2023 Playoff Preview & Cy Young/MVP Update
Aug 20, 2023 21:05:31 GMT -5
Brewers GM (Tim), White Sox GM (Caleb), and 1 more like this
Post by Ken Rosenthal on Aug 20, 2023 21:05:31 GMT -5
--NEW YORK, N.Y.-- The playoffs are here.
Cy Young Race/MVP Race
MVP:
1. UT/SP, Shohei Ohtani (816 pts) - Boston Red Sox
2. OF, Ronald Acuna Jr. (740 pts) - Los Angeles Angels
3. 1B, Freddie Freeman (625 pts) - Washington Nationals
4. 1B, Matt Olson (612 pts) - Seattle Mariners
5. OF, Mookie Betts (611 pts) - San Francisco Giants
Cy Young:
1. SP, Gerrit Cole (420 pts) - Cincinnati Reds
2. SP, Spencer Strider (420 pts) - New York Mets
3. SP, Zac Gallen (419 pts) - Baltimore Orioles
4. SP, Logan Webb (406 pts) - Baltimore Orioles
5. SP, Pablo Lopez (394 pts) - Toronto Blue Jays
Playoff Power Rankings
Tier 1: Favorites
1. Seattle Mariners 19-0
Never have we seen a team be this dominant for this long. The Mariners became the 2nd or 3rd team to finish the season undefeated, a crazy feat. What better way to cap it off than with a third straight championship? MVP candidate Matt Olson leads the way on offense for this club. They're going to miss Wander Franco, but Bichette, Lowe, Greene, Tatis and others lead one of the league's second best lineup. The pitching behind ace Corbin Burnes finished third best in BKDB. Seattle is the favorite until someone beats them.
2. Washington Nationals 19-0
Apparently it is possible to overlook an undefeated team that broke the points record. With Seattle's extended dominance at the forefront, don't miss the Nationals putting up the highest scoring season in league history, clearing the 8,000 point mark. Freddie Freeman anchors a deep lineup that finished tops in baseball. Justin Turner's acquisition in the middle of the year didn't turn many heads, but he's the Nationals second best hitter right now. The pitching is also the best in baseball from a points standpoint... with Max Scherzer at the helm. Here's your National League favorite folks.
Tier 2: Contenders
3. Chicago White Sox 16-3
The White Sox know how to do one thing very well... go #ALLIN. They boast the league's fifth best offense and fourth best group of pitchers. It's Adolis Garcia and Austin Riley putting on a power show in the lineup. Aaron Nola has been his usual dominant self, while Camilo Doval is arguably the league's best reliever. Depth has been the question mark on this team all year... you don't need it in the playoffs though if you can just stay healthy for three weeks (with a bye). Chicago has a great shot at title number two.
4. Baltimore Orioles 15-4
For not wanting to "push all the chips in"... the Orioles ended up finishing with the league's fourth best offense and fifth best pitching stats. Baltimore surged forward to capture the AL East crown for the first time in TWELVE YEARS with a huge win against Toronto in the last week of the season. The O's lineup is led by ROOKIE Corbin Carroll and last year's rookie sensation Julio Rodriguez. Oh. There's also Elly Da La Cruz averaging nearly 4 points per game. Zac Gallen and Logan Webb are both Cy Young candidates in the rotation. Momentum is clearly on the Orioles side right now. Can they ride it to a World Series crown?
5. Toronto Blue Jays 15-4
Toronto has been a contender for all of the 2023 season, though perhaps never thought of as THE team to win it all. They're a bit under the radar, but definitely have a shot. Pitching is the name of the game of the Jays, featuring the league's second best rotation/bullpen. Pablo Lopez has entered the Cy Young conversation with his stellar play as of late. The offense is seventh, will it be good enough to compete with the teams above them? Steven Kwan has been their top performer this year, which isn't really a fear-striking lead hitter. The group just needs to get hot for a couple weeks though... even making the World Series for the first time in league history through a difficult American League would be a huge accomplishment.
