Post by Ken Rosenthal on May 30, 2023 22:09:48 GMT -5
It's been almost a year and a half since my last update. Ranking teams by their pressure to win in the 2023 season.
Factors are:
1. Amount of seasons since last playoff appearance
2. Amount of time current GM has been in place
3. Current direction of the roster/previous season's results.
4. Lack of historic playoff success.
4. Any past championships
Ranking in brackets is the ranking from the 2022 update. Enjoy!
1. Atlanta Braves - Jared is one of five GM's still hear from the inaugural season. And we're still at just one playoff appearance after another mediocre eight win season in 2022. This year, they've started... 3-5... right on track. Still no big rebuild on the horizon. I think Jared is more likely to try to add just to get this seven year streak over with. He's won 37.4% of his games since 2011.
2(3). New York Mets - No playoffs since 2012, still the longest streak in league. If they don't make it this year, it'll be ten seasons in a row. James already has his team at 3 wins this year, one below last year's total. Hopefully, they'll end the streak by next year, baring an incredible run this season. James carries a 23.7% through his first two seasons.
3(4). Oakland Athletics - After a 4-15 2022 season, the Athletics now have eight losing seasons and just three winning seasons in 11 years. They're just 1-7 and on track to be one of the worst team's in the league again. Jonny's one season 21.1% win percentage is almost certain to go down after this year.
4(5). Los Angeles Dodgers - For all their patience through four straight rebuilding seasons, the Dodgers have still not made the playoffs since 2014. Barack Obama was still halfway through his second term at that time. L.A. is a top ten team this year and looks like they're set to finally end the streak despite their pitching injuries. They need to get in. GM Scott has won just 33% of his games so far since 2016.
5(7). Baltimore Orioles - Another of the original five remaining who hasn't had much success. The Orioles have gone five seasons in a row without making the post-season and have sky high expectations with their young, talented roster this season. The pressure is on as they've been a slightly disappointing 5-3 to start the year and are on the outside looking in of the AL playoff picture. Mike is at 47.8% all-time.
6(9). Kansas City Royals - The third of the original five remaining... the Royals made the playoffs last year, but everyone knew they were overmatched when the post-season began. Now? They're right back at 26th in the league in scoring with a 2-6 record. The see-saw continues. Kansas City would like to see the Royals be a real contender for once. 12 wins is their all time best. Is this just where GM Bill is content? History says so. Bill is at 50.7% all-time. Average.
7(10). Pittsburgh Pirates - That surprising, memorable 2019 NLCS run is fading from memory as the Pirates are mired in yet another rebuilding season. GM Max has been at the helm since 2013 and has won just 33% of his games since joining. They're on track for their fifth season of 5 wins or less in that span this year.
8(12). New York Yankees - The Yankees tried to push their chips in for the 2022 season in a non-competitive AL East. It backfired. The Yankees won just six games, have an 0-8 roster so far in 2023, and just the 14th ranked farm system. They're going to need to improve this roster at the trade deadline and in the off-season in a major way. Jacob has won just 18.4% of his games so far... and that number will be lower after this season.
9(14). Tampa Bay Rays - Tampa really needs to emerge from this rebuild soon. They've won 34.2% of Alex's games as GM and have had three straight seasons with 6 wins or fewer. Tampa has had a nice start to the year at 5-3, but averaging just 160 points per game as of late won't sustain that success. A lucky 8-9 win season doesn't mean the rebuild is over.
10(18). Minnesota Twins - Historically, the Twins aren't that bad, but the lack of moves thus far in GM Matt's tenure has the fan base antsy. Minnesota's farm is 20th in the farm rankings. Thankfully (kind of?), they're 0-8 this season and should get some great talent at the top of the draft to boost them in the right direction. A few savvy trades to stock the farm could get them trending in the right direction. Until a direction is seen... the pressure is there... even in Matt is just in his second year. 42.1% win percentage for him thus far.
11(22). Texas Rangers - Lots of past success fading in the rearview mirror. Texas was looking like a team on the rise after an 8 win season in 2022, but now is 3-5 and selling off pieces again. Hopefully, this will be a short retool rather than a rebuild. Ahmed has won just 21.1% of his games through his first two seasons.
