2023 NL WEST PREVIEW

[Ken Rosenthal]

5. ARIZONA D'BACKS

GM: Kyle
Fantrax Projection: 5,092 points
Farm Ranking: 18th
Projected Record: 9-10

Memorable Off-Season Move: Trading for Wil Myers from Philadelphia.  

Hitting (projected points by Fantrax): 

C: William Contreras (358)
1B: Wil Myers (460)
2B: Luis Rengifo (308)
SS: Xander Boegarts (501)
3B: Spencer Steer (374)
OF: Seiya Suzuki (453)
OF: Mitch Haniger (416)
OF: Austin Meadows (388)
UT: Patrick Wisdom (327)

BE: Santiago Espinal (289)
BE: Nick Ahmed (280)
BE: Leody Taveras (252)
BE: Andrelton Simmons (159)
BE: Jorge Alfaro (157)

Pitching (projected points by Fantrax):

SP: Chris Bassitt (426)
SP: Jon Gray (361)
SP: Dustin May (331)
SP: Yusei Kikuchi (267)
SP: David Peterson (225)

RP: Jorge Lopez (247)
RP: Joe Barlow (181)
RP: Bryan Baker (173)
RP: Erasmo Ramirez (145)
RP: 

BE: Trevor Williams (196)
BE:
BE:


Best Player: SS, Xander Boegarts.   Aside from one breakout 711 point season, Bogaerts has been pretty consistently in the 500-550 range at shortstop for the last half-decade.  Still, Boegarts isn't a top 10 projected shortstop.  The D'backs are lacking the firepower at the top end of the roster, despite a fair amount of depth.  Boegarts has two years left on his deal and should stay very productive in the middle infield.  

Best Asset: SP, Dustin May.  Does anyone have better hair in baseball than Dustin May?  No longer Arizona gave up so much for him last summer.  May looks ready to assume a spot in the D'backs rotation to start the season.  While he is projected for 331 points, a solid number, many agree he has the upside for 100 more, if not 150 more points than that in a season.  Here's to hoping he stays healthy.  He's somehow still a rookie despite having pitched in four MLB seasons.  In the only year he would've exceeded eligibility, BKDB's season was cancelled due to COVID.  Arizona is going to get him right in his prime for very cheap.  

Worst Asset: OF, Seiya Suzuki.  This isn't a terrible contract, but it's definitely an overpay considering his projection right now.  Suzuki is the 18th projected outfielder for this coming season.  If he hits that, I get the contract.  Last year, he was only at 3 points per game though, which is definitely not worth $20m+ per year.  We'll see if the improvement comes in his sophomore season.  

Rookie to Watch: 3B, Spencer Steer.  Steer is in line to be the Diamondbacks starting third baseman as just a rookie.  He wasn't much to write home about in his brief 28 game debut last fall, but projections have him at 374 points already, 3.25 per game.  He could be the long-term solution at the hot corner if he can make anticipated improvement from there in future seasons.  

Outlook: Arizona finished top ten in points last season and won 13 games, second best mark for them in league history.  The offense is average behind Boegarts.  There isn't another standout at any position, but they have set starters at every position with the exception of maybe second base.  I'm not sure on Rengifo.  The rotation could be above average, or it could be mediocre.  May's performance will go a long way.  Bassitt and Gray is a great one-two punch at the top.  The bullpen looks shallow, but that's an easy area to fix. Heading into 2023, Arizona is projected for 1,000 less points than they finished with last season.  Are the projections off?  Or are they poised to take a 3-4 game step backwards after such a highlight of a season?  Anything can happen in the ultra-competitive NL West.  

[Ken Rosenthal]

4. SAN DIEGO PADRES

GM: Denver
Fantrax Projection: 5,313 points
Farm Ranking: 29th
Projected Record: 10-9

Memorable Off-Season Move: Somehow resigning star Nolan Arenado to a three year, $96m deal.   

Hitting (projected points by Fantrax): 

C: Austin Barnes (123)
1B: Pete Alonso (649)
2B: Trevor Story (217)
SS: Mauricio Dubon (167)
3B: Nolan Arenado (560)
OF: Taylor Ward (469)
OF: Randal Grichuk (406)
OF: Jake Fraley (330)
UT: Jonathan Schoop (338)

BE:
BE:
BE:

Pitching (projected points by Fantrax):

SP: Marco Gonzales (377)
SP: Kyle Freeland (368)
SP: Corey Kluber (365)
SP: Tyler Anderson (363)
SP: Jeffrey Springs (357)

RP: Adam Cimber (218)
RP: Josh Fleming (181)
RP: Matt Strahm (159)
RP: Phil Bickford (158)
RP: 

BE: James Kaprielian (319)
BE: Dean Kreme (280)
BE:


Best Player: 3B, Nolan Arenado.  Arenado has been a beast nearly as long as this league has been in existence.  I don't think anyone had Arenado pegged to return to San Diego with their limited cap space entering free agency, but the Padres somehow did it.  It was about all they were able to swing this off-season, but Arenado at least is a mega-valuable player, whether on the field or in the trade market this season.  His per game averages are only a hair off his peak from 5-6 years ago.  Projections seem to be factoring in a regression that hasn't actually manifested itself on the field yet.  Give me Nolan for 600+ this year.  