6. San Francisco Giants 14-5
What a weird season for the Giants. They've been a step behind what we've grown accustomed too this season, but turned it on down the stretch while making many huge acquisitions to put themselves in a spot to make another attempt to win a World Series title. Outside of Washington and Seattle, no one scored more points from their hitters this season. Mookie Betts, Juan Soto, Aaron Judge. Nice. The pitching has been rebuilt on the fly and finished eighth in the league this year, though it's probably better than it's been all season. Blake Snell and Zach Eflin, both deadline acquisitions will try to carry this rotation. Can the Giants finally get it done after so many years of incredible rosters? It'd be fitting that it finally happened the season we least expected it.
Tier 3: Playoff Teams
7(9). Chicago Cubs 15-4
There's really not much for a statistical argument for why the Cubs should be a considered a contender in this playoff bracket. They finished TWELFTH in hitting points this season. They also finished TWELFTH in pitching points this season. BUT.... they have a first round bye. And for that reason, they are at the top of this Tier 3 part of the rankings. The Cubs only need to get hot for three weeks to win a World Series. Much crazier things have happened. Never thought we'd actually see Jose Ramirez play for a Cubs 15-4 team, but here we are. Do you really want to play a team in the NLDS led by a guy who can punch like that?
8. Los Angeles Dodgers 14-5
The Dodgers have the league's sixth best offense Paul Goldschmidt and... Lars Nootbar? The pitching was a problem all season as they finished thirteenth in points in that sphere. The deadline moves to shore up the rotation just might give this team a chance though. Kevin Gausman has been so dominant all season long. A two start week from him and we might see this team in the NLDS with a chance to go further. A team I can only characterize as a fringe contender, though with at least the possibility of making a run.
9(7). Arizona Diamondbacks 14-5
For the plethora of moves and shake-ups that Arizona brought to the headlines throughout the year, they finished tenth in scoring and tenth in pitching. So they're pretty good at both things, but not elite. I think that will still give them a chance to make a playoff run. The offense behind Semien and Bregman looks solid... I'm just not sure I trust their pitching with Sonny Gray as the top option and a lot of shaky stuff below that. Put the D'backs in the same category as the Dodgers though. There's a chance.
10. St. Louis Cardinals 13-6
The Cardinals... I have no idea what to do with this team. The eighth best offense and sixth best rotation despite some of the sell off moves they made this year. Pretty impressive job by management. Here's the deal. C.J. Abrams is their top hitter. It's just hard to get on board with that man leading a team's offense to a World Series title. I do like Gilbert, Bassit, Verlander, Fried in the rotation. The Cardinals have been great at pitching in past years. This team made the World Series last year, but I just wouldn't bet on it for 2023.
11. Detroit Tigers 14-5
This team has the fifteenth best lineup and fourteenth best pitching staff and won FOURTEEN games. Nice work. Detroit sure squeezed everything they could out of this roster for 2023... I'm not sure there's much juice remaining for the post-season. Also not sure if I like that analogy. Trea Turner could always bounce back amidst his down year. The rotation is decent. I think we're looking at a first round exit or one first round surprise at the absolute best.
12. Cleveland Guardians 13-6
It's a kind of sad end (unless they somehow reshape the roster yet again this off-season) to a really fun post-season run for the Guardians. They have the ninth best offense and seventh best pitching, but just haven't been playing well late in the season. It'd be a huge surprise to see Cleveland pull off a first round upset against Baltimore. Jeimer Candelario is their current best active hitter. Justin Steele their current best active pitcher. I know they've both had good years, but... it's a no for me.