12(20). Cincinnati Reds - Similar to Texas with previous prowess in their history, the Reds haven't had a 11+ win season since 2017. Josh has won 48.9% of his career games, but just 23 over the past four years. The Reds are in a battle for an NL Wildcard spot this season. If they don't make the playoffs, it'll be five straight years with no post-season.
13(2). Arizona D'backs - Maybe this big drop isn't quite justified, but the D'backs did put up a 13-6 record last season and score nearly 6,000 points. Historically in Arizona though? Zero playoff wins. Just two playoff appearances. Kyle is at 45.6% for a win percentage during his nine seasons (in the midst of his tenth) in BKDB. Getting back to back playoff appearances would push them further down in the next update, but they're on the outside looking in right now.
14(23). San Diego Padres - Denver had a solid 13-6 season in 2022, making the playoffs and winning a playoff game... but they're 2-6 so far this season and looking like they might head towards another retool... or dare I say... rebuild. This is Denver's fifth season and he's won just 36.8% of his games. The Padres have two World Series titles, but that was a long time ago.
15(19). Houston Astros - How has this team not won a playoff game? It's playoff failure alone that has them this high. Every other measure has Will's tenure as one of the best in league history. In his seven seasons, the Astros have a 77.4% win percentage. In the playoffs? 0.0%. So far Houston appears to be taking a step back this year at 5-3. Is this the end of the run?
16(13). San Francisco Giants - This team needs to win a World Series. Simple as that. The Giants have been a juggernaut for five straight seasons, six including this year. Das has won 69.9% of his games, holds the league's points record and only perfect season. The roster isn't getting younger. Time for San Francisco to finish it.
17(11). Washington Nationals - Although they have a bevy of draft picks and good farm system for a contender, the pressure is on when you rank yourself #1 in your own power rankings for a third of the season. The Nationals, despite being one of the favorites entering 2022, were ousted in the first round of the post-season. They need to go deeper in the playoffs this year. They'll be the slight favorites over the Giants in the National League and have started 8-0. Tim has won 47.4% of his career games.
18(24). Chicago Cubs - Chicago is starting to rise up these rankings a second straight two win season. The Cubs are an incredible 8-0 in 2023 after this magical start to the season, but will need to make moves to sustain it with them being just 16th in points. Although it seems unlikely, missing the playoffs would be a bummer. Tanner has won just 44.7% historically.
19(17). Detroit Tigers - The Tigers best season ever? 6,094 points. That's good... but not great. This team has really never put it all together and missed the playoffs last season. Fans are restless. They're enjoying a 6-2 start to the season, but Detroit will move up these rankings considerably if they don't punch their ticket to the post-season this fall and make an impact. Jon has won 56.1% of his career games.
20(16). Toronto Blue Jays - 58 wins over four seasons. A 76.3% all-time record for Stephen. A wildly soft division. What's not to like? 1-4 in the playoffs in the last four years. I don't feel like this team has been in the "We're the best and coming for the title" seat yet... so they're a few notches lower than a couple other teams in similar boats.
21. Philadelphia Phillies - Philadelphia is finally in a full on rebuild after the run ended midway through last season. At 120-83 with a World Series title, this is a good team historically... but Zach has been just slightly better than average 57.1% career-wise. That number is sure to dip, perhaps below .500 as the Phillies appear poised to lose for a couple seasons.
22(26). Los Angeles Angels - That 2014 title was another long forgotten title. The pressure is mostly external than internal, as the Angels have been content to wait on the farm system and field a semi-full lineup for the last couple years. They still haven't ever missed the playoffs, but if they do this year, you'd have to hope for some change at the MLB level. GM Derrick has won an incredible 73.9% of his games, one of the five starting members of the league still here.
23(25). Milwaukee Brewers - The Brewers went into retool mode last trade deadline, and that probably saved them from being higher on these rankings. They've had just three losing seasons in team history (soon to be four), and Tim has an impressive 66.9% win rate over seven seasons. They've still never won it all though.
