2023 NL CENTRAL PREVIEW

[Ken Rosenthal]

5. PITTSBURGH PIRATES

GM: Max
Fantrax Projection: 2,926 points
Farm Ranking: 7th
Projected Record: 3-16

Memorable Off-Season Move: Going on a sign-and-trade rampage during the month of January.
 
Hitting (projected points by Fantrax): 

C: 
1B: Miguel Vargas (357)
2B:
SS:
3B:
OF: Luis Robert (526)
OF: Nick Castellanos (450)
OF: 
UT: Matt Mervis (276)

BE: 
BE:
BE:

Pitching (projected points by Fantrax):

SP: Adam Wainwright (414)
SP: Taijuan Walker (363)
SP: Reid Detmers (293)
SP: 
SP:

RP: Paul Sewald (291)
RP: Mark Melancon (216)
RP: Ranger Suarez (178)
RP: Trevor Richards (162)
RP: 

BE: 
BE:
BE:


Best Player: OF, Luis Robert.  Is Robert the Pirates best player?  Yes.  Is he the most dependable?  Most certainly not.  Robert hasn't topped 100 games in each of the last two seasons despite having an average of 3.8 points per game.  His tantalizing speed and power potential has some thinking he could one day be among the best in the game.  He just needs to stay on the field and make more consistent contact. Robert is still just 25 years old and, should he not get traded, would be a great building block piece in Pittsburgh going forward.  

Best Asset: 3B, Miguel Vargas.  Robert is arguably the best asset also on his golden, 3 year $23.1m contract.  We'll mention Miguel Vargas here instead.  What's so great about a guy who averaged 1.4 points per game in his 18 year debut last year?  Well, he nearly had a 3/4/5 slash line this spring and is projected to averaged 3.7 points per game this season while manning first or third.  He's a consensus top 20 prospects most everywhere, maybe higher.  Those guys have such high value.  

Worst Asset: SP, Taijuan Walker.  Walker's a solid pitcher.  Last year was his 4th career 300+ point season on the mound at a career second best 13 points per start.  But... the Pirates gave him star level money because they had nowhere else to spend it at the end of free agency.  $28.4m is a lot of cash that could've been spread around to a bevy of other players earlier in free agency.  Hindsight is 20/20 though.  Perhaps they'll just eat the cash and ship him out.

Rookie to Watch: 2B, Edouard Julien.  Vargas is the guy.  Matt Mervis was looking like a clear pick for this spot as of a month ago.  But then Julien took over the spring with a dazzling display at the plate.  Julien went 3/4/5 in AA last season and then mashed in the Fall League.  I'm not sure he'll be up in the majors in the first half of the season, but look for him to reach the majors by the end of the summer, giving the Pirates a chance to see what they have in this guy going in 2024.  

Outlook: Well, the playoff run from 2019-2021 was fun... and it's back to the cellar for the Pirates.  They finished a horrible 2-17 last season and appear destined for a similar fate in 2023.  The offense has a few standouts, particularly Robert and Castellanos in the outfield.  Mervis, Vargas, Julien, Gorman, Hummell and others could help fill out the lineup by year's end.  The rotation has a solid 1-2 with Wainwright and Walker.  Detmers is figuring things out and could be a mid-rotation guy for awhile for them.  Most likely, those two two are gone by July.  The bullpen has a few arms also that are likely to be dealt over the course of the year.  The Pirates are in the midst of another rebuild, though it might not be the best time to do so with Milwaukee and Chicago still fumbling below .500.  Hopefully, the Pirates don't end up with more wins than they bargained for in 2023 as they pursue the top pick in next winter's draft.  

[Ken Rosenthal]

4. CHICAGO CUBS

GM: Tanner
Fantrax Projection: 4,587 points
Farm Ranking: 6th
Projected Record: 7-12

Memorable Off-Season Move: Signing Eduardo Rodriguez via free agency.  
 
Hitting (projected points by Fantrax): 

C: Austin Nola (258)
1B: Josh Naylor (376)
2B: Vidal Brujan (258)
SS: Luis Garcia (389)
3B: Jose Ramirez (760)
OF: Kike Hernandez (403)
OF: Bryan De La Cruz (303)
OF: Alek Thomas (259)
UT: Michael Massey (249)

BE: 
BE:
BE:

Pitching (projected points by Fantrax):

SP: Josiah Gray (340)
SP: Jack Flaherty (326)
SP: Eduardo Rodriguez (315)
SP: Cade Cavalli (257)
SP: Braxton Garrett (216)

RP: David Robertson (234)
RP: Seth Lugo (230)
RP: Joe Mantiply (195)
RP: Wandy Peralta (158)
RP: 

BE: 
BE:
BE:


Best Player: 3B, Jose Ramirez.  You could argue Jose Ramirez is the most consistent, impact hitter in baseball.  And he plays for the Cubs... who have won two total games with him on the roster.  GM Tanner has stuck with him though and refused trade offers.  It may just be starting to pay off.  When fully healthy, Ramirez has been 700+ points.  He only had 545 one season due to missing some games.  This guy is a machine still at just age 30.  He may yet play for a winner in Chicago.  The Cubs owe him $38m in each of the next three seasons.  