Best Asset: 1B, Pete Alonso.  You could argue Alonso is the best player, but with four years of arbitration left, he's certainly this team's best asset.  After a resurgent 2022 campaign that scored 670 points, the 28-year old slugger assured doubters that his 700+ point 2019 campaign was no fluke.  I can't imagine what Alonso would get on the trade market this trade deadline should things go south in America's Finest City.  

Worst Asset: SP, Jakob Junis.  Junis looks like he might grab a swingman role and provide an occasional start or two this season.  That's fine.  But with how strapped the Padres roster is for cash, that $5m could be spent better elsewhere.  They could've grabbed a semi-decent starter in the middle infield or at catcher.  Big needs.  

Rookie to Watch: SS, Braden Shewmake.  I might have put no one in this category a month ago.  However, Shewmake may be a miracle answer to the Padres problem at shortstop this season.  Somehow he may just be in line to start the season as the starter, giving this club a guy with regular at bats.  Will he last the whole season?  

Outlook: If I had to pick a team slated to be in the thick of the NL playoff race to fall out completely by mid-season, I'd pick the Padres.  The weakness at catcher, middle infield, their third outfielder and utility spots is glaring.  The bullpen is shallow.  The Friars do have one of the deeper rotations in the league, but their highest projected started (Gonzales), doesn't have crack 400 points.  Those kind of guys can lose spots in a rotation with a much higher frequency.  The farm system is at the bottom of the barrell after once being one of the more solid systems in the league.  All those trades got the Padres back to the playoffs last season for the first time since 2016.  Unless they can get creative, it might take another retool this season to get them back on track.  Wouldn't be a bad time to reset with how competitive the NL West is.  

[Ken Rosenthal]

3. LOS ANGELES DODGERS

GM: Scott
Fantrax Projection: 5,720 points
Farm Ranking: 15th
Projected Record: 11-8

Memorable Off-Season Move: Acquiring first baseman Paul Goldschmidt from Baltimore.  

Hitting (projected points by Fantrax): 

C: JT Realmuto (498)
1B: Paul Goldschmidt (635)
2B: Jake Cronenworth (545)
SS: Elvis Andrus (343)
3B: Ke'Bryan Hayes (439)
OF: Lars Nootbar (424)
OF: Byron Buxton (419)
OF: Edward Olivares (371)
UT: Bubba Thompson (339)

BE: J.D. Davis (320)
BE: Lamonte Wade Jr. (270)
BE: Nolan Jones (268)
BE: Elias Diaz (222)
BE: Bo Naylor (162)

Pitching (projected points by Fantrax):

SP: Kevin Gausman (465)
SP: Brady Singer (427)
SP: Kenta Maeda (315)
SP: Zack Greinke (303)
SP: Alex Wood (271)

RP: Jordan Romano (368)
RP: Shawn Armstrong (156)
RP: Duane Underwood (153)
RP: 
RP: 

BE: Luis Cessa (242)
BE: Ryan Feltner (181)
BE:


Best Player: 1B, Paul Goldschmidt. Getting Paul Goldschmidt for James Triantos, a 1st, and a 7th might be the deal of the off-season.  Can you imagine if the Orioles just kept him?  They'd be the top projected team in the league.  Can you imagine if the Dodgers hadn't made that trade?  Goldschmidt is a vital part of this Dodgers team who is staving off the injury bug already.  Goldy has been above 600 points in all but one of the past seven seasons.  He doesn't look like he'll slow down soon.  Hopefully, the Dodgers will be able to afford to re-sign him this off-season.  

Best Asset: SP, Brady Singer.  A lot of good options to choose from this deep Dodgers team.  I went with Brady Singer, who is in year three of team control (5 remaining total) and is filling a key void in a shallow Dodgers rotation right now.  It was his breakout campaign at 14.1 points per start last season, and projections like him to improve in 2023.  I can't wait for this rotation next year when Baz and Buehler come back.  Get ready National League.  

Worst Asset: OF, Jake Cave.  Cave is on here for two reasons: 1. The MLB Twins kept him for... two seasons longer than he deserved and was horrible to watch.  2. The Dodgers are desperate for pitching....have lots of depth in the outfield... and are committing to pay him $2m+ to get a handful of at bats this year.  Should've cut him.  