2023 Playoff Bracket
National League:
1. Washington Nationals (19-0) (BYE)
2. Chicago Cubs (15-4) (BYE)
3. San Francisco Giants (14-5)
4. Los Angeles Dodgers (14-5)
4. Arizona D'backs (14-5)
6. St. Louis Cardinals (13-6)
American League:
1. Seattle Mariners (19-0) (BYE)
2. Chicago White Sox (16-3) (BYE)
3. Baltimore Orioles (15-4)
4. Toronto Blue Jays (15-4)
5. Detroit Tigers (14-5)
6. Cleveland Guardians (13-6)
Ken Rosenthal's Official Bracket
Wild Card:
SFG over STL, LAD over ARI, BAL over CLE, TOR over DET
Divisional Series:
SFG over CHC, WAS over LAD, BAL over CHW, SEA over TOR
Championship Series:
WAS over SFG, BAL over SEA
World Series:
BAL over WAS
KR
Cy Young Race/MVP Race
MVP:
1. UT/SP, Shohei Ohtani (816 pts) - Boston Red Sox
2. OF, Ronald Acuna Jr. (740 pts) - Los Angeles Angels
3. 1B, Freddie Freeman (625 pts) - Washington Nationals
4. 1B, Matt Olson (612 pts) - Seattle Mariners
5. OF, Mookie Betts (611 pts) - San Francisco Giants
Cy Young:
1. SP, Gerrit Cole (420 pts) - Cincinnati Reds
2. SP, Spencer Strider (420 pts) - New York Mets
3. SP, Zac Gallen (419 pts) - Baltimore Orioles
4. SP, Logan Webb (406 pts) - Baltimore Orioles
5. SP, Pablo Lopez (394 pts) - Toronto Blue Jays
Playoff Power Rankings
Tier 1: Favorites
1. Seattle Mariners 19-0
Never have we seen a team be this dominant for this long. The Mariners became the 2nd or 3rd team to finish the season undefeated, a crazy feat. What better way to cap it off than with a third straight championship? MVP candidate Matt Olson leads the way on offense for this club. They're going to miss Wander Franco, but Bichette, Lowe, Greene, Tatis and others lead one of the league's second best lineup. The pitching behind ace Corbin Burnes finished third best in BKDB. Seattle is the favorite until someone beats them.
2. Washington Nationals 19-0
Apparently it is possible to overlook an undefeated team that broke the points record. With Seattle's extended dominance at the forefront, don't miss the Nationals putting up the highest scoring season in league history, clearing the 8,000 point mark. Freddie Freeman anchors a deep lineup that finished tops in baseball. Justin Turner's acquisition in the middle of the year didn't turn many heads, but he's the Nationals second best hitter right now. The pitching is also the best in baseball from a points standpoint... with Max Scherzer at the helm. Here's your National League favorite folks.
Tier 2: Contenders
3. Chicago White Sox 16-3
The White Sox know how to do one thing very well... go #ALLIN. They boast the league's fifth best offense and fourth best group of pitchers. It's Adolis Garcia and Austin Riley putting on a power show in the lineup. Aaron Nola has been his usual dominant self, while Camilo Doval is arguably the league's best reliever. Depth has been the question mark on this team all year... you don't need it in the playoffs though if you can just stay healthy for three weeks (with a bye). Chicago has a great shot at title number two.
4. Baltimore Orioles 15-4
For not wanting to "push all the chips in"... the Orioles ended up finishing with the league's fourth best offense and fifth best pitching stats. Baltimore surged forward to capture the AL East crown for the first time in TWELVE YEARS with a huge win against Toronto in the last week of the season. The O's lineup is led by ROOKIE Corbin Carroll and last year's rookie sensation Julio Rodriguez. Oh. There's also Elly Da La Cruz averaging nearly 4 points per game. Zac Gallen and Logan Webb are both Cy Young candidates in the rotation. Momentum is clearly on the Orioles side right now. Can they ride it to a World Series crown?
5. Toronto Blue Jays 15-4
Toronto has been a contender for all of the 2023 season, though perhaps never thought of as THE team to win it all. They're a bit under the radar, but definitely have a shot. Pitching is the name of the game of the Jays, featuring the league's second best rotation/bullpen. Pablo Lopez has entered the Cy Young conversation with his stellar play as of late. The offense is seventh, will it be good enough to compete with the teams above them? Steven Kwan has been their top performer this year, which isn't really a fear-striking lead hitter. The group just needs to get hot for a couple weeks though... even making the World Series for the first time in league history through a difficult American League would be a huge accomplishment.
6. San Francisco Giants 14-5
What a weird season for the Giants. They've been a step behind what we've grown accustomed too this season, but turned it on down the stretch while making many huge acquisitions to put themselves in a spot to make another attempt to win a World Series title. Outside of Washington and Seattle, no one scored more points from their hitters this season. Mookie Betts, Juan Soto, Aaron Judge. Nice. The pitching has been rebuilt on the fly and finished eighth in the league this year, though it's probably better than it's been all season. Blake Snell and Zach Eflin, both deadline acquisitions will try to carry this rotation. Can the Giants finally get it done after so many years of incredible rosters? It'd be fitting that it finally happened the season we least expected it.