Best Asset: SP, Josiah Gray.  Chicago has a few players on pre-ARB deals that could work well here.  I'll go with Josiah Gray.  He's entering his third year of team control with four remaining after this.  He had 28 starts last season with over 300 points.  Projections like him to get better in 2023.  Controllable pitching in a rotation is extremely valuable.  A few prospects might quickly surpass Gray in this spot by mid-season, but for now, he's a guy getting innings on a great contract.  

Worst Asset: OF, Yasiel Puig. Need I say much of anything?  This contract has been a disaster.  Chicago can't cut him or they'd owe $4m on that option year next season.  We're stuck with Puig for another year in BKDB.  

Rookie to Watch: SP, Ricky Tiedemann.  Tiedemann exploded out of nowhere last season to ascend into "best pitching prospect in the game" conversation by year's end.  In 78 innings, he struck out 117 batters with just a 2.17 ERA over three levels.  He isn't going to start the season in the Cubs rotation, but he'll be pounding on the door should he pitch well as early as late May I'd pressume.  He could be a future ace.  

Outlook: Chicago has scored just 3,600 points and won four games over the past two seasons.  Should things continue heading as they are, the team should eclipse both the points and wins mark in 2023 alone as they begin the climb back up the ranks in the National League.  The offense is carried by superstar Jose Ramirez.  After him, it's a bunch of mediocre starters trying to prove themselves still at the MLB level.  Maybe a few pop and give them some more juice in the lineup.  Wiemer could be up this summer.  The rotation is okay behind Gray, Flaherty and E-Rod.  It looks like Cavalli is actually going to miss time rather than hit this projection.  That's a big blow.  The Cubs aren't going to be as forgettable this season, but clearly don't have enough yet to even think about a playoff spot.  Their best hope for this season is that the rooks start hitting the majors in droves, creating an army ready to be reckoned with Opening Day 2024.  

[Ken Rosenthal]

3. MILWAUKEE BREWERS

GM: Tim
Fantrax Projection: 5,184 points
Farm Ranking: 8th
Projected Record: 9-10

Memorable Off-Season Move: Signing Yuli Gurriel (thankfully).
 
Hitting (projected points by Fantrax): 

C: Gabriel Moreno (329)
1B: Rhys Hoskins (529)
2B: Ozzie Albies (546)
SS: 
3B: 
OF: Jesse Winker (438)
OF: Michael Conforto (393)
OF: Joey Gallo (372)
UT: Yuli Gurriel (363)

BE: Akil Baddoo (310)
BE: Christopher Morel (258)
BE: Yan Gomes (174)
BE: Tom Murphy (160)

Pitching (projected points by Fantrax):

SP: Brandon Woodruff (475)
SP: Merrill Kelly (448)
SP: Pablo Sandoval (370)
SP: Zach Eflin (286)
SP: Jose Suarez (268)

RP: Ryan Helsley (309)
RP: Matthew boyd (281)
RP: Michael Fulmer (232)
RP: Trevor May (216)
RP: Josh Staumont (151)

BE: Steven Matz (242)
BE:
BE:


Best Player: 2B, Ozzie Albies.  No one was happy to see the beloved Ozzie Albies go down at the beginning of the 2022 season with a year-ending injury.  It broke his streak of two straight 600+ points years.  I'll bet he returns to those numbers in 2023.  Albies is arguably the games' best second baseman.  He combines a rare blend of power and speed, finishing as a 30/20 in 2021, his last full season.  With Hoskins now down for the year, Milwaukee needs him more than ever to be great.

Best Asset: SP, Brandon Woodruff.  Woodruff is right up there with the best arms in the game.  He's averaged 15.5 points per start over the last two seasons, scoring nearly 900 points over that span.  He's just starting year 1 of 4 arbitration years in a Brewers uniform.  This guy would go for a massive return if the Brewers ever traded him.  I bet he sticks around and pitches for the next great Milwaukee team.  

Worst Asset: RP, Drew Rucinski.  $17m.  I get that the Brewers had money to burn at the end of free agency... but there are going to be solid players available that we aren't aware of in-season via free agency.  Milwaukee could have been in the drivers' seat for those guys, but now they have to pray that Rucinski makes 10-15 starts to make this worthwhile.  The news so far?  He'll be on the IL to start the year.  

