than $800k until next fall.  He'll miss the first couple weeks due to the suspension, but is still slated for nearly 600 points, top 25 in the league.  

Worst Asset: RP, Chris Stratton.  There's really not a bad deal on the roster.  The Mariners are a well-oiled machine.  Stratton is currently.... 11th on the reliever depth chart and making the 14th most money on the team.  Okay, we're definitely overanalyzing here.  Good job, Phil.  

Rookie to Watch: SP/RP, Hunter Brown.  Brown could be the next great pitcher to join the Mariners rotation.  He's projected for 330 points in his first season.  He vacillated between the bullpen and rotation last year and could do more of the same this year.  In all fairness, it might be more beneficial to this team to have a multi-inning reliever with SP eligibility with the depth they already have in the rotation.

Outlook: Seattle has won back to back championships and sits atop the throne of Base Knock Dynasty Baseball.  The farm system is still in the upper half of the league.  Many of their best players are under control for 3+ seasons.  And the rest of the league has plunged into despair (well, not yet).  The offense is spectacular up and down the lineup.  Adam Frazier, a reliable starter, is the weakest hitter.  They have three first baseman in the top 17 projected for the upcoming season.  Nate Lowe and Ryan Mountcastle will be fighting to share at bats at the UT with Wander Franco.  Corbin Burnes is the star of the rotation.  Javier and Suarez are nice arms.  And then it's a LOT of depth behind it.  Deep bullpen too.  The Mariners are right up there as one of the favorites to win the World Series in 2023.  What a run.