|
|
Post by astrosgm on Jul 17, 2011 22:11:52 GMT -5
Hey guys, just to spark a little interest, am going to be doing a daily type of thing where I am going to repost interesting stories I find around the Internet Regarding MLB and MILB. Doing this just to spark some interest and discussion! Haha. So in honor of this, here is the first one - Courtesy of crawfishboxes.com www.crawfishboxes.com/2011/7/15/2277486/trade-scenarios-michael-bourn-to-the-san-francisco-giantsTrade Scenarios: Michael Bourn To The San Francisco Giants We've got the first requested trade scenario, this one coming from our own Sean Feist (aka native_astro). The reason I chose this one out of his (many) suggestions was that it gave us a chance to look both at a player and team we hadn't reviewed before. By going over Bourn's value with the Atlanta Braves, we'd be rehashing a system we've already discussed, so this provides a few new pieces we didn't have. Thinking about Bourn, his value below turns out to be almost as high as Pence and should fetch just as high a price on the trade market. Of course, as I also discuss below, the Astros will probably not get full value for him. The Giants have been one of the more active members in trade rumors, as they look for ways to upgrade their offense again this season. I'm sure Scott Boras would also like this move, as it'd get his client on a team that will get more exposure in the playoffs, so there are plenty of reasons this makes sense. It's also likely that Bourn will be in play this trading deadline, though it's an open question if Wade will pull the trigger on him. With that said, onto the analysis... Let's use the Trade Value Calculator to see what Bourn's value might be. As a refresher, the TVC takes Bourn's projected fWAR totals over the two seasons he's under team control. Since his salary can't be known yet for 2012, we assume that his salary will be 80 percent of his total value. By looking at that fWAR projection and multiplying that by the cost of a win on the free agent market, we get his value based on performance. Subtract his current and future salaries from that, and you'll get his surplus value, which is what we use to calculate these trade scenarios. Based on Bourn's stats through half this season, I've got him down for 5.5 fWAR, then 4.5 for 2012. Add to that a projected Type B free agency at the end of those two years, and Bourn's surplus value is at $27.2 million. That's a pretty good chunk of change, and is probably more than many of you expected of him. But, it also reflects the value of his skills in the field and on the base paths, which some contender would love to add. A quick refresher on the value of prospects shows us that a Top 50 pitcher is worth 15.9 million, a Top 75 hitting prospect is worth 14.2 million, a Top 100 hitting prospect is worth 12.5 million, a Top 100 pitcher is worth 9.8 million, a Grade B hitter is worth 5.5 million, a Grade B pitcher is worth 7.3 million, a Grade C+ pitcher 23 or older is worth 1.5 million and a Grade C hitter under 22 is worth 0.7 million. So, the Astros might almost expect to get back a Top 50 pitcher and a Top 100 hitter for Bourn. The problem with that is most teams won't value Bourn as highly as he's worth. It seems like we're a broken record on this point, but Bourn is more valuable to the Astros than he is to another team on the trading market. It's that simple. So, to trade him, the Astros may have to get less than his actual value, which is something they may not decide to do. But, since we have a framework for Bourn's value, let's look at some prospects from San Francisco's system. 1) Zach Wheeler, RHP - The prize of this list, Wheeler was the sixth overall pick in the 2009 draft. He had a slow start to his pro career, but things are starting to pick up for him. He's pitching at San Jose in the brutal Cal League, but has been really good, striking out 88 in 76 2/3 innings with a 3.76 ERA. If there's a knock against him, it's that his walk rate is really, really high and will probably get hit harder once he's moving on to harder leagues. Still, Wheeler is a Top 75 pitching prospect and should be the jewel of any trade. 2) Francisco Peguero, OF - An adequate Bourn replacement, Peguero has many of the same qualities. He's a plus runner, has a very strong throwing arm in the outfield and uses his speed to hit for a pretty good average. If there's a knock against him, it's that his swing doesn't lend itself to power very well. He also doesn't walk as much as you'd like, but that can develop in time. He also needs some refinement with his baserunning, but the talent was there enough to earn a B- grade from John Sickels. 3) Gary Brown, OF - The second first-round pick to show up on this list, Brown is very similar to Peguero and may be more similar to Michael Bourn. He's got a pure 80 speed on the scouting scale and, as Sickels said in his book, "terrorizes pitchers with (his speed) on the base paths." The big concern about him coming out of college was his walk rate, which was nonexistent and didn't show up in a brief pro debut. It'd be harder to trade him (read: he'd need to be a PTBNL) since he was just drafted last June, but Brown might be worth it. If his walk rate stick around 7-8 percent in the pros, he'll be the perfect leadoff hitter. Sickels has him as a Grade B player, but that should shoot up quickly, since Brown was recently ranked No. 33 on BA's Midseason Top 50 prospect list. 4) Eric Surkamp, LHP - Another guy who has really raised his stock this season, Surkamp is a lefty with a killer strikeout rate. He has passed the Double-A test with flying colors, posting a 1.78 ERA with 118 strikeouts in 96 1/3 innings. He's older (23) and doesn't have an overwhelming fastball, but what he's doing in Double-A with less velocity makes me think he might have a higher ceiling than Dallas Keuchel. Would be a great addition to the system, even though he's just a C+ prospect by Sickels' ratings. 