Rookie to Watch: C, Gabriel Moreno.  Moreno has been balling out this spring and has locked down Milwaukee's starting catching job headed into Opening Day.  He averaged just 1.8 points per game last season in his debut, but has been much better this spring.  The Brewers also have Jackson Chourio, who could be the league's best prospect in a few weeks.  I wouldn't expect him to debut this season, but he shattered all expectations last year.  

Outlook: After winning the division in back to back seasons in 2019 and 2021, the Brewers embarked on a mini re-tool last year, shipping off many of their best players in exchange for a farm system that vaulted towards the top of the league (8th).  This has all the makings of looking like a really, really good team... by 2024.  I think this is another year of wait-and-see for all their newly acquired guys to get up to the majors.  The offense took a huge blow this spring when Rhys Hoskins went down.  Thankfully, they signed Yuli Gurriel this off-season as insurance... so knock just 200 points off their projection instead of 500.  Albies return is big.  The trio of Gallo, Conforto, and Winker have the potential to put up 1,500 in a season.  Will they all get there?  Volatile.  The rotation is fairly deep.  I think it'll be scary next season.  Okay bullpen.  Milwaukee should be competitive in 2023.  I don't think the playoffs are in their cards, but they'll at least make a go at it.  Next year is the time to hop on the train.  

[Ken Rosenthal]

2. CINCINNATI REDS

GM: Josh
Fantrax Projection: 6,007 points
Farm Ranking: 24th
Projected Record: 13-6

Memorable Off-Season Move: Acquiring Luis Castillo, Lance McCuller's Jr, Marcus Stroman, and Trey Mancini.  
 
Hitting (projected points by Fantrax): 

C: Francisco Mejia (160)
1B: Trey Mancini (351)
2B: Jose Altuve (517)
SS: Bobby Witt Jr. (583)
3B: Alec Bohm (420)
OF: Dylan Carlson (442)
OF: Lane Thomas (384)
OF: Jose Siri (317)
UT: Jorge Mateo (337)

BE: Victor Caratini (138)
BE: 
BE:

Pitching (projected points by Fantrax):

SP: Gerrit Cole (528)
SP: Luis Castillo (451)
SP: Robby Ray (447)
SP: Marcus Stroman (353)
SP: Lance McCullers Jr (321)

RP: Craig Kimbrel (258)
RP: A.J. Puk (227)
RP: Brooks Raley (223)
RP: Luis Garcia (215)
RP: Andre Pallente (148)

BE: Edward Cabrera (255)
BE: James Paxton (229)
BE:


Best Player: SP, Gerrit Cole.  I remember years back when we were all confused why the Reds were hanging onto Gerrit Cole through the rebuild.  We've figured out why.  Cole has been nothing short of dominant, arguably the league's best pitcher over the past half-decade.  He's in line for another season averaging 15+ points per start.  He's now surrounded by the best pitchers he's been around while in Cincinnati.  At age 32, he's probably in line for one last big extension after the year is over.  As the Reds only notable key free agent departing, I would bet he gets their extension should they be able to afford him.  

Best Asset: SS, Bobby Witt Jr..  Witt Jr. exploded onto the scene as a rookie last season as a 21 year old, averaging 3.6 points per game and scoring nearly 550 points.  Projections like him to continue along those lines now in his sophomore season.  Cincinnati will have him in town for the next six seasons if they choose to keep him.  These are the kind of players that win championships for teams on their pre-ARB deals.   

Worst Asset: SP, Lance McCullers Jr..  I get it.  At the time, he's a historically 300+ point pitcher who's back from injury.  He had 450 in 2021.  Good stuff.  But... 5 years?  That's a huge risk.  And wouldn't you know it, McCullers is potentially starting the season on the 60 day IL.  This could be terrible if he can't get his healthy more steady.  

Rookie to Watch: SS, Jordan Lawler.  A year after Witt Jr's debut, the Reds may be blessed with another appearance of a top 15 prospect infielder at some point this season.  Lawler is an excellent hitter and running who's growing into more power.  He reached AA by the end of last season.  Once you're at that level, you're one hot streak or injury away from knocking at the door of the majors.  Cincinnati is dreaming of an infield that has Bohm, Altuve, Witt. Jr. and Lawler.  My goodness.  