24(6). Cleveland Guardians - After being a laughing-stock franchise for nearly a decade, GM Thomas has brought the Guardians to the ALCS in back to back seasons, winning 27 games in those two years. The fanbase is overjoyed to be good and just happy to be where they're at. Thomas is at 43% during his six seasons.
25(8). St. Louis Cardinals - Like the Guardians, the Cardinals are still in feel-good mode, making the playoffs in back-to-back seasons for the first time in a long time and losing in the World Series last year. At 78.9%, you could say GM Nik is one of the best to ever do it. We'll have to let that play out over more than two seasons though. So far in 2023, a 6-2 record has the Cardinals on the right track. The expectations will come with time...
26(28). Colorado Rockies - Colorado begins the trek back up these rankings after missing the playoffs for the first time since 2016 last year. Rather than push chips in again, they appear content to retool in 2023 and sit at 4-4. There's a little more patience with a couple titles from the past, but we all know this team wants to win all the time. The pressure will be on if they're not back in contention by next year. Alex is the final inaugural member of the league still here. He's at 68.5% all-time.
27(29). Boston Red Sox - Boston's roster at the MLB level has been just awful the last couple years. They've won 5 total games and are 1-7 to start the 2023 season. Sean has just a 13.2% he's won in his first two seasons in Boston. They're going to absolutely fly up these rankings if things don't look markedly better by this time next year.
28(27). Chicago White Sox - The White Sox have a title in the past five years. Check. They don't have a discouraging streak of playoff losses to deal with (because they missed the playoffs). Check. They're really good this year and looking like they're back in the hunt. Check. I don't see how fans could be frustrated with this team yet, especially if they do some damage this fall. Although... GM Caleb is at just 40% for his win percentage through five seasons.
29(15). Miami Marlins - How are the Marlins 29th? That makes no sense. Well, they made a surprise run to the NLCS no one saw coming last season and beat some great contenders. A run like that has everyone feeling good, even if Miami looks pretty mediocre this season. The stay at the bottom will likely be very short-lived if they can't improve things this off-season. GM Travis is at 62.4% after his seven seasons.
30. Seattle Mariners - Back to back championships. The Mariners have their feet up and are enjoying another stellar season with this beast of a roster. Phil's all-time percentage? Just 46.5%. He'll get it up eventually.
KR
Factors are:
1. Amount of seasons since last playoff appearance
2. Amount of time current GM has been in place
3. Current direction of the roster/previous season's results.
4. Lack of historic playoff success.
4. Any past championships
Ranking in brackets is the ranking from the 2022 update. Enjoy!
1. Atlanta Braves - Jared is one of five GM's still hear from the inaugural season. And we're still at just one playoff appearance after another mediocre eight win season in 2022. This year, they've started... 3-5... right on track. Still no big rebuild on the horizon. I think Jared is more likely to try to add just to get this seven year streak over with. He's won 37.4% of his games since 2011.
2(3). New York Mets - No playoffs since 2012, still the longest streak in league. If they don't make it this year, it'll be ten seasons in a row. James already has his team at 3 wins this year, one below last year's total. Hopefully, they'll end the streak by next year, baring an incredible run this season. James carries a 23.7% through his first two seasons.
3(4). Oakland Athletics - After a 4-15 2022 season, the Athletics now have eight losing seasons and just three winning seasons in 11 years. They're just 1-7 and on track to be one of the worst team's in the league again. Jonny's one season 21.1% win percentage is almost certain to go down after this year.
4(5). Los Angeles Dodgers - For all their patience through four straight rebuilding seasons, the Dodgers have still not made the playoffs since 2014. Barack Obama was still halfway through his second term at that time. L.A. is a top ten team this year and looks like they're set to finally end the streak despite their pitching injuries. They need to get in. GM Scott has won just 33% of his games so far since 2016.
5(7). Baltimore Orioles - Another of the original five remaining who hasn't had much success. The Orioles have gone five seasons in a row without making the post-season and have sky high expectations with their young, talented roster this season. The pressure is on as they've been a slightly disappointing 5-3 to start the year and are on the outside looking in of the AL playoff picture. Mike is at 47.8% all-time.