5) Chris Dominguez, 3B - You could easily put Conor Gillaspie here (even though he's made the majors this season), because the Giants have some depth at third base and the Astros do not. Dominguez is the less-developed prospect, though he's also an older prospect at 24. He recently got the bump up to Double-A and is hitting well there. He's showing some power and a pretty good contact rate, though he could walk more. Dominguez is the intriguing throw-in to a deal like this and may profile similarly to Chris Johnson. Sickels has him as a Grade C guy. 6) Hector Sanchez, C - The first player on here that wasn't listed on BA's Top 30 prospects this season, Sanchez has some things that could be very appealing for Houston. For one, he's a great defensive catcher who's hitting pretty well at Triple-A right now. He's also fairly young at 21, especially for his level, though he may have just been called up since Buster Posey went down. But, that also means the Giants may not need a bang-up catching prospect and put him in play in a deal. Sickels grades him out as a C prospect and thinks his future is as a reserve catcher. For me, that's why he's intriguing, because he could be the next Humberto Quintero for Houston, once Q proves too injury prone or expensive to stick on the team. Where does that leave us? Time to make some deals... Trade One: Houston trades Michael Bourn to the Giants for Zach Wheeler, Francisco Peguero and Hector Sanchez - In this trade, Houston gets a big, big pitching prospect from a team that is much like Atlanta in having good, young rotational depth. They'd be taking a risk on Wheeler's control, but in getting Peguero too as a potential Bourn replacement, the Astros would have two future big leaguers. The value of this deal ($20 million) is less than Bourn's probably worth, but as we mentioned earlier, Houston's unlikely to get full value for their speedy center fielder. Trade Two: Houston trades Michael Bourn to the Giants for Gary Brown, Eric Surkamp and Chris Dominguez - Much like the trade above, this one focuses on one big prospect and a couple more intriguing guys. Brown is the big get, providing a future Bourn replacement and a prospect to rival George Springer as the top prospect in the system. Surkamp is a pretty advanced pitching prospect on a team that, as we mentioned, has good rotational depth already. He would also give Houston another advanced guy to pair with all the Corpus Christi players. Dominguez would be a throw-in, but he's got the same potential that Chris Johnson has showed and is younger. Depending on how you value Brown, this deal comes pretty close to getting full value for Bourn. Trade Three: Houston trades Michael Bourn to the Giants for Wheeler, Brown and Surkamp - This is the most unlikely trade, and also the most valuable one. First off, the Giants would almost certainly not trade their last two first-round picks in one deal. Secondly, that's a whole lot of value for a player who won't be perceived as being worth that. Thirdly, the Giants are going to have to face the reality that their window is smaller with the current lineup and they'll need to pair players like Brown with Posey and Sandoval to compete in the future. Still, this would be a big-time win for Houston. We could also talk about throwing in guys like Sergio Romo or Madison Bumgarner into deals, but I feel a team trying to get back to the World Series would be less likely to hurt its major league roster for a player like Bourn. What do you think? Which deals work best for both sides? Are there any players I missed who would fit into a trade with San Fran? What do you guys think of this? Chime in with your thoughts! |
|
|
|
Post by astrosgm on Jul 17, 2011 22:29:48 GMT -5
www.crawfishboxes.com/2011/7/14/2274950/trade-scenarios-jeff-keppinger-to-the-cleveland-indiansTrade Scenarios: Jeff Keppinger to the Cleveland Indians This is the first of two pieces on various trade scenarios this week. Today, we're looking at sending one Jeff Keppinger to the Cleveland Indians, thus fixing their lineup troubles. There are problems with this scenario, just like the last two, but before I lay those out, I'll say that Friday, we're going to have another one of these. It's going to be a suggestion from another writer on the site, native_astro, and I wanted to reiterate that I'm open to suggestions. Like many of you suggested, I'll try and update the Braves scenario with just Bourn, but in the meantime, if you have any ideas, feel free to email them to thecrawfishboxes@gmail.com On to the Cleveland Indians...In case you only paid attention to the Futures Game for Jose Altuve, the U.S. Team's second baseman Jason Kipnis hit a home run and generally looked great. He's also hitting .297/.380/.506 for the Cleveland Indians Triple-A affiliate. The natural question to ask is why would Cleveland trade for Keppinger to man second base if they could just bring up Kipnis? That's the main problem with this scenario, but doesn't entirely rule it out. After all, the Indians need some offensive help, and Kepp could play the role of super sub pretty well. After the jump, we'll break down what he might be worth and what the Astros could get for him... Let's use the Trade Value Calculator to see what Kepp's value might be. As a refresher, the TVC takes Kepp's projected fWAR totals over the two seasons he's under team control. Since his salary can't be known yet for 2012, we assume that his salary will be 80 percent of his total value. By looking at that fWAR projection and multiplying that by the cost of a win on the free agent market, we get his value based on performance. Subtract his current and future salaries from that, and you'll get his surplus value, which is what we use to calculate these trade scenarios. Based on Kepp's stats through half this season, I've got him down for 1.5 fWAR, then 1.5 for 2012. Add to that a projected Type A free agency at the end of those two years, and Kepp's surplus value is at $11.1 million. That's a pretty good chunk of change, and is probably more than many of you expected of him. So, let's lower that total to a cool 10 million just for public perception purposes. A quick refresher on the value of prospects shows us that a Top 50 pitcher is worth 15.9 million, a Top 100 pitcher is worth 9.8 million, a Grade B pitcher is worth 7.3 million, a Grade C+ pitcher 23 or older is worth 1.5 million and a Grade C hitter under 22 is worth 0.7 million. So, the Astros might expect to get back a Grade B pitcher or hitter and another prospect for Kepp. No one major, but it should be a nice deal for a player who could help Houston down the road. In that respect, a deal for Kepp will probably look more like the Casey Blake deal from a few years ago (Blake to the Dodgers for Jon Meloan and Carlos Santana...before he was Carlos Santana) than the Pudge Rodriguez deal (where Houston got two prospects who didn't amount to much but were fairly well regarded at the time). Keep that in mind as we look at the following players. 