2023 AL EAST PREVIEW

[Orioles GM (Michael)]

5. NEW YORK YANKEES

GM: Jacob
Fantrax Projection: 2891.5 points
Farm Ranking: 14th
Projected Record: 1-18

Memorable Off-Season Move:
- Acquiring Luis Arraez from Colorado for Royce Lewis, Brice Turang and a 2nd Round Pick.
- Signing Kodai Senga to a 3-year, $84M contract
- Acquiring Edwin Diaz from St. Louis for an 11th Round Pick

Hitting (projected points by Fantrax):

C: Max Stassi (151)
1B: Jesus Aguilar (337)
2B: Luis Arraez (438)
SS:
3B:
OF: Ben Gamel (253)
OF: Jackie Bradley Jr. (217)
OF: Jarren Duran (105)
UT: Michael Perez (15.5)

BE:
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Pitching (projected by Fantrax):

SP: Alek Manoah (484)
SP: Kodai Senga (301)
SP:
SP:
SP:

RP: Aaron Bummer (230)
RP: Adam Ottavino (202)
RP: Nabil Crismatt (161)
RP:
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Best Player: SP, Alek Manoah. Manoah would be an ace on just about every roster in the league. Projected for 484 points, he's far and away the clubhouse leader for the pinstripes. By all accounts, Jacob is committed to keeping Manoah as a cornerstone for the long haul, and he'll give Yankee fans something exciting to watch every fifth day in the meantime while the team rebuilds.

Best Asset: SP, Alek Manoah. Five years of control and a pre-arb year remaining as a starting pitcher make Manoah easily the Yankees' best asset. He could be a good pillar to build around, which is what Jacob has signaled as his intention, but it's easy to imagine Manoah could fetch a nice haul if he were to be made available at some point during the season. With those five years of control, though, Jacob's obviously in position to wait out an offer worth his while.

Worst Asset: SP, Kodai Senga. Senga's both one of New York's best players and also one of its worst assets. It's hard to imagine that Senga will fetch a return that'll make inevitably covering multiple years of salary worthwhile, and if the Yankees were hunting a controllable piece to fetch them 300ish points, surely they could've found it for cheaper.

Rookie to Watch: SP, Forrest Whitley. Whitley's a classic case study for the idea that "there's no such thing as a pitching prospect." A Top 100 prospect every year from 2017 to 2021, he's thrown just 40 innings in the last 3 seasons, all coming across 13 uninspiring appearances in the high minors last year. Now 25, it's truly a make-or-break season for Whitley. With little in the way of other near-bigs pitching in the Yankees' farm system, Whitley becoming even a back-end starter would go a long way towards helping New York slowly climb its way out of the AL East cellar.

Outlook: The situation in New York is certainly workable, but it's also hard to see New York's path to becoming a bonafide contender again any time soon. Jacob's strategy so far has seemingly prioritized individual favorites of the front office over building out a deep roster; Royce Lewis may singlehandedly outscore Luis Arraez this year? If the acquisitions of Arraez, Senga, and Diaz signal a desire to compete in the near future, Jacob will need to get aggressive and strategic in deploying his 70M in cap space and mid-range prospect capital to round out a roster in the offseason. Others have tried simlar moves in recent off-seasons (including these very Yankees last offseason), but the effective versions of those efforts have typically come from teams with deeper farm systems (Chicago White Sox, San Diego Padres, etc.). The alternative is tearing down further, and hoping trade returns for Manoah, Senga, and Arraez can infuse some needed talent into what is currently the 14th-ranked farm system in the league. Decisive action will be the key for the Yankees to get traction, or they could be on a path to sitting in the 16-23 range for a while. 

[Orioles GM (Michael)]

4. BOSTON RED SOX

GM: Chris
Fantrax Projection: 3,548.96
Farm Ranking: 9th
Projected Record: 3-16

Memorable Off-Season Move:
- Signing Shohei Ohtani to a 5-year, $265M contract..