Rookie to Watch: C, Bo Naylor.  Well, this would've most certainly been Shane Baz had he not went out for the season.  Such a bummer.  Bo Naylor is an intriguing bat to watch.  He looks like the obvious answer as Realmuto's replacement in a couple years.  Perhaps he can be a backup this year, get more of a workload in 2024, and then the Dodgers can send Realmuto elsewhere the off-season prior to the 2025 season.  That would be ideal from a roster building standpoint.  

Outlook: This team would've been a clear challenger to the Giants in the NL West had they had Buehler and Baz fully healthy.  Those guys would likely project for around 900 combined points.  That's the difference between 13 and 7th in projections.  Unfortunately, LA is left with a shaky rotation, okay bullpen, and great lineup to try to finally get to the playoffs for the first time since 2014 after two close calls in each of the past two seasons.  That was quite the sentence.  No time to edit.   Perhaps with their solid farm system, they'll be able to rely on a couple rookies to backfill the pitching depth needed.  One thing I think they can accomplish?  The Dodgers haven't finished higher than 3rd in the division since 2014.  They outmatch Colorado, San Diego, and Arizona in depth.  So if I had to pick one to finish second (although it's crazy close), I'd go with this team.  2024 should be really exciting.  2023 will be fun, but a wild card playoff spot is their upside for now.  

[Ken Rosenthal]

2. COLORADO ROCKIES

GM: Alex
Fantrax Projection: 5,733 points
Farm Ranking: 20th
Projected Record: 11-8

Memorable Off-Season Move: Trading ace Aaron Nola to Chicago for a package of prospects.   

Hitting (projected points by Fantrax): 

C: Joey Bart (235)
1B: Josh Bell (493)
2B: DJ LeMaheiu (418)
SS: Brandon Crawford (348)
3B: Josh Donaldson (400)
OF: Michael Brantley (370)
OF: Nick Gordon (352)
OF: Eddie Rosario (314)
UT: J.D. Martinez (490)

BE: Nelson Cruz (326)
BE: Royce Lewis (195)
BE: Jacob Stallings (192)

Pitching (projected points by Fantrax):

SP: Andrew Heaney (313)
SP: Madison Bumgarner (303)
SP: Kyle Hendricks (297)
SP: Antonio Senzatela (272)
SP: Wade Miley (252)

RP: Alexis Diaz (269)
RP: Tyler Rogers (258)
RP: Taylor Rogers (231)
RP: Tanner Houck (225)
RP: Yimi Garcia (223)

BE: Mike Minor (254)
BE: Wilmer Font (209)
BE: Ian Kennedy (198)
BE: Bailey Ober (197)
BE: Ryan Brasier (192)
BE: Michael Pineda (186)
BE: Eli Morgan (173)
BE: Joely Rodriguez (152)
BE: Jarlin Garcia (147)


Best Player: UT, J.D. Martinez.  Not great for a best player, but it'll have to do for Colorado.  Martinez is just a season removed from being a near 600 point player, but things fell off a bit for him after a hot start last season.  At age 35, it isn't impossible that he has a season or two left in him towards his peak, but most would probably bet against it.  Josh Bell is another option here, but he's projected for less points per game than JDM this season.  Not a lot of star power on this roster right now.  

Best Asset: OF, Druw Jones.  The prize return in the Aaron Nola trade.  Jones is a consensus top 10 prospect in baseball with some predicting he could finish close to #1 by season's end if all goes right.  A guy who was just drafted isn't a great sign for a club though as a team's best asset.  Jones is at least 18 months away from debuting, more likely 2+ years.  Royce Lewis has a chance to seize this spot by mid-season if he looks healthy.  

Worst Asset: 2B, DJ LeMahieu.  DJ is a productive player, but vastly overpaid at $26m for this season and the next.  That's part of the reason why Texas was willing to hand over his contract to the Rockies for free this off-season in a trade.  The Rockies have a couple other good candidates for this spot with old veterans Kyle Hendricks and Madison Bumgarner overpaid and shaky in the rotation.  JDM is also overpaid if he's going to score less than 500 points.  

Rookie to Watch: SS, Royce Lewis.  Almost went with Luis Ortiz, who is a candidate for the rotation this year.  But Royce Lewis flashed upside that was star-like mid-season before he tore up his knee.  The road to recovery is still underway, but the Rockies may have him in the lineup by the middle of the summer.  He averaged 3.2 points per game in his debut in 12 games last year with a .300 average.  Could be great.  