1) Nick Weglarz, OF/1B - Though not listed on a Top 100 list, Weglarz is the highest ranking player on Baseball America's Top 30 prospects on here. He's graded out as a B on John Sickels' rankings, but that may drop after he's had a disastrous year backsliding into Double-A. Weglarz is almost a mirror image of Brett Wallace. The only thing the two have in common is suspect defense. Otherwise, Weglarz is all power, no average, while Wallace is all average, no power. Picking up Weglarz would be redundant, but this team does need power. 2) Jason Knapp, RHP - I have no thoughts that Houston would ask for Knapp or that he's in play in any trade scenario. See, he recently had another shoulder surgery and has been ruled out for the rest of the season. The only reason I include him here is I think Houston would be interested in him if he weren't hurt. Knapp has an intriguing, power skillset and is still young, but injuries have been a problem. Oh, did I mention he was also drafted by the Phillies, coming to Cleveland in the Cliff Lee deal? That's why Houston might look at him. 3) Joe Gardner, RHP - Look closely, because Gardner is the only other Type B player on this list. He's a little bit unique, in that Gardner doesn't have flashy strikeout numbers. Instead, he relies on a heavy sinker coming from a three-quarters delivery. That combination has made him effective, but some struggles with his control this season at Double-A might limit his value. He also may be projected as a big league closer instead of sticking as a starter. 4) Josh Judy, RHP - One of two players on this list to actually show time in the major leagues this season, Judy is a reliever. You know how much Ed Wade loves those guys. Judy actually profiles similarly to Mark Melancon as far as stuff goes. Both live in the low 90's with some sink, but have the makeup to be pretty good relievers. He wouldn't be a centerpiece, but Judy is intriguing enough to get in a Kepp trade. 5) Cord Phelps, 2B - The other big leaguer, Phelps may have been passed on the depth chart by Kipnis. His brief time in the bigs this season showed he can get on base at a good clip, but he's not hitting worth a damn. In the minors, Phelps showed off power and a good eye, which is a great combination. Honestly, Houston couldn't do worse than him as a second base option until Jose Altuve is ready to go. Since we have a way to value players, that gives us Weglarz worth 5.5 million, Knapp worth 2.1 million, Gardner worth 7.3 million, Judy worth 1.5 million and Phelps worth $700,000. Now, we start slapping together some trade scenarios. Scenario One: Astros trade Keppinger to Cleveland for Nick Weglarz, Josh Judy and Cord Phelps - Because Weglarz value is only about half of what Kepp's figures to be, we added in two more prospects to pad out the numbers. This still doesn't get Houston to 10 million in value, but it comes close. Plus, I really like both Phelps and Judy, but there's not nearly enough value there to justify sending Kepp for just the two. Scenario Two: Astros trade Keppinger to Cleveland for Cord Phelps and Joe Gardner - Again, with this deal, Houston gets a MLB-ready second baseman to fill in for Kepp while also getting a good pitching prospect who's already fairly developed. Gardner would fit into the wave of players currently at Corpus and his floor is pretty high. Houston wouldn't get the value for Kepp in this deal, but they'd probably be happy with the return. Scenario Three: Astros trade Keppinger to Cleveland for Joe Gardner and Josh Judy - Ditto what I said about Gardner above, just with Judy added in here. This is the deal for Ed Wade, since it gives him two potential relievers. We all know how much Ed Wade likes his relievers. None of these deals are terribly great, but I think I like the addition of some of the lower floor guys. Frankly, I don't like Weglarz as a centerpiece, because (as I said) he's redundant with Wallace. Gardner makes some sense, and if Houston could somehow get Gardner, Phelps and Judy, that'd be a pretty nice deal. I just doubt they'll get three prospects in return for Keppinger, however much my calculator says his value really is. What do you think? Which deal would you make? Are there any Cleveland prospects I missed that you'd include? Do you think the Indians need Kepp in the first place?
|
|
|
|
Post by astrosgm on Jul 17, 2011 22:30:45 GMT -5
www.crawfishboxes.com/2011/7/6/2262575/astros-trade-scenarios-hunter-pence-to-the-bravesAstros Trade Scenarios: Hunter Pence To The Braves Another week, another trade scenario to kick around for the Houston Astros. This time, we're trying to spin Hunter Pence off to the Atlanta Braves. There have been no definitive rumors linking the two teams, but there is ample evidence that a match can be found. First of all, MLB Trade Rumors does not list the Braves as one of the teams looking for an upgrade in right field, but they do list them under the center field-needy teams. In fact, the entire Braves outfield could use an upgrade as Hunter Pence would be a substantial move up from all of Martin Prado,Jordan Schaefer, Nate McLouth and even Jason Heyward. The Braves would probably not move Heyward off of right field even if they acquired Pence, so he'd have to play center or left, with Schaefer moving to center. I'm not sure that's much of an upgrade, but Pence has played center before and wouldn't have quite as difficult an area to cover as he did in MMP. This trade scenario ultimately will come down to two things: can the Braves justify adding an impact bat to possibly get to the World Series and can the Astros part with untouchable Pence? This is about as improbable a scenario as you'll find, but for the sake of this article, we'll break down whether the Braves need Pence and if any of those trades make sense... Again, let's use the Trade Value Calculator to see what Pence's value might be. As a refresher, the TVC takes Pence's projected fWAR totals over the three seasons he's under team control. Since his salary can't be known yet for 2012 and 2013, we assume that his salary will be 60 percent and 80 percent of his total