Free Agency Preview
Nov 23, 2018 23:26:52 GMT -5
Angels GM (Derrick), Royals GM (Bill), and 3 more like this
Post by Ken Rosenthal on Nov 23, 2018 23:26:52 GMT -5
--NEW YORK, N.Y. -- Ken Rosenthal is back during this Thanksgiving weekend, giving you all a tasty preview of the crop of Free Agents on the market this off-season. Before we dive into it, a couple news items from the off-season.
Starting Pitching
---1/2 Starters
Zack Greinke (15.5 points per start) - restricted STL
Stephen Strasburg (15 points per start)
Jon Lester (14 points per start) - restricted CIN
Johnny Cueto (13.7 points per start) - restricted NYY
Dallas Keuchel (13.5 points per start)
This year's cream of the pitching crop is led by Zack Greinke and Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg joined this group recently after he was amnestied by the Met's new GM in favor of $140m in cap space over the next four seasons. He and Greinke should be get the biggest contracts for pitchers in the off-season. Being St. Louis matched Clayton Kershaw at $40m a couple years ago, one might expect the Cardinals, with $57m in cap space, likely to do the same with Greinke. Jon Lester is another top of the rotation option, and the Reds have just $16m in cap space to try and retain him. Dallas Keuchel is another arm who could get paid this off-season, especially being the second unrestricted best option to Strasburg. Cueto had Tommy John and will miss 2019, but could be a nice bargain beyond that.
---3/4 Starters
Mike Minor (12.7 points per start) - restricted CLE
James Shields (12 points per start)
Wade LeBlanc (11.3 points per start)
Garrett Richards (11.2 points per start) - restricted WAS
Clayton Richard (11 points per start) - restricted HOU
Lance Lynn (10.9 points per start)
Yu Darvish (10.6 points per start) - restricted CHW
The other impact arms include a group of veterans led by James Shields, Lance Lynn, and Clayton Richard. All dependable arms who can really improve a rotation when healthy for a full season. Yu Darvish is the big wild card in this group. When at his best, Darvish belongs in the ace conversation. However, he never really got going last year and might see a dip in his value this off-season because of it. A potential plus for the White Sox.
--Predictions
The Seattle Mariners sign Stephen Strasburg to a 4 year contract at $30m.
The St. Louis Caridnals match an offer on Zack Greinke for 2 years at $27m.
The Los Angeles Dodgers sign Jon Lester to a 3 year deal at $20m a season.
The Milwaukee Brewers sign Dallas Keuchel to a 2 year deal at $18.5m a season.
A team will pay $10m+ for one of the 3/4 starters only to find them in an MLB bullpen to start the season.
Relief Pitching
--Closers
Wade Davis (43 saves) - restricted DET
Brad Hand (32 saves)
Shane Green (32 saves) - restricted BOS
Bud Norris (28 saves)
Sergio Romo (25 saves)
Brandon Morrow (22 saves) - restricted OAK
While it's not quite the bonanza we had last year when Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman, and Kenley Jansen were all on the market, there's still some great closing options for teams in need of a boost in the bullpen. Wade Davis, restricted by the Tigers, should command the biggest offer. The Tigers have $28m to spend and Charlie Blackmon is a restricted Free Agent. I doubt they'll have leftover finances for Davis. Brad Hand is the other elite pen arm on the market. He had 32 saves in a timeshare last season and could be even better this year. Beyond these two, the other four have a chance to be closers this season, but being a relief pitcher is a volatile business. Throw your dart and hope it lands.
--Set Up Men
Kelvin Herrera (17 saves)
Arodys Vizcaino (16 saves) - restricted BOS
Jeremy Jeffress (15 saves) - restricted NYM
Blake Parker (14 saves)
Matt Barnes (25 holds)
Tommy Hunter (25 holds)
Joe Kelly (21 holds)
Ryan Pressly (21 holds)
The rest of these guys are all good bets for holds or a potential closing job at some point during the season. My advice to owners? Get one of them, but don't break the bank for a particular arm. As much as you think you know... you probably don't. Y'know?