Hitting (projected points by Fantrax):

C: Austin Hedges (137)
1B: Mike Moustakas (231)
2B: Nick Madrigal (106.5)
SS: Carlos Correa (494)
3B: Justin Turner (435)
OF: Tony Kemp (364)
OF: Kole Calhoun (254)
OF:
UT: Shohei Ohtani (600)

BE:
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Pitching (projected by Fantrax):

SP: Michael Kopech (332)
SP: Shohei Ohtani (328)
SP:
SP:
SP:

RP: Enyel De Los Santos (121.6)
RP: Julian Merryweather (93.84)
RP: Derek Law (52.02)
RP:
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Best Player: UT/SP, Shohei Ohtani. Is there a better fantasy player on *any* team than Shohei Ohtani? 932 points speaks for itself.

Best Asset: SS, Carlos Correa. No matter how good Ohtani is, it’s hard to call a $50M+ annual contract player a great asset. Carlos Correa, on the other hand, is good for 500+ points a year and is on a very reasonable 3-year, $12.7M/per deal. Whether he sticks around as a building block or gets flipped for a sizable return, Correa should serve Boston for the long-haul.

Worst Asset: OF, Rafael Ortega. For all the negatives of Boston’s inconsistent free agency activity, one of the positives is that there really aren’t any true bad contracts on the books for the next several years. That said, the team could certainly have allocated $10M in free agency to something better than Rafael Ortega, who currently doesn’t have a clear path to big-league at-bats. Luckily, that $10M will be off the books at season’s end and available to use again in the coming offseason.

Rookie to Watch: SP, Gavin Williams. The Red Sox have a pair of quality options in the rotation, but quite literally nothing else behind that duo. Williams stands to make his debut at some point this year, and has the upside to become another front-line option alongside Shohei Ohtani. If there’s a (real) organization to bet on when it comes to developing pitching talent, Cleveland’s about as safe a bet as it gets.

Outlook: The Shohei Ohtani deal is kind of like giving a franchise quarterback his big payday: It gives you an anchor for the long-term, but also forces you to be much more stingy and effective with the rest of your resources. If Williams and Bobby Miller can become rotation options by season’s end, it’s easy to see a path where a few key offseason moves could put Boston at least on the fringe of Wild Card contention in 2024. Even if that doesn’t happen, a Top-10 farm system and a near-certain high draft position coming for each of the next two drafts make the long-term outlook far more rosy. As long as the Red Sox continue to stay the course and can be more consistent with offseason activity, the team should be in good shape in the coming years.

[Orioles GM (Michael)]

3. TAMPA BAY RAYS

GM: Alex
Fantrax Projection: 3609.4 points
Farm Ranking: 4th
Projected Record: 3-16

Memorable Off-Season Move:
- Trading Freddie Freeman and a 7th Round Pick to the Nationals for Taj Bradley, Brennen Davis, Joey Cantillo, Carlos Rodriguez, a 1st Round Pick, a 2nd Round Pick, and Colin Moran.

Hitting (projected points by Fantrax):

C: Jonah Heim (276)
1B: Seth Brown (486)
2B:
SS: JP Crawford (386)
3B:
OF: Kyle Tucker (673)
OF: Austin Hays (464)
OF: AJ Pollock (329.5)
UT: Esteury Ruiz (334)

BE: Kevin Kiermaier (281.5)
BE: Daniel Vogelbach (182)
BE:

Pitching (projected by Fantrax):

SP: Jacob DeGrom (348)
SP:
SP:
SP:
SP:

RP: Aroldis Chapman (143.44)
RP: Trevor Gott (117.52)
RP: Joel Kuhnel (116.94)
RP: Kevin Ginkel (111)
RP: Victor Arano (99.78)
RP:

BE:
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Best Player: OF, Kyle Tucker. Fantrax's 8th-ranked dynasty player, projected for nearly 700 points. Tucker's got a style of play that'll age well, doesn't create much question about consistency, and produces in every way. The kind of player you can rely on.

Best Asset: OF, Kyle Tucker. A cost-controlled Top 10 dynasty player is always a nice asset to build around. As things stand, the Rays are on a trajectory to to competitive while Tucker still has multiple years on his deal. But even if their farm system fails to deliver necessary reinforcements, Tucker would would serve as a valuable trade chip to help give needed farm talent. That said, it looks likely that he'll be leading the charge on the next Rays playoff club.