value. By looking at that fWAR projection and multiplying that by the cost of a win on the free agent market, we get his value based on performance. Subtract his current and future salaries from that, and you'll get his surplus value, which is what we use to calculate these trade scenarios. Based on Pence's stats through half this season, I've got him down for 5.0 fWAR (even if that may be a little high), then 4.0 for 2012 and 3.5 for 2013. Add to that a projected Type B free agency at the end of those three years, and Pence's surplus value is at $28.9 million. Now, for the prospects. Let's rule out a couple prospects right away. Houston will not be picking up Julio Teheran, Brandon Beachy, Freddie Freeman or Craig Kimbrel in any trade with Atlanta. That's four of the Braves top 10 prospects, courtesy of Baseball America. So, first off, we're dealing from a position of weakness with the Braves system. From rags to riches, we move from the Detroit farm system to the Braves, who ranked second in BA's preseason organizational rankings. Even excluding those four players above, there are some intriguing prospects listed below. Here's my short list of the top guys the Astros might target. 1) Mike Minor, LHP - A Top 50 pitching prospect, Minor was a favorite to win a spot in this Braves rotation, but was beaten out in spring training by Beachy (who has posted a 3.32 ERA this season). Minor hasn't done poorly in the meantime, with solid strikeout numbers, a sterling ERA and good control. Plus, he's generating plenty of ground balls, which is always a plus. At this point, he'd be ready to step in immediately to Houston's rotation beside Jordan Lyles. 2) Randall Delgado, RHP - Another Top 50 pitching prospect, Delgado is on the same level as Minor on most lists. Some favor the lefty and some favor the slightly less developed Delgado. At the same time, Delgado has been just as good this season, striking out 82 in 90 innings over 16 starts. He's also younger than Minor (21 to 23) and would also fit into a rotation with Lyles, though probably not as quickly as Minor. 3) Arodys Vizcaino, RHP - Third player, third pitcher. That's where Atlanta is really deep, which complements Houston's system nicely, since the Astros lack pitching depth but are pretty deep in position players. Acquired in the Javier Vazquez trade, Vizcaino was promoted to Double-A this season and has acquitted himself well so far. The only knock on him is that his ground ball rate isn't very good, but he's a hard thrower who could always move into the bullpen if necessary. 4) Tyler Pastornicky, SS - The 14th best prospect in the Braves system, Pastornicky fits a lot of what the Astros seem to look for in a prospect. He's got speed up the middle, a little pop and should stick at shortstop. The only problem here is that Atlanta acquired Pastornicky last season in the deal with the Blue Jays for Alex Gonzalez and is their most advanced shortstop prospect. 5) Edward Salcedo, 3B - Recently moved to third base, Salcedo provides a power/speed combination that should be pretty attractive to Houston. He's not a very good base stealer yet, but he tries hard. He's also a toolsy guy with a big frame, much like Jimmy Paredes, so you know the Astros scouts will like him. He's currently in the South Atlantic League, so he'd be pretty far off from reaching the majors. 6) J.J. Hoover, RHP - Another good pitching prospect, who's done very well, bouncing from the starting rotation to the bullpen in Double-A. Hoover strikes out about one per inning with control on par with Minor and gives up a surprisingly few number of homers, even though he's a pretty extreme fly ball pitcher. A quick refresher on the value of prospects shows us that a Top 50 pitcher is worth 15.9 million, a Top 100 pitcher is worth 9.8 million, a Grade B pitcher is worth 7.3 million, a Grade C+ pitcher 23 or older is worth 1.5 million and a Grade C hitter under 22 is worth 0.7 million. That means Delgado and Minor would cost 15.9 million, Vizcaino is worth 9.8 million, Pastornicky is worth 0.7 million, Salcedo is worth 5.5 million and Hoover is worth 7.3 million. It seems likely that the Astros would be asked to take back one of the Braves major leaguers at the same time as they traded for Pence. Seeing as Schaefer doesn't really make much money, that leaves Nate McLouth coming back in any deal. So, consider that in the next few scenarios. Trade Scenario 1: Braves trade McLouth, Mike Minor, Tyler Pastornicky and Edward Salcedo for Hunter Pence - This trade brings two high-level talents into the Houston system in Minor and Salcedo. They're both at different levels of development, but it gives Houston both immediate return and a shot at future growth, much like Wade got in the Roy Oswalt deal. It also works well value-wise, as the prospects will be around $20 million, plus whatever McLouth provides. It's probably underselling Pence a bit, but it'd still be a pretty good deal. Trade Scenario 2: Braves trade McLouth, Randall Delgado, Salcedo and J.J. Hoover for Hunter Pence - In this trade, we're swapping out Delgado for Minor and adding in Hoover, who I like a lot. It gives Houston more value than they got in the first scenario, but it's probably more than the Braves would be willing to part with. Trade Scenario 3: Braves trade McLouth, Delgado, Minor, Pastornicky and Hoover for Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn - Here's where things get interesting. We didn't add Michael Bourn into the original equation, but he probably makes more sense for the Braves than anyone. Adding in both players allows Houston to get both Top 50 pitchers (while still leaving Julio Teheran for the Braves), plus adding another guy who would rocket up Houston's system in Hoover. It guts the current Houston roster, but adds three pitchers who could join Lyles in a potential playoff rotation some day, plus a more valuable version of Angel Sanchez. As I said at the beginning of this article, I don't find any of these scenarios terribly plausible, but there is enough here that Houston could actually get a good return for Pence. Minor and Hoover would be the prizes of these trades and McLouth would at least provide a stopgap in right until some of the young players are ready to contribute. What do you think? Which trade works best for you? Do you see the Braves making a move for Pence?
