2023 AL CENTRAL PREVIEW

[Ken Rosenthal]

5. MINNESOTA TWINS

GM: Matt
Fantrax Projection: 3,668 points
Farm Ranking: 21st
Projected Record: 5-14

Memorable Off-Season Move: Re-signing first baseman Anthony Rizzo to a two year, $65m contract.    

Hitting (projected points by Fantrax): 

C: Salvador Perez (415)
1B: Anthony Rizzo (497)
2B: 
SS: 
3B: Manny Machado (638)
OF: Teoscar Hernandez (511)
OF: Ramon Laureano (424)
OF: Juan Yepez (333)
UT: Brett Baty (369)

BE: 
BE:
BE:

Pitching (projected points by Fantrax):

SP: Sean Manaea (405)
SP: Tyler Mahle (390)
SP: 
SP:
SP:

RP: Giovanny Gallegos (269)
RP: Alex Vesia (169)
RP:
RP:
RP:

BE: 
BE:
BE:


Best Player: 3B, Manny Machado.  Now 30 years old, Machado had his best season since 2018 last year, scoring 634 points before securing a three year extension with Twins for $63m.  Manny is the 13th best projected player in the game heading into the 2023 season after finishing 8th in the league in scoring last year.  Minnesota should enjoy having him around, but this roster around is just terrible.  I imagine Machado must be a possible trade candidate this season.  We're still waiting on the Twins to pick a direction with this roster.

Best Asset: 3B, Manny Machado.  Sadly, Machado is also the best asset on this team on a solid deal at just over $20m a season.  That's a reasonable deal, though not among the best values in the league.  It says more about this roster than about the asset itself.   

Worst Asset: SP, Trevor Bauer.  The Twins got Bauer for 1 year, $20m.... and it's doubtful he even pitches in 2023.  I'm not sure gambling on a ostracized player was the best way to spend their money in free agency with a mostly empty middle infield, rotation, and bullpen.  

Rookie to Watch: 3B, Brett Baty.  Brett Baty may be a big bright spot on the Twins.  A top 25 prospect in the game with the ability to impact the game from the plate, Minnesota may have their second franchise third baseman before they know it.  He's projected for 369 points this season and could be a yearly bet for 500+ sooner than later. 

Outlook: This is pretty much the same roster as last year with a slightly worse MLB and slightly better MiLB.  I suppose slow and steady wins the race eventually, but man has this been like turning the titanic since GM Matt took over.  Are they rebuilding?  You have to assume so I suppose at this point.  I wonder if this is the year Rizzo, Machado, Mahle, Laureano, etc. get moved.  If not, this regime clearly has a different strategy than what is typical in this league.  The offense is led by a couple of veterans on the hot corners in Rizzo and Machado.  Sal Perez is one of the games premier catchers that can hit.  Teoscar Hernandez is an above average outfielder.  The pitching is an absolute disaster.  Bauer returning wouldn't even get them to average.  Minnesota is heading for another long season and hopefully another high pick in next year's draft.  It's only be two full seasons since their last playoff apperance, but I have a feeling this could be at least a 5 year rebuild.

[Ken Rosenthal]

4. KANSAS CITY ROYALS

GM: Bill
Fantrax Projection: 4,105 points
Farm Ranking: 22nd
Projected Record: 7-12

Memorable Off-Season Move: Trading Max Scherzer to the Nationals for prospect Marco Luciano and picks.     

Hitting (projected points by Fantrax): 

C: Christian Vazquez (272)
1B: Miguel Sano (238)
2B: Marcus Semien (604)
SS: 
3B: Jonathan Villar (227)
OF: Cedric Mullins (565)
OF: Trent Grisham (417)
OF: Manny Margot (375)
UT: Vaughn Grissom (466)

BE: T.J. Friedl (346)
BE: Jared Kelenic (316)
BE:

Pitching (projected points by Fantrax):

SP: Drew Smyly (230)
SP: Jose Quintana (154)
SP: 
SP:
SP:

RP: Jason Adam (312)
RP: Andres Munoz (305)
RP: James Karinchak (218)
RP: Colin McHugh (218)
RP: Diego Castillo (177)

BE: Jimmy Herget (169)
BE:
BE:


Best Player: 2B, Marcus Semien.  The 21st best projected player in 2023, Marcus Semien is one of the games best middle infielders.  It wasn't quite the 738 point explosion in 2021, but Semien is still a valuable player even at his $32m mark.  He's a free agent after the season and, I'm guessing, will get a contract extension from the Royals.  Or maybe he's traded.  It's hard to predict what Bill is going to do.  The Royals have toed the line between 5-11 wins for years.  