6(9). Kansas City Royals - The third of the original five remaining... the Royals made the playoffs last year, but everyone knew they were overmatched when the post-season began. Now? They're right back at 26th in the league in scoring with a 2-6 record. The see-saw continues. Kansas City would like to see the Royals be a real contender for once. 12 wins is their all time best. Is this just where GM Bill is content? History says so. Bill is at 50.7% all-time. Average.
7(10). Pittsburgh Pirates - That surprising, memorable 2019 NLCS run is fading from memory as the Pirates are mired in yet another rebuilding season. GM Max has been at the helm since 2013 and has won just 33% of his games since joining. They're on track for their fifth season of 5 wins or less in that span this year.
8(12). New York Yankees - The Yankees tried to push their chips in for the 2022 season in a non-competitive AL East. It backfired. The Yankees won just six games, have an 0-8 roster so far in 2023, and just the 14th ranked farm system. They're going to need to improve this roster at the trade deadline and in the off-season in a major way. Jacob has won just 18.4% of his games so far... and that number will be lower after this season.
9(14). Tampa Bay Rays - Tampa really needs to emerge from this rebuild soon. They've won 34.2% of Alex's games as GM and have had three straight seasons with 6 wins or fewer. Tampa has had a nice start to the year at 5-3, but averaging just 160 points per game as of late won't sustain that success. A lucky 8-9 win season doesn't mean the rebuild is over.
10(18). Minnesota Twins - Historically, the Twins aren't that bad, but the lack of moves thus far in GM Matt's tenure has the fan base antsy. Minnesota's farm is 20th in the farm rankings. Thankfully (kind of?), they're 0-8 this season and should get some great talent at the top of the draft to boost them in the right direction. A few savvy trades to stock the farm could get them trending in the right direction. Until a direction is seen... the pressure is there... even in Matt is just in his second year. 42.1% win percentage for him thus far.
11(22). Texas Rangers - Lots of past success fading in the rearview mirror. Texas was looking like a team on the rise after an 8 win season in 2022, but now is 3-5 and selling off pieces again. Hopefully, this will be a short retool rather than a rebuild. Ahmed has won just 21.1% of his games through his first two seasons.
12(20). Cincinnati Reds - Similar to Texas with previous prowess in their history, the Reds haven't had a 11+ win season since 2017. Josh has won 48.9% of his career games, but just 23 over the past four years. The Reds are in a battle for an NL Wildcard spot this season. If they don't make the playoffs, it'll be five straight years with no post-season.
13(2). Arizona D'backs - Maybe this big drop isn't quite justified, but the D'backs did put up a 13-6 record last season and score nearly 6,000 points. Historically in Arizona though? Zero playoff wins. Just two playoff appearances. Kyle is at 45.6% for a win percentage during his nine seasons (in the midst of his tenth) in BKDB. Getting back to back playoff appearances would push them further down in the next update, but they're on the outside looking in right now.
14(23). San Diego Padres - Denver had a solid 13-6 season in 2022, making the playoffs and winning a playoff game... but they're 2-6 so far this season and looking like they might head towards another retool... or dare I say... rebuild. This is Denver's fifth season and he's won just 36.8% of his games. The Padres have two World Series titles, but that was a long time ago.
15(19). Houston Astros - How has this team not won a playoff game? It's playoff failure alone that has them this high. Every other measure has Will's tenure as one of the best in league history. In his seven seasons, the Astros have a 77.4% win percentage. In the playoffs? 0.0%. So far Houston appears to be taking a step back this year at 5-3. Is this the end of the run?
16(13). San Francisco Giants - This team needs to win a World Series. Simple as that. The Giants have been a juggernaut for five straight seasons, six including this year. Das has won 69.9% of his games, holds the league's points record and only perfect season. The roster isn't getting younger. Time for San Francisco to finish it.
17(11). Washington Nationals - Although they have a bevy of draft picks and good farm system for a contender, the pressure is on when you rank yourself #1 in your own power rankings for a third of the season. The Nationals, despite being one of the favorites entering 2022, were ousted in the first round of the post-season. They need to go deeper in the playoffs this year. They'll be the slight favorites over the Giants in the National League and have started 8-0. Tim has won 47.4% of his career games.