|
|
|
|
Post by astrosgm on Jul 17, 2011 22:31:38 GMT -5
www.crawfishboxes.com/2011/6/30/2251804/houston-astros-trade-scenarios-the-detroit-tigers-and-wandy-rodriguezTrade Scenarios: The Detroit Tigers And Wandy Rodriguez I was going to write something similar to what Brian McTaggart already did, looking at where the Astros stand at midseason. But, that thought depressed me too much to go through with it. Instead, I was very intrigued by this report by Fox Sports' Jon Paul Morosi, talking about what the Detroit Tigers are thinking in terms of trades. See, Detroit recently took over the lead in the American League Central, after the once-front running Cleveland Indians have regressed a bit. Unfortunately, Detroit's rotation is a bit lacking and they're being forced to turn to a "Furbush" to get through the next few weeks. Which is exactly why they're looking for pitching right now. Add in that they're also looking for a left-hander and voila! A trade rumor immediately appears. I'm not opposed to Wandy getting traded; in fact, I think he's the most likely candidate. So, let's break down what a possible deal with Detroit could look like, in this topsy-turvy world where Ed Wade could be making this his last trade as an Astros GM. First things first, let's list the possible prospects Houston would be interested in. Jacob Turner, right-handed pitcher - The top prospect in Detroit's system, Turner is a young fireballer who is having a decent season with the Double-A Erie SeaWolves. He's struck out 72 in 86 2/3 innings and has pretty good control on top of that. His best pitch is his fastball which he throws 92-94, but his curve isn't far behind. Turner is a Top 25 prospect in the majors, though, and probably wouldn't get included in a deal. Andy Oliver, left-handed pitcher - You may remember Oliver from the drama surrounding his last years at Kentucky. The lefty was ruled ineligible because he talked with an agent about the draft following his junior year, fought the decision and was ultimately denied his appeal. That meant he went a year without pitching for anyone but the Witchita AirHogs before being drafted by Detroit last summer. Oliver even made the majors last season, but didn't pitch terribly well. He's currently at Triple-A, where's he's got a 5.00 ERA with 72 strikeouts in 75 2/3 innings. His problem seems to be in control, as he's walking guys at a clip around 4.00 BB/9. Francisco Martinez, third baseman: An interesting guy, who's also reached Double-A at the ripe age of 20. Martinez was ranked as the fourth-best prospect in Detroit's system (ranked overall at No. 25 by Baseball America) this offseason. He's not going to be one of Tim's favorites, as his on-base percentage sits around .322 this season, but he shows power and a little bit of speed (though he gets caught a lot). He's also got the arm to play third, if the other parts of his defense can get cleaned up some. That doesn't appear to have happened yet, as he's made 22 errors so far this season at third. Cale Iorg, shortstop: The Astros know his family a little bit, having drafted brother Eli in the second round a few years back. Cale plays shortstop, but can't hit a lick. BA's writeup suggests it's because he can't see breaking balls well enough to react to them. The reason he made it past short season ball with that skill set is that he's gifted with the glove. That might be enough for Houston to take a chance on him as a little Angel Sanchez insurance. Casper Wells, outfielder: The first major leaguer we've gotten to on this list, Wells has appeared in 52 games for Detroit this season. He hasn't found as much success as last year, when he hit .322 with a .538 slugging percentage in 99 plate appearances. The 26-year old might be an intriguing piece to add in, giving the Astros a backup outfield bat with some pop. He can also play center field and is a bit of a power/speed combo guy, stealing 25 bases and hitting 25 home runs in the minors in 2008. Robbie Weinhardt, right-hander: Had to throw in a reliever, didn't I? Weinhardt pitched in two games this season with the big league team before getting dropped all the way back to Double-A. He's having a heck of a time finding a rhythm this season, but the potential is still there. May be a nice buy-low option. With that short list, what kinds of deals make the most sense? Before we start throwing out trade scenarios, let's get some parameters set up. Using that tried and true Trade Value Calculator, we can pinpoint Wandy's value. Because of his start to this season, let's tweak Wandy's expected WAR to 3.0 for this season, 3.5 for the two following and 3.0 for the final season of his contract. That leaves him with a surplus value of 16.7 million, which is still plenty valuable. A quick refresher on the value of prospects shows us that a Top 25 pitcher is worth 15.9 million, a Grade B pitcher (Oliver) is worth 7.3 million, a Grade C+ pitcher 23 or older (Weinhardt) is worth 1.5 million and a Grade C hitter under 22 (Martinez) is worth 0.7 million. Add in values for Iorg and Wells at around 2 million (because of MLB experience) and we've got a framework for making deals. Deal No. 1: Jacob Turner, Robbie Weinhardt and Cale Iorg for Wandy Rodriguez - In this trade, which is highly improbable, Houston gets a young power arm who's pitching at Double-A to pair with players like Jose Altuve, Dallas Keuchel, J.D. Martinez and the next wave of Houston's talent. They also get a middle reliever, which Ed Wade loves and a serviceable bench infielder who may never hit. The money is a bit more than Wandy is worth (19.4 million to 16.9 million), but it appears Houston will play hardball on Wandy to get a premium deal. The only problem with this deal is it gives no room for error. Turner must pan out for the Astros to get much value at all out of it. Deal No. 2: Andy Oliver, Francisco Martinez, Charlie Furbush for Wandy - This one makes a little more sense, as Oliver and Furbush are close to the majors, provide decent value, but wouldn't be crushing for Detroit to give up. In Martinez, the Astros get a player who is toolsy and has some upside, but hasn't tapped into that potential yet. Not a great trade value-wise, as Furbush's value is down right now, but it gives them some relatively quick return. Deal No. 3: Oliver, Martinez, Wells and Casey Crosby for Wandy - Adding another new name to the mix, simply because Detroit doesn't have enough ammo outside of Turner to get an interesting deal done. This one comes close, though, as both Oliver and Crosby are Grade B guys. The knock on Crosby is that he's had some injury problems and there are questions on whether he can stick as a starter. Wells is also an interesting piece, as he provides some intriguing upside, but doesn't really have a place to play in Houston (unless Hunter Pence also gets moved). This one gets the Astros a value of 17 million, which may be pretty close to Wandy's value. I could keep going, but those seem like three pretty even trades, going by the Trade Value Calculator. Would you make any of those deals, were you Ed Wade? Do you think any of them are realistic?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2011 6:00:39 GMT -5
Woah Astros!!! Haha
I heard somethin about my Yanks tryin to get a lefty reliever, namely the Cubs' Sean Marshall. They would also need to take Alfonso Soriano. Has anyone else heard this? I know, not a blockbuster...