--Predictions
The Detroit Tigers, unable to match Blackmon, match Wade Davis for 2 years at $14.5m.
The Miami Marlins sign Brad Hand for 3 years at $12.5m.
Two owners get into a bidding war and pay more than $12m for another bullpen arm, though they shouldn't.
Catchers
--Starting Options
Yadier Molina (3.2 points per game) - restricted STL
Wilson Ramos (3.1 points per game) - restricted COL
Francisco Cervelli (2.8 points per game)
Kurt Suzuki (2.8 points per game)
The ever thin catching market is back and better than ever. The two best options are restricted in Yadier Molina and Wilson Ramos. Molina is almost sure to be re-signed by the Cardinals with their plethora of cap space. Ramos, on the other hand, is almost sure to be available with the Rockies just $5m from the cap. Cervelli and Suzuki could both be serviceable options for teams just trying to sit down in this wild game of musical chairs.
--Backups
Nick Hundley (2.1 points per game)
Luke Maile (2.1 points per game)
Jonathan Lucroy (2 points per game)
Here's a couple proven backups that'll score you a couple points a week. Have one, but don't lose sleep over them.
--Predictions
The St. Louis Cardinals match an offer on Yadier Molina for 2 years at $10m.
The Pittsburgh Pirates, in need of a catcher, sign Wilson Ramos to a 2 year deal at $9.5m.
One of the remaining catchers clears $10m as teams get desperate.
First Basemen
--Starters
Matt Carpenter (4.1 points per game)
Jose Abreu (3.5 points per game) - restricted NYM
Ryan Zimmerman (3.3 points per game) - restricted CHC
Joey Votto (3.2 points per game) - restricted SF
Remember last year when Carlos Santana was the big name at first on the market? No longer. This year packs some punch for teams in need of a first baseman. Matt Carpenter, fresh of a near MVP season, is unrestricted in Free Agency after his Option B Arbitration contract expired. He figure to get PAID. Joey Votto, though having had one of the worst seasons of his career, is still a top 5 first baseman in the game and will get paid as such. The Giants have $23m to try to match, I doubt that gets it done. Jose Abreu is above average at the position, though the Mets have plenty of money to retain him. Ryan Zimmerman rounds out the group, though when does he finally drop off?
--Platoon Options
Yonder Alonso (2.9 points per game) - restricted TEX
Mitch Moreland (2.9 points per game) - restricted COL
Logan Morrison (2.5 points per game) - restricted CIN
Lucas Duda (2.3 points per game)
The rest of these options have a lot of power, but can they be trusted to man the first base position for an entire season on a contending team? The answer is likely no. Still, they're not bad options if you have adequate depth at the position.
--Predictions
The Boston Red Sox sign Matt Carpenter to a 3 year deal at $36m.
The Oakland Athletics sign Joey Votto away from the team across the bay for 2 years at $30m.
The New York Mets match Jose Abreu to a 2 year deal at $27m.
One of the platoon options will score 500 or more points while making $7.5m or less.
Second Basemen
--Starters
DJ LeMaheiu (3.5 points per game)
Brian Dozier (3.2 points per game)
Ian Kinsler (3.1 points per game)
Ben Zobrist (2.9 points per game)
Jonathan Villar (2.8 points per game) - restricted TOR
Starlin Castro (2.7 points per game)
Surprise. All the notable second baseman could definitely start for your team. It's a deep market this season, led by DJ LeMaheiu and Brian Dozier. While Dozier had a down year, both have the ability to be top bats in a lineup at second base. Ian Kinsler had a down year, but is just a season removed from scoring nearly 500 points. Ben Zobrist has great value with his usual multi-position eligibility. Villar and Castro are both legitimate starters. No need to fear if you're need of a second baseman this off-season. There should be enough to go around.
