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Post by D'backs GM (Kyle) on Aug 28, 2023 11:24:25 GMT -5
Same breakdown as last week. These numbers are from the last 4 weeks of the regular season. Can't factor in last week's scores since there were teams on a bye week. Arizona scored their season high last week. Toronto scored lower than the lowest score they had from the previous 4 weeks. Baltimore and St. Louis outscored their 4 week average. AL | Team | #1 SEA | #4 TOR | | Average | 406.51 | 378.91 | | High | 449.74 | 402.48 | | Low | 363.54 | 362.54 | | H2H Wins | 3 | 1 | | Projected Starts | 12 | 13 |
| Team | #2 CHW | #3 BAL | | Average | 364.46 | 389.03 | | High | 442.38 | 448.32 | | Low | 316.18 | 319.86 | | H2H Wins | 1 | 3 | | Projected Starts | 11 | 9 |
NL | Team | #1 WAS | #5 ARI | | Average | 434.10 | 363.55 | | High | 462.34 | 387.18 | | Low | 414.52 | 337.44 | | H2H Wins | 4 | 0 | | Projected Starts | 14 | 12 |
| Team | #2 CHC | #6 STL | | Average | 299.29 | 341.82 | | High | 344.98 | 465.82 | | Low | 257.32 | 265.54 | | H2H Wins | 2 | 2 | | Projected Starts | 12 | 7 |
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Post by Brewers GM (Tim) on Aug 28, 2023 21:25:43 GMT -5
Here are some quick and dirty win-probabilities using the same data. This is mostly here to antagonize Tim C. into some sort of reverse-reverse-reverse-reverse jinx.
Mariners over Blue Jays: 76%
Orioles over White Sox: 62%
Nationals over Diamondbacks: 99%
Cardinals over Cubs: 67%
Reiterating - don’t take or lay odds based on these. Case in point: this method suggests that the Diamondbacks’ scoring almost 500 points last week would be a one-in-500,000,000 event! Is this method that far off? Can the Diamondbacks do it again? What is real?!?
Good luck everyone
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