|
|
|
|
Post by astrosgm on Jul 18, 2011 13:08:01 GMT -5
Woah Astros!!! Haha I heard somethin about my Yanks tryin to get a lefty reliever, namely the Cubs' Sean Marshall. They would also need to take Alfonso Soriano. Has anyone else heard this? I know, not a blockbuster... I doubt even the Yankees would take Soriano just to acquire Sean Marshall, and I don't think the Cubs are really looking to move him, only if there overwhelmed from what I have seen. Plus they need him with Marmol imploding lately, so I doubt it really |
|
|
|
Post by astrosgm on Jul 18, 2011 13:09:02 GMT -5
www.pinstripealley.com/2011/7/18/2280538/why-the-yankees-arent-promoting-jesus-monteroWhy the Yankees Aren't Promoting Jesus Montero Jesus Montero has not played a game in the MLB yet, and many fans are perplexed about why that is. Montero is the Yankees top prospect, and is one of the best hitting prospects in baseball. That Montero plays catcher, a position that the Yankees have had troubles with this season, is just an added bonus. Montero has shown over and over again why he belongs in the MLB, and the majority of fans believe he should be in the MLB right now. Whether it is a platoon with Russell Martin, or the full time starting job, I agree. However, the Yankees do not. Many fans have tried to analyze why exactly the Yankees have not promoted Montero. Sure, Montero did just get hurt, which will certainly give the Yankees another excuse to not call him up, but that can't be the main reason, as he has not proved to be injury prone. Sure, Montero has shown a little lack of effort, but that is no reason to not promote someone. Here are the possible reasons, in order of how likely I believe they are: 1. The Yankees simply believe Russell Martin is a capable starting catcher, and that gives them no reason to call up Montero. For the Yankees, it might not be about Montero. It might be that Russell Martin is a "big name" catcher, that had a monster April for the Yankees. That April could have been just enough to ensure that Martin does not lose his job this season, even to Montero. Joe Girardi has shown a tendency to get attached to players (cough Sergio Mitre cough) and Russell Martin could be that kind of player. If this is the case, which I think it is, Martin would have to go on the DL (which is extremely unlikely) for Montero to be promoted. Otherwise, there is almost a zero percent chance Montero is promoted before September. 2. Montero is trade bait, and nothing more than that. Perhaps the Yankees believe Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez, J.R. Murphy, or another minor leaguer is the catcher of the future. Maybe they think it is Russell Martin. Either way, this would be terrible if it is true. I am a huge fan of Romine, almost to a fault, but I still feel Montero is the better prospect right now. Enough about me, though. If this is the case, it still makes almost zero sense. The Yankees should want to show that their top hitting prospect can hit major league pitching. Many people have mentioned the possibility of "exposing" Montero as a minors only hitter, but there is no evidence at all that Montero can't hit major league pitching. If this is the case expect Montero to be dealt before July 31st. If not, we could see Montero in the majors soon enough. 3. Montero really does have attitude problems and the Yankees aren't willing to put up with it. I almost didn't even include this option, as I feel it has very little chance of being true, but it's still worth mentioning. Montero has had over a year to progress both athletically and mentally, and he could be showing little progression mentally. Perhaps Dave Miley, Scranton's manager, hasn't given the thumbs up yet. While this is very unlikely, if it is true this does not bode well for the future of Montero and the Yankees. 4. Brian Cashman dated Jesus Montero's mother and she dumped him. Something like that, some reason why Cashman has something against Montero other than Montero's peformance on the field. This is of course a joke, but so is the fact that Montero is not in the majors. Call up Jesus Montero. Thoughts?
|
|
|
|
Post by Jacob (Former Tigers GM) on Jul 18, 2011 13:21:07 GMT -5
Wow the Astros are all over the board here, im set though my brewers got K-Rod.
|
|
|
|
Post by astrosgm on Jul 18, 2011 13:28:06 GMT -5
Wow the Astros are all over the board here, im set though my brewers got K-Rod. What can I say, I'm biased haha  And I'm curious to who those players to be named later will be. I'm thinking that one or if not both are guys that can't be traded yet that were drafted last year, as the rules are you cannot trade away a prospect until a year after they signed. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2011 16:48:13 GMT -5
1. About the Marshall thing, I saw it on the ESPN MLB General message boards, maybe not totally reliable tho lol...the Yanks need a lefty RP...BADLY
2. I agree, Montero should be a major leaguer now. He's rotting away in the minors ;(
3. The ptbnls will not be too good
|
|
|
|
Post by astrosgm on Jul 18, 2011 19:18:01 GMT -5
I really do think the only reason they are keeping Montero down is because of Girardi having a mancrush on Martin. That and the fact as stated above, Casman is a motherf......... |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2011 19:41:25 GMT -5
It is true, Ritardi is gay for his veterans. Montero COULD DH, but no, his precious Posada would be summoned to the bench.
Cash is an idiot. He may be gone next yr (contract expires).