18(24). Chicago Cubs - Chicago is starting to rise up these rankings a second straight two win season. The Cubs are an incredible 8-0 in 2023 after this magical start to the season, but will need to make moves to sustain it with them being just 16th in points. Although it seems unlikely, missing the playoffs would be a bummer. Tanner has won just 44.7% historically.
19(17). Detroit Tigers - The Tigers best season ever? 6,094 points. That's good... but not great. This team has really never put it all together and missed the playoffs last season. Fans are restless. They're enjoying a 6-2 start to the season, but Detroit will move up these rankings considerably if they don't punch their ticket to the post-season this fall and make an impact. Jon has won 56.1% of his career games.
20(16). Toronto Blue Jays - 58 wins over four seasons. A 76.3% all-time record for Stephen. A wildly soft division. What's not to like? 1-4 in the playoffs in the last four years. I don't feel like this team has been in the "We're the best and coming for the title" seat yet... so they're a few notches lower than a couple other teams in similar boats.
21. Philadelphia Phillies - Philadelphia is finally in a full on rebuild after the run ended midway through last season. At 120-83 with a World Series title, this is a good team historically... but Zach has been just slightly better than average 57.1% career-wise. That number is sure to dip, perhaps below .500 as the Phillies appear poised to lose for a couple seasons.
22(26). Los Angeles Angels - That 2014 title was another long forgotten title. The pressure is mostly external than internal, as the Angels have been content to wait on the farm system and field a semi-full lineup for the last couple years. They still haven't ever missed the playoffs, but if they do this year, you'd have to hope for some change at the MLB level. GM Derrick has won an incredible 73.9% of his games, one of the five starting members of the league still here.
23(25). Milwaukee Brewers - The Brewers went into retool mode last trade deadline, and that probably saved them from being higher on these rankings. They've had just three losing seasons in team history (soon to be four), and Tim has an impressive 66.9% win rate over seven seasons. They've still never won it all though.
24(6). Cleveland Guardians - After being a laughing-stock franchise for nearly a decade, GM Thomas has brought the Guardians to the ALCS in back to back seasons, winning 27 games in those two years. The fanbase is overjoyed to be good and just happy to be where they're at. Thomas is at 43% during his six seasons.
25(8). St. Louis Cardinals - Like the Guardians, the Cardinals are still in feel-good mode, making the playoffs in back-to-back seasons for the first time in a long time and losing in the World Series last year. At 78.9%, you could say GM Nik is one of the best to ever do it. We'll have to let that play out over more than two seasons though. So far in 2023, a 6-2 record has the Cardinals on the right track. The expectations will come with time...
26(28). Colorado Rockies - Colorado begins the trek back up these rankings after missing the playoffs for the first time since 2016 last year. Rather than push chips in again, they appear content to retool in 2023 and sit at 4-4. There's a little more patience with a couple titles from the past, but we all know this team wants to win all the time. The pressure will be on if they're not back in contention by next year. Alex is the final inaugural member of the league still here. He's at 68.5% all-time.
27(29). Boston Red Sox - Boston's roster at the MLB level has been just awful the last couple years. They've won 5 total games and are 1-7 to start the 2023 season. Sean has just a 13.2% he's won in his first two seasons in Boston. They're going to absolutely fly up these rankings if things don't look markedly better by this time next year.
28(27). Chicago White Sox - The White Sox have a title in the past five years. Check. They don't have a discouraging streak of playoff losses to deal with (because they missed the playoffs). Check. They're really good this year and looking like they're back in the hunt. Check. I don't see how fans could be frustrated with this team yet, especially if they do some damage this fall. Although... GM Caleb is at just 40% for his win percentage through five seasons.
29(15). Miami Marlins - How are the Marlins 29th? That makes no sense. Well, they made a surprise run to the NLCS no one saw coming last season and beat some great contenders. A run like that has everyone feeling good, even if Miami looks pretty mediocre this season. The stay at the bottom will likely be very short-lived if they can't improve things this off-season. GM Travis is at 62.4% after his seven seasons.
30. Seattle Mariners - Back to back championships. The Mariners have their feet up and are enjoying another stellar season with this beast of a roster. Phil's all-time percentage? Just 46.5%. He'll get it up eventually.
KR