Projections Primer - 2/23/18
Feb 23, 2018 19:14:07 GMT -5
Rockies GM (Alex), Angels GM (Derrick), and 3 more like this
Post by Astros GM (Will) on Feb 23, 2018 19:14:07 GMT -5
The season preview contained some great writing and got me super psyched to finish up my own projections models and share with you guys how I think it's improved and hopefully seek out some new input from our new owners.
Just as a quick debrief on the projections - I have made some updates to the modeling of the projections in how bench points are applied to hitters, rotation, and bullpen. After evaluating 2017, it was apparent that I was over-predicting points scored and I am hoping to be a little bit more accurate. In general, I think over-prediction is going to be a built-in quirk because it has to assume that each team has optimized lineups and are not absent from managing their team.
Moving on, I wanted to share an interesting trend that I've noticed.
2012 - 140,100 points total - first ESPN year
2013 - 142,600 points total - two 7300+ point teams
2014 - 134,300 points total
2015 - 140,100 points total - old owner exodus
2016 - 146,500 points total
2017 - 148,600 points total - introduced new QS scoring system, eliminated GIDP category for hitters
In 2018, the MLB season is beginning on the weekend, so we have an 11-day scoring period to start the season to go along with the 10-day all-star break scoring period as well. Adding 4 days to the schedule is an extra 1100 points.
Additionally, every season we have an influx of 360 new players to the league rosters via the draft, which is a much higher rate than that which players leave rosters and never return. I count around 100 players that went unsigned or released during free agency. This never-ending increase in roster size serves to deepen the bench as more and more of the points available are being captured on rosters. Just a quick comparison of 2016-2017 shows this progress on a league level for the hitters:
(Stats reported as GP per Week per Team and IP per Week per Team)
It may not seem like a lot, but with the average GP = 2.9 points and multiplying by 30 teams across 19 weeks, this means 2500 points were added just due to teams getting an extra 1.5 GP per Week.
Based on this trend, the owner activity levels, and some of the bottom dwelling teams from years past making more of an effort to compete, I expect the overall points scored to continue rising.
This will be reflected in the projections calling for 13 teams to score over 6000 points, 21 teams to score at least 5000 points, and 1 team to break the points scored record. These numbers will come down as the remaining MLB free agents sign and playing time projections are re-distributed, but it is telling to say the least.
With all that "interesting" stuff out of the way, I've added some new features that I wanted to tease before doing an AL and NL post next week.
1) Complete Playoff Odds by Round, including World Series. I tried to mirror the format that is used here: www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
- This is based on 10000 Monte Carlo Simulations so 2.9% odds of being Champions means out of 10000 simulations, the team won the World Series 290 times.
- NLDS: Odds of reaching the NLDS
- NLCS: Odds of reaching the NLCS
- World Series: Odds of reaching the WS
- Champions: Odds of winning the WS
2) First Pick Odds - odds of a team finishing with the worst record and/or fewest points scored in the case of a tiebreaker. Some teams are clearly gunning for that first overall pick.
3) Games Played (Hitting) and Games Started (Pitching) projections per week per team. This will be a good indicator of team depth
4) League Rankings for Hitting, Rotation, and Bullpen. Bench rankings, which have previously been reported, are now bundled into their respective category from the 3 listed.
5) Win Count Odds. Want to know the odds of winning a certain number of games? This chart is for you (Teams omitted for now).
That's enough teasing for now. We will talk again next week!
Just as a quick debrief on the projections - I have made some updates to the modeling of the projections in how bench points are applied to hitters, rotation, and bullpen. After evaluating 2017, it was apparent that I was over-predicting points scored and I am hoping to be a little bit more accurate. In general, I think over-prediction is going to be a built-in quirk because it has to assume that each team has optimized lineups and are not absent from managing their team.
Moving on, I wanted to share an interesting trend that I've noticed.
2012 - 140,100 points total - first ESPN year
2013 - 142,600 points total - two 7300+ point teams
2014 - 134,300 points total
2015 - 140,100 points total - old owner exodus
2016 - 146,500 points total
2017 - 148,600 points total - introduced new QS scoring system, eliminated GIDP category for hitters
In 2018, the MLB season is beginning on the weekend, so we have an 11-day scoring period to start the season to go along with the 10-day all-star break scoring period as well. Adding 4 days to the schedule is an extra 1100 points.
Additionally, every season we have an influx of 360 new players to the league rosters via the draft, which is a much higher rate than that which players leave rosters and never return. I count around 100 players that went unsigned or released during free agency. This never-ending increase in roster size serves to deepen the bench as more and more of the points available are being captured on rosters. Just a quick comparison of 2016-2017 shows this progress on a league level for the hitters:
(Stats reported as GP per Week per Team and IP per Week per Team)
Year | GP | IP | GP Pts Added | IP Pts Added |
2016 | 45.8 | 46.4 | ||
2017 | 47.3 | 46.0 | +2500 | -450 |
It may not seem like a lot, but with the average GP = 2.9 points and multiplying by 30 teams across 19 weeks, this means 2500 points were added just due to teams getting an extra 1.5 GP per Week.
Based on this trend, the owner activity levels, and some of the bottom dwelling teams from years past making more of an effort to compete, I expect the overall points scored to continue rising.
This will be reflected in the projections calling for 13 teams to score over 6000 points, 21 teams to score at least 5000 points, and 1 team to break the points scored record. These numbers will come down as the remaining MLB free agents sign and playing time projections are re-distributed, but it is telling to say the least.
With all that "interesting" stuff out of the way, I've added some new features that I wanted to tease before doing an AL and NL post next week.
1) Complete Playoff Odds by Round, including World Series. I tried to mirror the format that is used here: www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
- This is based on 10000 Monte Carlo Simulations so 2.9% odds of being Champions means out of 10000 simulations, the team won the World Series 290 times.
- NLDS: Odds of reaching the NLDS
- NLCS: Odds of reaching the NLCS
- World Series: Odds of reaching the WS
- Champions: Odds of winning the WS
2) First Pick Odds - odds of a team finishing with the worst record and/or fewest points scored in the case of a tiebreaker. Some teams are clearly gunning for that first overall pick.
3) Games Played (Hitting) and Games Started (Pitching) projections per week per team. This will be a good indicator of team depth
4) League Rankings for Hitting, Rotation, and Bullpen. Bench rankings, which have previously been reported, are now bundled into their respective category from the 3 listed.
5) Win Count Odds. Want to know the odds of winning a certain number of games? This chart is for you (Teams omitted for now).
That's enough teasing for now. We will talk again next week!