Best Asset: 2B, Vaughn Grissom.  Six months ago this looked a lot better.  Grissom is for some reason starting the season in the minors, but considering his terrific production in 41 games last year, the expectation is that he'll be a mainstay, likely at shortstop, for Kansas City by mid-season.  Projections have him for 3.69 points per game, inching him closer to 4 points per game, right where Semien was last season for reference.  Grissom is just entering year two of seven years of team control.  Great piece.    

Worst Asset: SP, Jose Quintana.  I actually liked the deal in free agency, but now Quintana is going to miss most of the season, not expected back until late July.  We all know these injuries can easily stretch a couple more weeks from one minor set back.  That would put us at.... the playoffs in our league.  For a team that has no starters really beyond Quintana, this is rough.  

Rookie to Watch: 3B, Marco Luciano.  I think there's guys closer to the majors than Luciano, but I really think he'll be up by mid-season.  Gut call.  Will he be production right away?  His swing appears to need some work in order to make better contact.  The power is certainly there though.  Maybe he rides a hot streak through the end of the summer and turns in a great rookie campaign.  Wide range of outcomes for this guy.  He's gotta be good, KC gave up Scherzer with him as the centerpiece.  

Outlook: Kansas City made a surprise return to the playoffs last season, securing a wild card before falling in the first round.  The Royals have taken a step backwards entering 2023, losing Scherzer via trade and others to free agency.  The lineup is okay.  Mullins, Grisham, Semien, and Grissom is a solid group, but the rest of the spots don't look great.  Maybe Jared Kelenic can make a sophomore swing up to relevance and regain his former top prospect status.  The pitching is the real problem.  Man, it is just terrible, especially following the Quintana injury.  There may be weeks where they're getting ten less starts than their opponent.  The Royals aren't going to be a playoff team again this season.  They've drafted pretty well historically; they need to focus on getting this farm system clearly back up into the upper half of the league.  Being 7-12 with a bottom third farm system is the worst place to be.  

[Ken Rosenthal]

3. DETROIT TIGERS

GM: Jon
Fantrax Projection: 5,490 points
Farm Ranking: 16th
Projected Record: 10-9

Memorable Off-Season Move: Trading for Dylan Cease from Toronto for a package of prospects.

Hitting (projected points by Fantrax): 

C: James McCann (161)
1B: Spencer Torkelson (406)
2B: Whit Merrifield (431)
SS: Trea Turner (685)
3B: Josh Rojas (447)
OF: Brandon Nimmo (496)
OF: Harrison Bader (417)
OF: Avisail Garcia (341)
UT: Oswald Peraza (360)

BE: David Peralta (332)
BE: Dylan Moore (260)
BE: Tomas Nido (125)

Pitching (projected points by Fantrax):

SP: Dylan Cease (504)
SP: Eric Lauer (352)
SP: Dylan Bundy (281)
SP: Michael Wacha (274)
SP: Tarik Skubal (227)

RP: Jose Leclerc (237)
RP: Andrew Chafin (192)
RP: Jalen Beeks (159)
RP: Keegan Akin (154)
RP: Joe Kelly (147)

BE: Matt Manning (199)
BE: Caleb Ferguson (146)
BE: Lucas Luetge (144)


Best Player: SS, Trea Turner. Turner is the fourth highest projected player in the league this year.  He'll most certainly be in line for a massive pay day at the end of the year.  But in 2023, the Tigers are hoping to ride his talents to a playoff birth in an increasingly competitive American League.  Turner was the league's best shortstop last year and is projected to finish the same next season.  With how Detroit has built up this roster of the past couple of years, I don't think Turner is another guy we should anticipate being traded on these middle of the pack teams.  

Best Asset: SP, Dylan Cease.  One of the bigger deals of the off-season, the Tigers swooped in and acquired one of the league's best pitchers in Dylan Cease away from in-league opponent Toronto.  He comes with four years of team control remaining in arbitration.  Cease finished as the 9th best pitcher in the league last year and projects to be 5th in 2023 at 504 points.  Detroit got just what they needed in a frontline pitcher.  The return package wasn't anything out of this world either. Good move by GM Jon.

Worst Asset: OF, Jake Meyers.  $7m+ for two years is a lot for a guy projected for less than 200 points this season.  He's a fringe fourth outfielder at this point that's way overpaid.  I'm not sure if it's a cuttable contract, but you would imagine they could do some more productive things with the $3.5m they'd save on the in-season free agency market.  