--Predictions
The Minnesota Twins sign Brian Dozier to a 2 year contract at $21m.
The Miami marlins sign DJ LeMaheiu to a 2 year contract at $18.5m.
Neither Dozier or LeMaheiu lead this group of 2B free agents in points scored at the end of 2019.
Third Basemen
--Starters
Josh Donaldson (3.4 points per game) - restricted LAA
Eduardo Escobar (3.4 points per game) - restricted SF
Johan Camargo (3.1 points per game)
Todd Frazier (2.9 points per game) - restricted CHW
Kyle Seager (2.7 points per game) - restricted MIA
Evan Longoria (2.7 points per game)
There's some solid options on the market for third base this season. But the common denominator I'm sensing is reliability with any of these players. Josh Donaldson is coming off an injury filled, down season. Will he be worth what he'll probably get paid? Eduardo Escobar broke out this past season, are we sure we can count on him going forward? Johan Camargo played well, but does he have a long-term role set? Kyle Seager had a down year and was very overpaid last season, will teams be shy on him this year? Todd Frazier and Evan Longoria are well past their prime, are they still starting options? Take your chances. The payoff could definitely be worth it.
--Bench Options
Eduardo Nunez (2.6 points per game)
Derek Dietrich (2.4 points per game) - restricted TOR
Nunez and Dietrich will probably pick up multi-position eligibility during the season, providing value beyond just the third base position. Though neither will likely be a legitimate starting option, the ability to rotate them between positions could be a much desired asset in free agency this off-season.
Predictions
The Los Angeles Angels match an offer of 2 years @ $21m with an option to retain Donaldson.
The San Francisco Giants, unable to retain Votto, match an offer on Eduardo Escobar for 2 years @ $16m.
Evan Longoria gets overpaid because of his name value.
Shortstops
--Starters
Jean Segura (3.4 points per game)
Andrelton Simmons (3.2 points per game)
Once again, there's not much on the shortstop market (see last year: J.J. Hardy & Danny Espinosa were the best options). However, at least we have a couple solid shortstops that teams can throw money at this off-season. Both Jean Segura and Andrelton Simmons are both average if not slightly above average at the position. Expect a bidding war on at least one of them.
--Bench Options
Ehire Adrianza (2.1 points per game)
Alcides Escobar (2 points per game)
I'd be nervous if you went into 2019 with either of these players as your starting shortstop. But as your first infield option of the bench? Not a bad bet.
--Predictions
The Arizona Diamondbacks sign Jean Segura to a 1 year deal @ $30m per year with an option
With Gregorius out for the year, the Texas Rangers sign Andrelton Simmons to $14m a year for 2 years.
There's another big trade for an all-star shortstop prior to the start of the season.
Outfielders
--Stars
Charlie Blackmon (4 points per game) - restricted DET
Starling Marte (3.7 points per game)
Tommy Pham (3.6 points per game) - restricted PIT
Justin Upton (3.4 points per game)
There's four star outfielders in my mind on the market this off-season. Arguably the best bat available in free agency, Charlie Blackmon, is on the market as a restricted free agent from Detroit. His price tag is likely to exceed what the Tigers can spend. Starling Marte and Justin Upton are both unrestricted and could both see contracts upwards $25m. Tommy Pham will probably be matched by the Pirates, but his price tag could also jump $20m. Add one of these guys to your lineup and I'm guessing you add at least a win to your season projection.
--Starters
Shin-Soo Choo (3.4 points per game) - restricted TEX
Andrew McCutchen (3.3 points per game) - restricted KC
Ian Desmond (3.2 points per game) - restricted MIN
Steve Pearce (3.1 points per game) - restricted HOU
The second tier of outfield options is a quality group in its own right. Two long-time hitters, Shin-Soo Choo, a Rangers RFA, and Andrew McCutchen, a Royals RFA, will likely see the most money. I'm curious to see how people value Ian Desmond after a 3.2 point season and Steve Pearce after his post-season heroics. Desmond's contract got the better of the Twins last time around.
