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Post by Ken Rosenthal on Mar 30, 2023 20:28:30 GMT -5
 5. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
GM: Zach
Fantrax Projection: 2,372 points Farm Ranking: 10th Projected Record: 1-18 Memorable Off-Season Move: Trading away Zac Gallen and Kyle Schwarber to Baltimore. Hitting (projected points by Fantrax): C: Tyler Stephenson (408) 1B: 2B: SS: Javier Baez (456) 3B: OF: Chas McCormick (311) OF: Victor Robles (268) OF: UT: Nick Allen (233) BE: BE: BE: Pitching (projected points by Fantrax): SP: Hunter Greene (371) SP: SP: SP: SP: RP: Liam Hendriks (380) RP: A.J. Minter (282) RP: Andrew Bellatti (149) RP: RP: BE: BE: BE: Best Player: SS, Javier Baez. Baez is the lone guy holding the bag after everyone else was traded away. A key stat. This is his tenth season. He's averaged more than 4 points per game once. More than 3 points per game 3 times. He's under 2 every other year. Baez is up and down, but we can say with confidence at this point mostly down. He's probably their best player considering the upside. They should cash out if he starts hot. Best Asset: SP, Hunter Greene. The long-awaited Hunter Greene now sits atop the Phillies rotation, pumping out blazing fastballs with a wicked breaking ball. He's in just year two of team control after his rookie year last year. Greene averaged 11.3 points per start last season and is projected for 371 points, 13.3 points per start this season. I'm sure Philadelphia got plenty of offers for him amidst the fire sale, but he's one to hold on to. Worst Asset: 1B, Greg Bird. I don't mind the contracts on this team. They all serve their purpose. The one that doesn't? Greg Bird. This dude hasn't played since 2019 and somehow got tendered a contract all the way through year 7 of his arbitration. Way to go, Greg. Rookie to Watch: 2B, Connor Norby. Norby flew up prospect rankings last year after he raked his way through the minors. He mashed his way up to AAA by the end of the year and had an OPS over 1.000 in the 9 games he spent there. The infielder is almost certain to debut at some point this season. I don't think he'll be as good as he was in AAA, but he could be an above average, solid hitting second baseman. Outlook: All bets were off last season as the Phillies embarked on a fire sale for the history books. This team is completely unrecognizable from last season. Their starting rotation last year was... Sale, Gallen, Lopez, Heaney, Taillon. Wow. Now, they're projected to be the worst team in baseball in 2023. Was it the right move? Time will tell. The offense is sparse behind Stephenson and Baez. Maybe Victor Robles finally has the breakout we've been waiting for for... six years. After Hunter Greene, there's not much in the rotation. Hendriks and Minter are actually great relievers for the trade market later in the season. They should be worth something. Get ready for a long season in Philly. This team has a shot to go winless. |
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Post by Ken Rosenthal on Mar 30, 2023 20:47:13 GMT -5
 4. NEW YORK METS
GM: James
Fantrax Projection: 3,646 points Farm Ranking: 5th Projected Record: 4-15 Memorable Off-Season Move: Signing outfielder Masataka Yoshida in free agency to a two year, $50m contract. Hitting (projected points by Fantrax): C: Alejandro Kirk (386) 1B: Vinnie Pasquantino (534) 2B: Jean Segura (391) SS: Jeremy Pena (453) 3B: OF: Masataka Yoshida (512) OF: Joc Pederson (355) OF: Kyle Isbel (290) UT: BE: BE: BE: Pitching (projected points by Fantrax): SP: Spencer Strider (422) SP: Nick Martinez (304) SP: Jose Urena (197) SP: SP: RP: Anthony Bass (228) RP: Carl Edwards Jr. (168) RP: Jaime Barria (154) RP: RP: BE: BE: BE: Best Player: OF, Masataka Yoshida. I don't think I'm as sold as projections are on this guy already, but Yoshida is projected for over 500+ points in his first season in baseball. The 29-year old Japanese player has great contact skills, but some believe there's some hidden power ready to be unleashed this season. To get to over 500 points... he'll certainly have to hit his fair share of bombs. Best Asset: SP, Spencer