Rookie to Watch: SS, Oswald Peraza.  Brandon Pfaadt gets an honorable mention here.  Both on talent and having a wonderful name.  Christian Encarnacion-Strand also had a massive spring.  Peraza though is the most likely to get consistent at bats this season and slots in as Detroit's opening day utility man.  This trio of prospects could have a huge impact by year's end.  

Outlook: The reshaping of the roster under GM Jon, now entering his fourth season has gone fairly well.  The team has gone 32-25 over the past three seasons, had a 6,000 point season, won the AL Central once.  The dust has settled though, and it's time to see what the Tigers are made of the next couple of years.  The offense is banking on Turner balling out once again this season.  Whit Merrifield has the upside to hit 500 points on the other side of the infield.  A lot is riding on the development of Spencer Torkleson.  He was named the team's best asset last season and projected by many to eclipse 500 points.  After a dreadful 2022 year, he's less than league average as a starter at 1B.  Can he reclaim some of the production that led him to be picked at the top of the draft years ago?  The rotation behind Cease is just okay.  There's some upside for more in Skubal and Manning... who we've been waiting on development with for forever.  The Tigers will be right in the thick of the American League playoff race.  The division might be a little out of reach this year with the White Sox rapid ascent, but this has the beginnings of the makings of a sustainable contender.  Watch out for those three rookies especially.  I think those guys will all have a big impact.  

[Ken Rosenthal]

2. CLEVELAND GUARDIANS

GM: Thomas
Fantrax Projection: 5,986 points
Farm Ranking: 30th
Projected Record: 12-7

Memorable Off-Season Move: Acquiring Nathan Eovaldi and Rich Hill in a three team trade with Washington and Houston.

Hitting (projected points by Fantrax): 

C: Willson Contreras (384)
1B: Brandon Drury (407)
2B: Jonathan India (546)
SS: Kevin Newman (230)
3B: Jeimer Candelario (426)
OF: Starling Marte (479)
OF: Mike Yastrzemski (444)
OF: Alex Verdugo (442)
UT: Garrett Cooper (329)

BE: Eric Hosmer (305)
BE: Tyler Naquin (283)
BE: Christian Bethancourt (237)
BE: Austin Slater (229)
BE: Isiah Kiner-Falefa (201)

Pitching (projected points by Fantrax):

SP: Blake Snell (389)
SP: Nathan Eovaldi (361)
SP: Justin Steele (353)
SP: Rich Hill (266)
SP: Erick Fedde (247)

RP: Tanner Scott (238)
RP: Brad Boxberger (229)
RP: Erick Swanson (200)
RP: Ryne Stanek (191)
RP: Michael King (189)

BE: Zach Davies (238)
BE: Chris Flexen (220)
BE: Chad Kuhl (214)
BE: Paul Blackburn (205)
BE: Reynaldo Lopez (189)
BE: Richard Bleier (173)
BE: Sam Moll (147)


Best Player: 2B, Jonathan India.  India is one of the better second basemen in the league and plays for this Guardians team.  While injuries reduced the impact he had in the 2022 season, projections like India to bounce back to his rookie season heights where he had around 550 points and averaged 3.6 points per game.  India is also the team's best asset at just year three in team control.  On the team with the league's worst farm system, India is a supremely valuable cheap, long-term asset.  

Best Asset: SP, Nathan Eovaldi.  As I mentioned, you put India here, but we'll mention Eovaldi, who is on a terrific contract after his three year, $30.6m extension last fall.  Eovaldi has averaged around 13 points per start each of the last three seasons.  He missed some time last year due to injury.  Cleveland needs him to stay healthy over the next three years in order for the big trade they made to prove worthwhile.  

Worst Asset: 1B, Harold Castro.  Don't give ARB B contracts to bench players.  I know it's tempting.  I know it might save $1-2m in a given off-season.  BUT.... you will be locking yourself into a bench player for four years.  How many of those guys last that long?  Not many.  Hopefully he rebounds and is somewhat impactful in 2023.  

Rookie to Watch: C, Chad Wallach.  Just wow.  A guy competing for a backup catcher role in 2023.  This Cleveland farm system is as bad as they come.  But hey, they're winning games.  They can worry about this next year.  This is what you get when you trade all your draft picks for years.  