--Bench Options
Mark Canha (2.6 points per game)
Eric Thames (2.5 points per game) - restricted MIL
Robbie Grossman (2.4 points per game)
Curtis Granderson (2.4 points per game)
Jose Bautista (2.3 points per game)
Gerardo Parra (2.1 points per game) - restricted PHI
Gorkys Hernandez (2 points per game)
This group... who knows. I could see Thames being an above average hitter in a lineup, but he's restricted by Milwaukee. The rest of these guys though? You'll be lucky if you get a starting role and 400 points out of them. All great options though if you already have three established outfielders. Sign them early, because once the top free agents are gone, we might see a rush for this group that balloons their price tags.
--Prospects
Julio Pablo Martinez (prospect) - restricted ARI
Victor Victor Mesa (prospect)
The weird world of international free agents brings us two top 100 prospects that are available via free agency. No idea how much these guys will get paid. Ohtani got $36.6m, but he was projected to be in the majors right away. It's tough to commit that much money to players a season or two off.
--Predictions
The Arizona D'backs sign Charlie Blackmon to a 1 year deal at $44.5m with an option and sell him within a week.
The Seattle Mariners sign Starling Marte to a 3 year deal at $32m per year.
The Pittsburgh Pirates match an offer of 2 years at $25m per year on Tommy Pham.
Beyond Charlie Blackmon, Victor Victor Mesa will get paid more yearly than any other outfielder during free agency.
Designated Hitters
--Utility Options
Nelson Cruz (3.6 points per game) - restricted OAK
Albert Pujols (3.1 points per game)
Kendrys Morales (2.7 points per game) - restricted SD
Victor Martinez (2.2 points per game)
Nelson Cruz is the king of this DH class. Oakland has the cap space to retain him, but I have the feeling a rebuilding team will attempt to sign him to a massive one year deal in effort to trade him to a contender. Pujols is a solid option that could potentially gain first base eligibility as well.
--Predictions
The Seattle Mariners sign Nelson Cruz to a 1 year, $38m deal with an option.
Thanks for reading! Enjoy the rest of your Thanksgiving weekend!
KR
- Rule Changes The league approved multiple rule changes this off-season. The first was removing the silent bidding process from free agency and pivoting to a complete open bidding system for all free agents, including those from the international market. The second rule change involved the end of the rule of a 25-man locked roster for World Series. Finally, while votes are still being taken, it's all but set in stone that the 2019 MiLB Draft Picks will be able to be traded next year after a 16-9 majority among 25 of the 30 GM's of the league that have so far voted.
- New GM's This fall brought some changes to the General Manager crew of BKDB. Longtime GM of the Texas Rangers, Jeff, has been replaced by Andrew who took over in early November. GM Troy stepped down as GM of the New York Mets, soon replaced by GM Ryan who took the team last week. Both clubs, Texas (10-9) and New York (11-8), were middle of the pack last season, which will give both new managers a chance to set the direction for the coming years for each of their teams.
- Machado Moves The Baltimore Orioles sent star shortstop Manny Machado packing to the Minnesota Twins for a package of young players headlined by Gleyber Torres. The move is consistent with the Orioles strategy of looking towards future seasons for success. On the other hand, the trade immediately boosts the rising Twins squad that looks to compete for a playoff spot this season.
Starting Pitching
---1/2 Starters
Zack Greinke (15.5 points per start) - restricted STL
Stephen Strasburg (15 points per start)
Jon Lester (14 points per start) - restricted CIN
Johnny Cueto (13.7 points per start) - restricted NYY
Dallas Keuchel (13.5 points per start)
This year's cream of the pitching crop is led by Zack Greinke and Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg joined this group recently after he was amnestied by the Met's new GM in favor of $140m in cap space over the next four seasons. He and Greinke should be get the biggest contracts for pitchers in the off-season. Being St. Louis matched Clayton Kershaw at $40m a couple years ago, one might expect the Cardinals, with $57m in cap space, likely to do the same with Greinke. Jon Lester is another top of the rotation option, and the Reds have just $16m in cap space to try and retain him. Dallas Keuchel is another arm who could get paid this off-season, especially being the second unrestricted best option to Strasburg. Cueto had Tommy John and will miss 2019, but could be a nice bargain beyond that.