Outlook:  People forget GM Josh won 14 games three years in a row from 2015-2017 when he joined the league.  Since then, it's been 9 wins, 1 win, 3 wins, 10 wins.  The rebuild appears to be over as Cincinnati is now projected to be a playoff team in 2023.  There's even some buzz that they could catch the Cardinals if St. Louis underperforms a bit out of the gate (especially now with Edwin Diaz out).  The Reds offense is led by veteran star Jose Altuve and rookie sensation Bobby Witt Jr..  Alec Bohm and Trey Mancini are nice power bats at the corners.  The outfield is below average, but should be at least passable.  Catcher is a weak point with Mejia and Caratini both bench-type players at this point.  The rotation is this team's strength.  Can anyone match Cole, Castillo, Ray, Stroman and McCullers as a top 5?  That's over 2,000 projected points.  Edward Cabrera has the upside to become the 4th or 5th guy by season's end.  Cincinnati has big hopes entering 2023.  They're a little low on depth, which might be the thing that holds them back from competing with the best of the best in the NL (San Francisco, Washington, St. Louis).  But after that, they're probably better than the other 11 teams in the National League.  It's been 11 years since the Reds 2012 World Series title... as we know, anything can happen once you make the playoffs.    

[Ken Rosenthal]

1. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

GM: Nik
Fantrax Projection: 6,448 points
Farm Ranking: 27th
Projected Record: 15-4

Memorable Off-Season Move: Trading away starter Luis Castillo to their division rival, the Cinncinati Reds.  

Hitting (projected points by Fantrax): 

C: Carson Kelly (188)
1B: Jared Walsh (325)
2B: Jeff McNeil (435)
SS: Corey Seager (600)
3B: Rafael Devers (621)
OF: Anthony Santander (561)
OF: Giancarlo Stanton (399)
OF: Oscar Colas (399)
UT: Max Kepler (366)

BE: Chris Taylor (372)
BE: Jorge Soler (322)
BE: Dominic Smith (292)
BE: Raimel Tapia (242)
BE: Darrick Hall (218)
BE: Miguel Cabrera (212)
BE: Martin Maldonado (184)
BE: Tucker Barnhart (162)

Pitching (projected points by Fantrax):

SP: Max Fried (471)
SP: Justin Verlander (442)
SP: Logan Gilbert (441)
SP: Kyle Wright (425)
SP: Cole Irvin (401)

RP: Felix Bautista (325)
RP: Kyle Finnegan (264)
RP: John Brebbia (205)
RP: Matt Bush (176)
RP: Dylan Lee (149)

BE: Kyle Gibson (320)
BE: Ryne Nelson (257)
BE:


Best Player: 3B, Rafael Devers.  We're not about to forget that the Cardinals tried to trade him to San Francisco this off-season for a very cheap package.  The league vetoed it, and St. Louis is unfortunately stuck with one of the best third basemen in the game for another season.  Seriously though, this team would be behind Cincinnati without him.  Devers is projected for 4.88 points per game this year, one of the best in the league.  He's averaged around 650 points per the last three seasons and is somehow just 26 years old.  His extension after 2024 is going to be huge, but probably worth it.  

Best Asset: SP, Kyle Wright.  A lot of good options to choose from on this roster.  Gilbert.  Fried.  Santander.  Irvin.  But Kyle Wright... the guy who looked like a bust when he hit the majors... is now projected for 400+ after scoring 485 in his rookie season on 16.2 points per start.  He's got six years of team control left.  St. Louis has hit an absolute home run run with their young pitching.  

Worst Asset: OF, Jorge Soler.  I don't mind Soler as a bench bat, but he's wildly overpaid at $16m per season.  We tend to forget about his 678 point campaign in 2019... that was crazy.  He's scored about that many total points since.  St. Louis could've used that money to deepen their rotation.   

Rookie to Watch: OF, Oscar Colas.  Starter Ryne Nelson also gets some consideration this year.  He should be in the rotation to start the year.  I don't see a lot of upside, but a low-end 3 or more likely a 4 starter is still very valuable.  Oscar Colas, meanwhile, looks like he's taken the third outfield spot out of the gate in the spring.  He's projected for nearly 400 points in his rookie season, with room to grow into more as the years go on.  On a team with the 27th ranked farm system, both of these guys are extremely valuable to the Cardinals.   

Outlook: The Cardinals won their first NL Central title since 2013 last year, winning 17 games and putting up 7,000+ points behind their stellar rotation.  It ultimately ended in a World Series defeat at the hands of the mighty Mariners, but can still be looked at by all accounts as a very successful second season for now third year GM, Nik.  Heading in 2023, the roster has taken a slight step back, but remains among the favorites in the National League.  The offense is led by probably the league's best left side of the infield in Corey Seager and Rafael Devers.  Anthony Santander was a sneaky get in the Verlander trade last summer.  Stanton and Colas both have great upside at different stages in their career for more than 400 points.  The bench is deep.  St. Louis's rotation isn't quite at the heights it was last year, but man is it still good.  Fried, Verlander, Gilbert, Wright, and Irvin is absolutely fantastic.  Gibson is a great sixth option, and Nelson could surprise.  Losing Edwin Diaz was a big hit, one that drops St. Louis down a tier from Washington and San Francisco.  However, the Cardinals are firmly in the mix to win the National League again as they try for a second time at their first championship in league history.