Strider. Vinnie P is great. Kirk is solid. Pena also good, but Strider set the world on fire last season in his rookie debut. He struck out over 200 batters in just 135 innings and averaged 12.1 points per start as a rookie. Projections like him to get better this season, putting him near 425 with 15.1 points per start projection. That's a big step. We'll see if he can make it. Worst Asset: SP, Stephen Strasburg. This dude's been breaking hearts for 36 months now. Over/under on 0.5 innings pitched this year? I'd say 0. $25m for that. Rookie to Watch: SP, Kyle Harrison. Endy Rodriguez could also be up. Also watch up for Brooks Lee. But I've gotta go with Kyle Harrison. The 21 year old lefty was absolutely dominant in the minors last season. 186 K's in 113 innings. Like, what? He had 84 innings in AA last season, which leads me to believe he should be in the majors by July or August sometime. Not enough time to make an enormous impact on the Mets season, but enough to give them a taste of what they'll have next season. Outlook: The sad reality is that the New York Mets have never won the division. Their last playoff appearance was 2012, longest drought in the league. And they don't appear to be a playoff team yet again, heading into year three of the rebuild. There's some positive signs, but let's hope the Mets look significantly improved by years end once their young guys hit the majors than they do now. The offense is carried by Vinnie P, the aforementioned Yoshida, Kirk the beast, Pena, and a couple vets in Joc and Segura. Not a lot of depth behind that. Strider is incredible in the rotation, but it's very, very thin after him. The bullpen isn't much to write home about. The Mets should be better than they were last season... though how much? I don't know. I'd say getting in the 6-8 win range would be a success this season... and competing for a wild card next year would be a wonderful change after these years of losing. |
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Post by Ken Rosenthal on Mar 30, 2023 21:03:36 GMT -5
3. ATLANTA BRAVES
GM: Jared
Fantrax Projection: 4,593 points Farm Ranking: 26th Projected Record: 7-12 Memorable Off-Season Move: Signing starter Zack Wheeler to a 3 year, $93m deal to frontline their rotation. Hitting (projected points by Fantrax): C: Cal Raleigh (336) 1B: Rowdy Tellez (498) 2B: Jon Berti (243) SS: Bryson Stott (372) 3B: Matt Chapman (510) OF: Christian Yelich (492) OF: Cody Bellinger (439) OF: Tommy Pham (224) UT: Brendan Donovan (301) BE: Brandon Belt (299) BE: Didi Gregorius (256) BE: Mitch Garver (181) Pitching (projected points by Fantrax): SP: Zack Wheeler (471) SP: Luis Severino (377) SP: Brad Keller (320) SP: J.P. Sears (241) SP: RP: Kendall Graveman (324) RP: Will Smith (220) RP: Phil Maton (166) RP: RP: BE: BE: BE: Best Player: SP, Zack Wheeler. The Braves made a big splash in free agency, getting Zack Wheeler into their rotation for the next three seasons. He's projected for nearly 500 points. Top 15 among starting pitchers. He's averaged at least 14.9 points per start in each of the last five seasons... one year getting up to 17. Wheeler is as good as they come, and Atlanta really, really needed some pitching. Great move. Best Asset: 1B, Rowdy Tellez. This might be a bit of a surprise, but Tellez is coming onto some radars as a possible breakout candidate in 2023. He had 504 points last season on 3.3 points per game last season... and he's only been around for a few years. Tellez is just in his three of his seven years of team control. Atlanta looks like they have a 500 point hitter under contract for five seasons on an affordable rate. That's a great value... now onto a not so great value... Worst Asset: OF, Christian Yelich. They traded for this contract. That's what amazes me. Yelich is vastly overpaid at nearly $40m per season. The money is covered by Baltimore this year, but there's TWO more years on this contract beyond that. Yelich hasn't been above 3.4 points per game since 2019. I'm not sure he's getting back to those heights, meaning this is terrible value. Rookie to Watch: OF, Colten Cowser. The Atlanta farm system is