Worst Asset: 1B, Colin Moran. Moran was taken as a salary dump move in the Freddie Freeman trade. While his cap hit is palatable, having it sit on the books for the next three years will be a nagging nuisance for a Rays team poised to make a jump over the next few years. There’s always the optin cutting Moran, or perhaps he can reemerge as a worthwhile bench piece at some point. But for now, he’s just cap deadweight.

Rookie to Watch: SP, Taj Bradley. Also acquired in the Freeman deal, Bradley currently stands as the Rays’ most promising pitching prospect with Daniel Espino facing another injury setback. Bradley will start the year at AAA, but could make his debut as soon as late April if he continues the impressive run he made in 2022. Tampa already has a near-complete lineup, so Bradley establishing himself as a long-term solution in the rotation would be a big next step in helping the Rays return to relevance in the American League.

Outlook: The Rays are a year or two away from being firmly in the mix. Hitting on their draft picks and finding a nice trade package for Jacob DeGrom should put them even closer. With so many outfielders in the mix, it'll be interesting to see if the Rays can leverage their outfield prospect depth to add a few more young and controllable arms so they're not stuck filling out a whole rotation in free agency. If they can, the Rays could be challenging for a Wild Card spot as soon as next year. More likely, they'll be firmly in the mix in 2025 once they have time to assemble a full rotation.

[Orioles GM (Michael)]

2. TORONTO BLUE JAYS

GM: Stephen
Fantrax Projection: 6700.67
Farm Ranking: 11th
Projected Record: 14-5

Memorable Off-Season Move:
-

Hitting (projected points by Fantrax):

C: Sean Murphy (412)
1B: Wilmer Flores (362)
2B: Jorge Polanco (432)
SS: Thairo Estrada (437)
3B: Jose Miranda (452)
OF: Kris Bryant (487)
OF: Steven Kwan (497)
OF: Ian Happ (487)
UT: Oscar Gonzalez (438)

BE: Josh Jung (403.5)
BE: Anthony Rendon (398)
BE: Kyle Stowers (380)

Pitching (projected by Fantrax):

SP: Yu Darvish (449)
SP: Cal Quantrill (420)
SP: Pablo Lopez (416)
SP: Nick Pivetta (401)
SP: Mitch Keller (364)
SP: Jose Urquidy (358)
SP: Clayton Kershaw (311)
SP: Chris Archer (202)

RP: John Schreiber (256)
RP: Touki Toussaint (186)
RP: Emilio Pagan (183)
RP: Matt Brash (182)
RP: Jose Ruiz (169.26)
RP: Jake Diekman (171.84)

BE: Joe Jimenez (169)
BE: Caleb Smith (145.12)
BE: Tim Hill (136)


Best Player: SP, Yu Darvish. Every contender needs a Top 20 SP frontlining its rotation, and Darvish doing so will be all the more critical after Toronto sent Dylan Cease to Detroit.

Best Asset: 3B, Jose Miranda. Quality third basemen are hard to find in this league, as the Blue Jays know after struggling through injury frustrations with Anthony Rendon and Josh Jung over the last few seasons. But it looks like Toronto has its long-term answer at the hot corner in Miranda, who still has 6 years of control including two pre-arbitration seasons left.

Worst Asset: 3B, Anthony Rendon. The Rendon deal made total sense when Toronto signed him - he was coming off multiple years of garnering MVP votes at a position

Rookie to Watch: OF, Kyle Stowers. Stowers absolutely demolished AAA pitching last year, and posted a respectable .724 OPS in his first big-league cup of coffee at the end of the 2022 season. He’ll have his work cut out for him trying to break into a crowded and talented Toronto outfield, but if Stowers can bring even 70-80% of his 2022 AAA production into his first full big-league campaign, he could still challenge for playing time and become a mainstay for the long haul.