Outlook:  Colorado has yet again turned over the roster in the off-season.  What's new.  This time, all the chips haven't been pushed towards the MLB roster, and the 20th ranked farm system, while not great, is a nice start from the 28th-30th spot they've lived for the past half decade.  While San Diego looks like a possible seller in this division, I would also bet money on the Rockies doing so as well by mid-season.  The offense is propped up by a lot of aging veterans who are nice starters, but nothing to write home about (Donaldson, Brantley, Rosario, JDM, DJ, Crawford, Cruz... my goodness).  The rotation is more of the same (a lot of old guys who don't have much left in the tank), with the exception of Houck and Heaney, who both have the upside of a mid-rotation starter.  The bullpen is deep projection-wise, but is probably just slightly above league average in reality.  The Rockies will be in the mix for the wild card if everything breaks right... the dinosaurs stay healthy and the couple prospects they do have make an impact.  I can't foresee much more than 11-12 wins though with this group.

[Ken Rosenthal]

1. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

GM: Das
Fantrax Projection: 7,554 points
Farm Ranking: 19th
Projected Record: 16-3

Memorable Off-Season Move: Nearly acquiring Rafael Devers from St. Louis.... ha.  Actually acquiring Justin Dunn and Mike Soroka from Arizona.   

Hitting (projected points by Fantrax): 

C: Gary Sanchez (322)
1B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (654)
2B: Andres Gimenez (496)
SS: Tim Anderson (445)
3B: Yandy Diaz (446)
OF: Aaron Judge (689)
OF: Juan Soto (678)
OF: George Springer (561)
UT: Nico Hoerner (432)

BE: Gavin Sheets (342)
BE: Hunter Dozier (334)
BE: Eric Haase (273)
BE: Brian Anderson (268)
BE: Bryce Harper (260)
BE: Jose Barrero (196)
BE: Seby Zavala (162)

Pitching (projected points by Fantrax):

SP: Shane McClanahan (455)
SP: Triston McKenzie (453)
SP: Luis Garcia (430)
SP: Lucas Giolito (420)
SP: Jose Berrios (409)

RP: Josh Hader (358)
RP: David Bednar (258)
RP: Alex Lange (246)
RP: Trevor Stephan (229)
RP: Alec Mills (220)

BE: Kyle Muller (277)
BE: Mike Soroka (229)
BE: Domingo Acevedo (215)
BE: Griffin Jax (201)
BE: Aaron Loup (198)
BE: Bryan Abreu (182)
BE: Mitch White (181)
BE: Justin Dunn (179)
BE: Keegan Thompson (179)
BE: Jonathan Loaisiga (170)


Best Player: OF, Aaron Judge.  The trade of the deadline last summer was the San Francisco Giants bringing Aaron Judge back to his homeland from Pittsburgh amidst his historic season.  Judge scored 879 points last season, 70 more than the previous record for points in a season by any player (Ohtani excluded).  The Giants are thrilled to have him in their already loaded lineup for the next two seasons.  I don't expect Judge to put him nearly 900 points again, but we can safely expect 650-700 from the slugger in 2023.  

Best Asset: 1B, Vladimir Guerrero Jr..  Guerrero finds himself the team's best asset yet again as he keeps on slugging.  2022 was another big season for Vladdy Jr, who now has more than 1,300 points over the last two seasons combined.  The Giants have him under team control for four more seasons as they look to bring home their first title in franchise history.  It'll be fun to watch the race between Judge and Vladdy for most points this year.  Both are projected as top ten players this season.  Oh, the Giants also have Juan Soto, who is in the top ten too.  Man.  

Worst Asset: C, Gary Sanchez.  Gary carries a nice projection right now at 320 points per game.  The problem?  He's not signed to an MLB team and has no role at the moment.  That's the one big weakness on the roster.  The Giants are hoping he signs, but if he doesn't, that's six million down the drain they could've used elsewhere.  

Rookie to Watch: SP, Kyle Muller.  There's a solid group of rookies that should make an impact this year.  Yainer Diaz is probably my favorite upside-wise, but Muller is a lock for playing time.  Projections have him at 26 starts in his rookie season, which is terrific.  10.6 points per start?  Not as great.  We'll see if Muller is a long-term solution in the Giants rotation or just a nice story in 2023.  

Outlook: Three division titles in the past four years.  A 2017 NLCS appearance.  A 2021 World Series appearance.  The points record.  It's been an incredible time to be a Giants fan over the past half decade.  The one thing they're still chasing?  A World Series title.  This is as good a year as any for this team to capture it.  The lineup is the best in baseball behind Judge, Vladdy, and Soto.  Bryce Harper should be back by mid-season to add another significant bat in the utility spot.  If anything holds this team back, I think it will be the rotation.  Few are better than Shane McClanahan, and I really like their top five (Shane, McKenzie, Garcia, Giolito, Berrios).  But it really falls off after that.  If they could make one move in-season, I think it would have to be for an ace.  Could this team be a good fit for Rodon?  The Giants are going to win the NL West for the fourth time in five seasons barring a massive round of injuries.  The big question is just playoff success once again.  Can they finally bring it home?