pretty barren, but Cowser is a major bright spot from it. The solid all-around hitter went through three levels last season, finishing the year in AAA. He will likely debut sometime this season and send Tommy Pham to the bench. I don't think it would take much exceeding of Cowser's likely outcome for him to be their best hitter by the end of next season. Outlook: Hmm... I wonder what's holding this roster back again this year. Oh, it's pitching. Shocker. This might be the most depressing team in the league to cheer for. Never more than 11 wins? Which led to one fluke division title. Zero playoff wins. Mediocrity year after year. I really hope the Braves pull it together and make a run. I really do, but I struggle to see it with this roster. The farm system is bad, and they're projected for seven wins? That was before the Severino injury news came out. Chapman, Yelich, Tellez, Bellinger are the big names on offense. Stott and Donovan have some potential in the infield. Wheeler is incredible. After that, the rotation is a huge question mark. Severino has shown to be unreliable health-wise. Atlanta will win between 6-8 likely again. Maybe next off-season will bring more of a shake up. |
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Post by Ken Rosenthal on Mar 30, 2023 21:22:09 GMT -5
2. MIAMI MARLINS
GM: Travis
Fantrax Projection: 5,711 points Farm Ranking: 25th Projected Record: 11-8 Memorable Off-Season Move: Extending starter Nestor Cortes Jr. to a three year, $27m contract. Hitting (projected points by Fantrax): C: Omar Narvaez (159) 1B: Christian Walker (527) 2B: Isaac Paredes (318) SS: Joey Wendle (350) 3B: Gio Urshela (388) OF: Jake McCarthy (470) OF: Adam Duvall (469) OF: Andrew Benintendi (397) UT: Carlos Santana (418) BE: Eduardo Escobar (320) BE: Nick Senzel (310) BE: Jose Iglesias (308) BE: Harold Ramirez (306) BE: Matt Vierling (298) BE: Garrett Mitchell (276) BE: Manny Pina (132) Pitching (projected points by Fantrax): SP: Nestor Cortes Jr. (402) SP: Nick Lodolo (400) SP: Sonny Gray (346) SP: Trevor Rogers (320) SP: Ross Stripling (267) RP: Gregory Soto (209) RP: Brandon Hughes (205) RP: Seranthony Dominguez (199) RP: Wil Crowe (198) RP: Hoby Milner (164) BE: Spencer Turnbull (256) BE: Ryan Yarbrough (244) BE: Tommy Milone (161) Best Player: 1B, Christian Walker. Walker is one of the more boring "best players" on any team this year, but he's been steady and reliable over the past couple seasons. Multiple 500+ point years. 36 home runs last year. Maybe he's underrated? Maybe not. He is 32 years old despite just starting his first year of arbitration for this team. Semi-bold prediction? Walker never gets a free agency contract behind his arbitration deal. Best Asset: SP, Nick Lodolo. Is there a better asset than a young, talented starting pitcher on a pre-ARB deal in this league? Lodolo was terrific in his rookie season last year. He averaged 12.9 points per start in 19 appearances and appears poised for more this season. Cortes and Lodolo is a great duo, and Miami should have both of them around for each of the next three seasons. Worst Asset: 3B, Eduardo Escobar. $23m for Eduardo Escobar. We just talked about how Zack Wheeler went for $31m to Atlanta. I will say no more. Rookie to Watch: OF, Garrett Mitchell. After a 28 game sample last season, it appears Garrett Mitchell has won a major league outfield job out of spring training. This probably means his projection is closer to 400 than 300 as it stands now. Mitchell is an absolute burner who could steal a lot of bases. All he needs to do is get on base enough for the magic to happen. Outlook: The Marlins have made the NLCS twice in the last four BKDB seasons. Let that sink in. Miami went on an incredible run last season after bursting into the playoffs from the ashes. It was one of the big storylines of the season. This year, Miami has taken a slight step back, but a very weak division means they'll be right in the thick of things once again. The offense is led by Walker, but also has a couple intriguing young names like Jake McCarthy and Garrett Mitchell. Can Carlos Santana really get 418 points? I'm not so sure. The rotation is seven deep and looks really good this season. Miami has a chance at a wild card yet again this season. As they realized last season, all you have to do is get into the playoffs to have a shot. They can certainly get there again. |