Outlook: The Blue Jays have one of the best outlooks in the American League. With only one true challenger in the division at the moment, Toronto has six layup wins on the schedule just in the AL East, along with a Top-6 projected roster and a farm system that still boasts the likes of Curtis Mead, Jackson Merrill, Kevin Alcantara, Gordon Gracceffo, and others. The vast majority of the roster is still under control for several years, and the club also has over $100M in cap space going into next offseason. The Blue Jays are going to be a force to be reckoned with for quite some time.

[Orioles GM (Michael)]

1. BALTIMORE ORIOLES

GM: Michael
Fantrax Projection: 7228.5
Farm Ranking: 1st
Projected Record: 16-3

Memorable Off-Season Move:
- Trading Ryan Pepiot, Ceddanne Rafaela, Liam Hendricks, Cristian Hernandez, Yiddi Cappe, Royber Salinas, 1st Round Pick, and 4th Round Pick for Zac Gallen and Kyle Schwarber

Hitting (projected points by Fantrax):

C: MJ Melendez (471)
1B: CJ Cron (513)
2B: Max Muncy (474)
SS: CJ Abrams (456.5)
3B: Eugenio Suarez (504)
OF: Julio Rodriguez (619)
OF: Kyle Schwarber (607)
OF: Tyler O’Neill (470)
UT: Jurickson Profar (469)

BE: Trayce Thompson (380)
BE: Mike Zunino (301)
BE: Corey Dickerson (248.5)

Pitching (projected by Fantrax):

SP: Logan Webb (473)
SP: Zac Gallen (469)
SP: Tony Gonsolin (399)
SP: Drew Rasmussen (383)
SP: George Kirby (365)
SP: Johnny Cueto (319)
SP: MacKenzie Gore (245)
SP: Brayan Bello (243)

RP: Raisel Iglesias (352)
RP: Evan Phillips (262)
RP: Caleb Theilbar (203)
RP: Penn Murfee (164)
RP: Hunter Harvey (136.04)
RP: Jovani Moran (111.5)


BE: Drey Jameson (211.42)
BE: Kyle Nelson (65.56)
BE: Scott Alexander (63)


Best Player: OF, Julio Rodriguez. Acquired several years ago as an under-the-radar prospect, Rodriguez has emerged as the Orioles’ premier star and one of the most talented players in the league. Projected for over 600 points this year, Julio will be the anchor of a talented Orioles lineup.

Best Asset: OF, Julio Rodriguez. Even amidst an aggressive push in the 2019-2020 offseason, Baltimore firmly had Rodriguez on their untouchable list. He’s rewarded them for that decision, winning the 2022 AL Rookie of the Year and ranking second on the Fantrax Dynasty 500 list. With 6 years of control remaining, Rodriguez should be the face of the Orioles for the foreseeable future.

Worst Asset: RP, Rowan Wick. Facing a very thin bullpen entering the offseason, Baltimore rewarded Wick with a four-year Type B contract to ensure one spot was secured. Now with a full bullpen and Wick finding himself in AAA, the Orioles are likely lamenting the $3M+ on their books for each of the next four years. Wick could still reemerge as a bullpen depth piece, but he’s nothing but cap deadweight at this point.

Rookie to Watch: SS, Anthony Volpe. Volpe had a terrific Spring Training and claimed the starting shortstop job for the Yankees out of camp. With at least 20 homers and 30 stolen bases in each of his two full minor league seasons, Volpe could develop into an elite fantasy option in short order.

Outlook: The Orioles got aggressive entering the 2020 season, only to see it get canceled for a global pandemic. The Bad Luck Brian meme incarnate. 2021 proceeded to be a year where presumed franchise cornerstones Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger both proceeded to see their fall off a cliff, leading to a revamp and Round 2 rebuild of the Baltimore roster.

The Orioles have once again made moves to reenter the fray in the American League, but have done so with far more tact this time around. After bottoming out the farm system before 2020, Baltimore has managed to build a 7000+ point-projected roster while still maintaining the league’s top-ranked farm system entering the 2023 season. Like the Blue Jays, the Orioles benefit from having six near-certain victories awaiting for them in the American League East, setting up what should be an easy path to at least a wild card spot. While the AL East will be perhaps the most boring division in the league, Toronto and Baltimore’s battle for a division title should be one of the more fun stories to watch in 2023.