BTW, you a Yanks or Stros fan? You seem to know a lot about both
|
|
|
|
Post by astrosgm on Jul 18, 2011 19:52:53 GMT -5
It is true, Ritardi is gay for his veterans. Montero COULD DH, but no, his precious Posada would be summoned to the bench. Cash is an idiot. He may be gone next yr (contract expires). BTW, you a Yanks or Stros fan? You seem to know a lot about both Oh, note this isn't me, just stories I pulled from some different websites. But I know ALOT about the Astros, but not so much the Yankees. I am just knowledgable of certain prospectsa and MILB and baseball in general! |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2011 20:05:35 GMT -5
Yeah I know (knew you didn't have that much time haha), but your comments about Girardi and Cash sounded like somethin from a Yanks fan  Ight you're like me, I know a ton about the Yanks and their history, but I try to keep up leaguewide. |
|
|
|
Post by astrosgm on Jul 18, 2011 20:09:21 GMT -5
Yeah I know (knew you didn't have that much time haha), but your comments about Girardi and Cash sounded like somethin from a Yanks fan Ight you're like me, I know a ton about the Yanks and their history, but I try to keep up leaguewide. Most of my knowledge comes from other websites though I must say, mostly deepleagues.com, minorleagueball.com, and if you didn't know, every team has a blogspot blog run for them, taht is often very thorough. And reason me knowing the Yankees partially, is my dad was a huge fan, and that I hate them |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2011 20:14:34 GMT -5
Yeah I know (knew you didn't have that much time haha), but your comments about Girardi and Cash sounded like somethin from a Yanks fan Ight you're like me, I know a ton about the Yanks and their history, but I try to keep up leaguewide. Most of my knowledge comes from other websites though I must say, mostly deepleagues.com, minorleagueball.com, and if you didn't know, every team has a blogspot blog run for them, taht is often very thorough. And reason me knowing the Yankees partially, is my dad was a huge fan, and that I hate them %#^$ you, you $&@:%#^*!!!!!!!! (that's just gibberish). Can you tell your dad that I say hello? He seems like a cool guy, we can talk Yanks baseball whenever. I'm serious... |
|
|
|
Post by astrosgm on Jul 18, 2011 20:17:23 GMT -5
Most of my knowledge comes from other websites though I must say, mostly deepleagues.com, minorleagueball.com, and if you didn't know, every team has a blogspot blog run for them, taht is often very thorough. And reason me knowing the Yankees partially, is my dad was a huge fan, and that I hate them %#^$ you, you $&@:%#^*!!!!!!!! (that's just gibberish). Can you tell your dad that I say hello? He seems like a cool guy, we can talk Yanks baseball whenever. I'm serious... Long story short, I'm not in contact with him anymore so probably not haha |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2011 20:19:43 GMT -5
Oh damn...well you're a decent human being so you should suffice haha...nah I'll talk baseball with a knowledgable fan like yourself  I'm moderately okay haha. One thing I could see happening is possibly Wandy to the Yanks? |
|
|
|
Post by astrosgm on Jul 18, 2011 20:27:19 GMT -5
Oh fudge lmao, accidently modifed yours lmao I'm moderately okay , haha. One thing I could see happening is possibly Wandy to the Yanks? Is what I said! |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2011 20:44:05 GMT -5
At first I was like, "Oh wow, editing? What a d1$/! LMAO!
Astros askin as much for Wandy as Colorado and Ubaldo. COL asked for Montero, Betances, Banuelos and Nova. LOL @ askin for that.
If the Astros asked for that, I might...uhh...I don't know. I might just ROFL. If Cash accepted I might start following the Mets.
This thread has turned into a conversation between the two of us haha...I gotta stop using IM expressions...oy vey
|
|
|
|
Post by astrosgm on Jul 18, 2011 20:54:58 GMT -5
At first I was like, "Oh wow, editing? What a d1$/! LMAO! Astros askin as much for Wandy as Colorado and Ubaldo. COL asked for Montero, Betances, Banuelos and Nova. LOL @ askin for that. If the Astros asked for that, I might...uhh...I don't know. I might just ROFL. If Cash accepted I might start following the Mets. This thread has turned into a conversation between the two of us haha...I gotta stop using IM expressions...oy vey I doubt that they would ask for anything close to what the Rockies are asking for Ubaldo. I can see somewhat of a same return that the Astros got for Oswalt last year. One MLB ready SP, one top 5 prospect in the Yankees system, and another in the top 10. Something along the lines of Nova, One of their Catchers, and a younger pitching prospects |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2011 21:00:02 GMT -5
Thought I heard that somewhere, prolly an overreaction on the Yanks message board haha
So...I think something realistic would be Nova/Murphy/Phelps? How is Wandy doing this year anyway?
|
|
|
|
Post by astrosgm on Jul 18, 2011 21:07:09 GMT -5
Thought I heard that somewhere, prolly an overreaction on the Yanks message board haha So...I think something realistic would be Nova/Murphy/Phelps? How is Wandy doing this year anyway? Season: W-L: 6-6 · ERA: 3.67 · K: 93 · BB: 36 · IP: 108.0 · WHIP: 1.37 Statline so far this year. Fairly good, would instantly be the no 2 starter on that Yanks staff IMO, and is under contract for two more years at a modest 8mil per haha And I would say something along the lines of Nova + Romine + Brett Marshall. Or perhaps Eduardo Nunez along the lines, or possibly a straight up Wandy for Nova + Montero. Unlikely, but you never know! |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2011 21:13:02 GMT -5
Not bad, but remember, the NLC is ehh and the ALE is pretty damn good!
I'd like Wandy. No shot in hell I give Nova and Montero lol...something with Romine may be possible. I feel like saying "I'll let you know and we'll see if we can work out a deal" haha...I can be Cashman!
|
|
|
|
Post by astrosgm on Jul 18, 2011 21:17:14 GMT -5
Not bad, but remember, the NLC is ehh and the ALE is pretty damn good! I'd like Wady. No shot in hell I give Nova and Montero lol...something with Romine may be possible. I feel like saying "I'll let you know and we'll see if we can work out a deal" haha...I can be Cashman! Still would be th no 2 pitcher their IMO, Wandy has been one of the top 5 LHP in the NL the past 4 years, so he is fairly good haha. I am still thinking their is a chance Montero could get traded if a deal came along. If it was for Wandy I'd say Montero plus a young upsde pitcher in A ball. Nova + Romine + Brett Marshall I still really like this one, although I could see Nova being bumped out and instead bumping in their Noesi or Banuelos, although Romine would probably be taken out in the process |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2011 21:22:50 GMT -5
Err yeah he'd be better than Burnett (I hope lol)...as I said, he's solid, just I don't know how many good NL LHP there are haha. He's a solid #2 to me.