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Post by Ken Rosenthal on Mar 30, 2023 22:09:16 GMT -5
1. WASHINGTON NATIONALS
GM: Tim
Fantrax Projection: 7,057 points Farm Ranking: 17th Projected Record: 16-3 Memorable Off-Season Move: Trading for first baseman Freddie Freeman from the Rays. Hitting (projected points by Fantrax): C: Adley Rutschman (446) 1B: Freddie Freeman (677) 2B: Brandon Lowe (512) SS: Amed Rosario (476) 3B: Luis Urias (392) OF: Bryan Reynolds (515) OF: Andrew Vaughn (433) OF: Robbie Grossman (339) UT: Ezequiel Tovar (391) BE: Ha-Seong Kim (387) BE: Joey Meneses (382) BE: Keibert Ruiz (361) BE: Kerry Carpenter (273) BE: Matt Carpenter (256) BE: Nate Eaton (247) BE: Taylor Walls (216) BE: Jace Peterson (206) Pitching (projected points by Fantrax): SP: Max Scherzer (446) SP: Jordan Montgomery (425) SP: Charlie Morton (416) SP: Chris Sale (357) SP: Jordan Lyles (353) RP: Devin Williams (386) RP: Johan Oviedo (221) RP: Colin Poche (214) RP: Zack Jackson (207) RP: Cionel Perez (204) BE: Garrett Whitlock (320) BE: Roansy Contreras (300) BE: Mike Clevinger (298) BE: Graham Ashcraft (244) BE: Matt Moore (175) BE: Paolo Espino (154) Best Player: 1B, Freddie Freeman. The Nationals made a big splash this off-season, bringing in superstar Freddie Freeman from his longtime home in Tampa Bay. Freeman is projected as the 5th best player in all of baseball this season and is exactly the star the title-hungry Nationals need on their roster. 692, 652, 716, 639... that's his last four years. Doesn't get much better than that. At age 33, Washington has to be confident he can continue the success for at least the next 2-3 years. Best Asset: C, Adley Rutschmann. He was the top prospect in baseball for awhile as has proved worth the wait at the majors. A clear leader behind the plate. A terrific hitter. Washington might have the best catcher in baseball on their hands by season end (especially considering his opening day performance today). Adley averaged 3.4 points per game last year in his rookie year. You have to image he'll get even better. Worst Asset: SP/RP, Paolo Espino. I see this as merely a trade-able contract for the Nationals to acquire a big contract player at the deadline. Otherwise, $8m for Espino is just terrible being this team is chasing a title. Rookie to Watch: SS, Ezequiel Tovar. Tovar shot up to the top of prospect boards last season and now has his sights set on the opening day starting lineup for the Washington Nationals. It's been quite the run for the rookie. He's projected for nearly 400 points in his first season and looks like he could eventually replace Amed Rosario as the team's long-term solution at the position. Outlook: Washington is an incredible 33-5 over the past two years, scoring 14,600 points and winning the division both times. They're well on their way to a third straight NL East division title. Albeit, they haven't had much competition. Both of the east divisions are poor, and you could argue the NL East is the worst in the league this year in terms of having a competitive second team challenging the Nationals. Regardless, Washington is one of the best teams in the league and should cruise to a first round bye this year. Freeman is the new star in the lineup. Adley, Vaughn, Tovar are the young studs. Reynolds, Urias, Lowe are the solid contributors. They also have Max Scherzer now headlining the rotation. Montgomery and Morton are great. Sale has upside. They go 9-10 deep in arms, exactly what you need to contend for a title. Washington has everything they need to win a championship. The farm system has fallen off a bit, so the time to go for it is definitely these next couple of seasons. The goal for the year: make it out of the National League. Even if you lose to Seattle (or worse yet, imagine Tim losing to Will), I'd still call that a success. |
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