Outlook: The Guardians won their first AL Central title in league history last year.  They made it to the ALCS for a second straight year, falling to the Seattle Mariners yet again.  They set a Guardians single-season points record with nearly 6,500 points.  They made some big moves to keep the ship afloat and in contention for another.  The only downside of the past 7-8 months?  The Chicago White Sox rose from the ashes are look like the clear favorites in the division now.  Cleveland will have to have everything hit right to keep the pace with them in 2023.  The offense is led by India and a solid trio of outfielders (Marte, Yaz, and Verdugo).  Jeimer was a good get from Philly for third base.  The rotation doesn't have a big time ace, but goes 8 deep behind Snell and Eovaldi.  The bullpen is alright.  Cleveland should be right in the mix in the AL Central if things break right for them.  I wouldn't project them to finish with 6,500 points again or with as many wins, but the Guardians have better than a coin flip odds to return to the post-season.  Do they want a third shot at the Mariners?  Or will someone finally, graciously take them down for them.  This might be the last year of the run for Cleveland... how long can they keep this afloat with no draft picks or farm system?

[Ken Rosenthal]

1. CHICAGO WHITE SOX

GM: Caleb
Fantrax Projection: 7,197 points
Farm Ranking: 23rd
Projected Record: 16-3

Memorable Off-Season Move: Trading for Aaron Nola, Austin Riley, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Tyler Glasnow, Alex Kiriloff, Lance Lynn, Ketel Marte, Joey Votto, and Emmanuel Clase.  
Hitting (projected points by Fantrax): 

C: Travis D'Arnaud (282)
1B: Joey Votto (369)
2B: Jazz Chisholm (491)
SS: Oneil Cruz (525)
3B: Austin Riley (602)
OF: Randy Arozarena (538)
OF: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (370)
OF: Marcell Ozuna (362)
UT: Ketel Marte (452)

BE: Alex Kiriloff (354)
BE: Ji-Man Choi (296)
BE: Jordan Walker (226)
BE: Kyle Farmer (151)
BE: Ryan Jeffers (137)

Pitching (projected points by Fantrax):

SP: Aaron Nola (517)
SP: Shane Bieber (492)
SP: Lance Lynn (381)
SP: Tyler Glasnow (378)
SP: Frankie Montas (336)

RP: Emmanuel Clase (405)
RP: Ryan Pressly (343)
RP: Kenley Jansen (339)
RP: Camilo Doval (328)
RP: Chris Martin (196)

BE: Pat Corbin (323)
BE: Michael Lorenzen (263)
BE: Tyler A. Wells (200)
BE: Sam Hentges (184)


Best Player: 3B, Austin Riley.  The White Sox gave up basically every draft pick they have to get him, but Riley made the move from the National League to the American League and to build this stacked Chicago team.  He's a clear top 25 player, maybe higher than that.  He's been right around 600 points each of the past two seasons and has four years remaining on his deal.  You could argue relative to position Nola could also work here, but we'll go with the position player who plays 5-6 times a week.  

Best Asset: SS, Oneil Cruz.  A lot of good options here.  Jazz.  Randy.  Walker.  Cruz gets the nod here.  He's projected for 4.24 points per game this season entering his second year of team control.  We'll see how he fares over a full season, but the results were promising in his 87 games last year.  Cruz is still just 24 years old and is still coming into his own.

Worst Asset: SP, Frankie Montas.  Montas has been hurt a lot lately.  And... the White Sox just handed him a 5 year, $70m contract.  Could it turn out great?  Sure.  I definitely, most certainly, will not, and actually cannot bet on his success working out for the BKDB White Sox.  A successful contract in my opinion would be he getting at least 15-20 starts each of the next five seasons.  

Rookie to Watch: OF, Jordan Walker.  A top five prospect in baseball, Walker's projection is actually a bit low as it appears he will surprisingly make the opening day roster in Chicago.  He'll likely take at bats from Gurriel Jr. or Ozuna.  Walker has the upside to be a top twenty hitter in baseball.  He has massive power.  There's a chance he plays some at the hot corner too long term, but for now it'll be the outfield for the rookie.  

Outlook: The White Sox were picking at the top of the draft six months ago.  Now, they're projected for 7,000 points and are one of the teams clearly vying for a World Series title in 2023.  It would be the second title for Chicago in five years if they're able to pull it off.  Chicago is led on offense by the aforementioned Riley.  Cruz and Chisholm are a dynamic, young middle infield with star potential.  Votto keeps chugging away at first base.  The rotation is a strong point.  Nola, Lynn, and Bieber is a fantastic top trio.  Glasnow and Montas are a bit of a wildcard pair with their health.  Who knows.  Corbin is one of the worst pitchers in baseball, but hey, at least he gets starts.  The bullpen is very impressive behind their four quality closers.  Chicago's depth is not quite up to par with the other elite contenders, but like they did the last time they won it all, they could have enough to get there behind their star-power.  This will be a really fun team to follow in 2023.  Championship expectations for the White Sox with the bewildering amount of moves they've pulled off this off-season.