Tier 3: Playoff Teams
7(9). Chicago Cubs 15-4
There's really not much for a statistical argument for why the Cubs should be a considered a contender in this playoff bracket. They finished TWELFTH in hitting points this season. They also finished TWELFTH in pitching points this season. BUT.... they have a first round bye. And for that reason, they are at the top of this Tier 3 part of the rankings. The Cubs only need to get hot for three weeks to win a World Series. Much crazier things have happened. Never thought we'd actually see Jose Ramirez play for a Cubs 15-4 team, but here we are. Do you really want to play a team in the NLDS led by a guy who can punch like that?
8. Los Angeles Dodgers 14-5
The Dodgers have the league's sixth best offense Paul Goldschmidt and... Lars Nootbar? The pitching was a problem all season as they finished thirteenth in points in that sphere. The deadline moves to shore up the rotation just might give this team a chance though. Kevin Gausman has been so dominant all season long. A two start week from him and we might see this team in the NLDS with a chance to go further. A team I can only characterize as a fringe contender, though with at least the possibility of making a run.
9(7). Arizona Diamondbacks 14-5
For the plethora of moves and shake-ups that Arizona brought to the headlines throughout the year, they finished tenth in scoring and tenth in pitching. So they're pretty good at both things, but not elite. I think that will still give them a chance to make a playoff run. The offense behind Semien and Bregman looks solid... I'm just not sure I trust their pitching with Sonny Gray as the top option and a lot of shaky stuff below that. Put the D'backs in the same category as the Dodgers though. There's a chance.
10. St. Louis Cardinals 13-6
The Cardinals... I have no idea what to do with this team. The eighth best offense and sixth best rotation despite some of the sell off moves they made this year. Pretty impressive job by management. Here's the deal. C.J. Abrams is their top hitter. It's just hard to get on board with that man leading a team's offense to a World Series title. I do like Gilbert, Bassit, Verlander, Fried in the rotation. The Cardinals have been great at pitching in past years. This team made the World Series last year, but I just wouldn't bet on it for 2023.
11. Detroit Tigers 14-5
This team has the fifteenth best lineup and fourteenth best pitching staff and won FOURTEEN games. Nice work. Detroit sure squeezed everything they could out of this roster for 2023... I'm not sure there's much juice remaining for the post-season. Also not sure if I like that analogy. Trea Turner could always bounce back amidst his down year. The rotation is decent. I think we're looking at a first round exit or one first round surprise at the absolute best.
12. Cleveland Guardians 13-6
It's a kind of sad end (unless they somehow reshape the roster yet again this off-season) to a really fun post-season run for the Guardians. They have the ninth best offense and seventh best pitching, but just haven't been playing well late in the season. It'd be a huge surprise to see Cleveland pull off a first round upset against Baltimore. Jeimer Candelario is their current best active hitter. Justin Steele their current best active pitcher. I know they've both had good years, but... it's a no for me.
2023 Playoff Bracket
National League:
1. Washington Nationals (19-0) (BYE)
2. Chicago Cubs (15-4) (BYE)
3. San Francisco Giants (14-5)
4. Los Angeles Dodgers (14-5)
4. Arizona D'backs (14-5)
6. St. Louis Cardinals (13-6)
American League:
1. Seattle Mariners (19-0) (BYE)
2. Chicago White Sox (16-3) (BYE)
3. Baltimore Orioles (15-4)
4. Toronto Blue Jays (15-4)
5. Detroit Tigers (14-5)
6. Cleveland Guardians (13-6)
Ken Rosenthal's Official Bracket
Wild Card:
SFG over STL, LAD over ARI, BAL over CLE, TOR over DET
Divisional Series:
SFG over CHC, WAS over LAD, BAL over CHW, SEA over TOR
Championship Series:
WAS over SFG, BAL over SEA
World Series:
BAL over WAS
KR