No way I personally would deal Montero here, nor Banuelos. Possibly Noesi but I like him.
|
|
|
|
Post by astrosgm on Jul 18, 2011 21:24:31 GMT -5
Yeh, I think if anything the 'stros won't be able to get Montero or Banuelos unless the Yankees get into desperation mode.
I still think that the Nova + Romine + Brett Marshall for Wandy is pretty solid
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2011 21:29:20 GMT -5
I agree. Let's tell our respective GMs haha
|
|
|
|
Post by astrosgm on Jul 19, 2011 14:48:29 GMT -5
Detroit Tigers Rumors: Aaron Harang www.blessyouboys.com/2011/7/18/2281921/detroit-tigers-rumors-aaron-harang-derek-lowe-carlos-beltran-updates#storyjumpThe busy day at the blog may never end. Here are a few more rumor updates: Jon Heyman reports -- confirmed by Fox Sports' Jon Paul Morosi -- the Tigers are interested in starting pitcher Aaron Harang of the San Diego Padres. The Indians, too, are said to be interested in the former Reds righthander. In his first season with the Padres Harang sports a 3.19 ERA for the season -- 2.92 at spacious PetCo Park and 3.81 away from it. He has 6.19 strikeouts per nine innings, or a rate of 16.9%. For the more predictive stats, his FIP is 3.65, or 3.92 if his home run rate is adjusted to league average. However, ZiPS projects a 4.42 ERA for the rest of the season. Before pitching in San Diego, Harang's ERA had not been below 4.21 in the previous three seasons. He missed a portion of the 2010 season due to back spasms. Harang has been effective in his two starts since returning from the disabled list with a foot injury. He has not allowed a run in the 13 innings since the July 9 return against the Dodgers. In that game, he had a no-hitter through six innings before being replaced by the bullpen. On July 14, he shut down the Giants for seven innings. Harang would be owed the remainder of his $3.5 million contract. Harang has a mutual option for $5 million for 2012 with a $500K buyout. I'm not sure what the Padres would ask in return. In June, Heyman wrote the Padres may not give him up easily due to his bounceback year and team-friendly contract. I kind of like this idea. There is always a risk in bringing a National League pitcher to the American League, but it seems like most of the names the Tigers are linked to pitch in the NL. But Harang might be a nice compromise that brings a good player -- not a great one -- at a decent price without compromising the future. In any case, I have no doubt the Tigers will eventually find their starting pitcher. |
|
|
|
Post by astrosgm on Jul 23, 2011 22:14:58 GMT -5
Another Article About Washington Nationals' Bryce Harper's Early Struggles At [Insert Minor League Level Here] www.federalbaseball.com/2011/7/23/2289740/washington-nationals-bryce-harper#storyjumpAnyone who has followed the last two years of Bryce Harper's development shrugged when talk of his slow start at Double-A Harrisburg surfaced. January 2010, Las Vegas Review-Journal. In an article by Todd Dewey entitled, "Sky's limit for phenom Harper, College of Southern Nevada", then-CSN baseball coach Tim Chambers talked about how Harper should be a junior in high school not a freshman in college, and about how, "Harper got off to a slow start in fall ball at CSN," before turning it around and eventually finishing his first year of college ball with a .443 AVG (101-for-228), 23 doubles, four triples, 31 home runs, 98 RBI and 20 stolen bases in 66 games. Washington Post writer Adam Kilgore, in an October 2010 article entitled, "Bryce Harper is the center of attention at Arizona Fall League", discussed the 18-year-old's preparation for the Arizona Fall League and noted that when Harper first saw action in the Florida Instructional league he struggled at the plate, but, "The Nationals did not alter his swing, even as Harper got off to a slow start. He felt he needed at-bats to knock the rust off his swing, and by the end, he had." After a successful stint playing part time in the Arizona Fall League, Harper hung around a little while longer than expected with the big league team this Spring, but, "When Harper got off to a slow start this spring," with the Class-A Hagerstown Suns as ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick wrote in an article on Harper's development entitled, "Bryce Harper's journey in its early stage": "...the Nationals sent him for an eye exam, and they were stunned to discover how bad Harper's vision was. Harper was fitted for contact lenses and immediately went on a tear at the plate. It's frightening to think what might happen now that he can actually see." With his vision corrected, "Harper laid waste to the South Atlantic League," as the Washington Post's Adam Kilgore wrote in an article (which is essentially the same thing as I've written here with less random quotes now that I look at it) entitled, "Bryce Harper’s early struggles in Harrisburg are nothing to worry about", in which WaPost writer noted that, "...that was only after he had seven hits and nine strikeouts in his first 31 at-bats." "Harper is the youngest player in the Eastern League," the Washington Post's Nats beat writer observed, and he'll adjust to Double-A as he has to each previous level he's encountered, "It will just take time, and Harper knows from experience how that works." "I struggle pretty much every time I get going at a new level," Harper told reporters this past Thursday before a Senators' game with the Richmond Spiders. "I struggled in high school a little bit, struggled in college a little bit, struggled in Single-A a little bit, and I'm not really struggling right now. The balls aren't falling. I'm hitting balls hard and having good at bats and that's all you can ask for." (Harper had a .226 BABIP heading into last night's game.) The four-game series with the Squirrels which started Thursday night might be the start of something. After going 3 for 6 in a doubleheader Friday night, Harper's got a three-game hit streak going, after hitting in just one of his previous 21 at bats. The 18-year-old outfielder's now hitting .217 (10 for 46) with all ten hits singles, and 4 walks in 51 plate appearances. Unfortunately, Nats fans will have to wait til next season to read about Harper struggling at Triple-A or after that the major league level.
|
|