---3/4 Starters
Mike Minor (12.7 points per start) - restricted CLE
James Shields (12 points per start)
Wade LeBlanc (11.3 points per start)
Garrett Richards (11.2 points per start) - restricted WAS
Clayton Richard (11 points per start) - restricted HOU
Lance Lynn (10.9 points per start)
Yu Darvish (10.6 points per start) - restricted CHW
The other impact arms include a group of veterans led by James Shields, Lance Lynn, and Clayton Richard. All dependable arms who can really improve a rotation when healthy for a full season. Yu Darvish is the big wild card in this group. When at his best, Darvish belongs in the ace conversation. However, he never really got going last year and might see a dip in his value this off-season because of it. A potential plus for the White Sox.
--Predictions
The Seattle Mariners sign Stephen Strasburg to a 4 year contract at $30m.
The St. Louis Caridnals match an offer on Zack Greinke for 2 years at $27m.
The Los Angeles Dodgers sign Jon Lester to a 3 year deal at $20m a season.
The Milwaukee Brewers sign Dallas Keuchel to a 2 year deal at $18.5m a season.
A team will pay $10m+ for one of the 3/4 starters only to find them in an MLB bullpen to start the season.
Relief Pitching
--Closers
Wade Davis (43 saves) - restricted DET
Brad Hand (32 saves)
Shane Green (32 saves) - restricted BOS
Bud Norris (28 saves)
Sergio Romo (25 saves)
Brandon Morrow (22 saves) - restricted OAK
While it's not quite the bonanza we had last year when Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman, and Kenley Jansen were all on the market, there's still some great closing options for teams in need of a boost in the bullpen. Wade Davis, restricted by the Tigers, should command the biggest offer. The Tigers have $28m to spend and Charlie Blackmon is a restricted Free Agent. I doubt they'll have leftover finances for Davis. Brad Hand is the other elite pen arm on the market. He had 32 saves in a timeshare last season and could be even better this year. Beyond these two, the other four have a chance to be closers this season, but being a relief pitcher is a volatile business. Throw your dart and hope it lands.
--Set Up Men
Kelvin Herrera (17 saves)
Arodys Vizcaino (16 saves) - restricted BOS
Jeremy Jeffress (15 saves) - restricted NYM
Blake Parker (14 saves)
Matt Barnes (25 holds)
Tommy Hunter (25 holds)
Joe Kelly (21 holds)
Ryan Pressly (21 holds)
The rest of these guys are all good bets for holds or a potential closing job at some point during the season. My advice to owners? Get one of them, but don't break the bank for a particular arm. As much as you think you know... you probably don't. Y'know?
--Predictions
The Detroit Tigers, unable to match Blackmon, match Wade Davis for 2 years at $14.5m.
The Miami Marlins sign Brad Hand for 3 years at $12.5m.
Two owners get into a bidding war and pay more than $12m for another bullpen arm, though they shouldn't.
Catchers
--Starting Options
Yadier Molina (3.2 points per game) - restricted STL
Wilson Ramos (3.1 points per game) - restricted COL
Francisco Cervelli (2.8 points per game)
Kurt Suzuki (2.8 points per game)
The ever thin catching market is back and better than ever. The two best options are restricted in Yadier Molina and Wilson Ramos. Molina is almost sure to be re-signed by the Cardinals with their plethora of cap space. Ramos, on the other hand, is almost sure to be available with the Rockies just $5m from the cap. Cervelli and Suzuki could both be serviceable options for teams just trying to sit down in this wild game of musical chairs.
--Backups
Nick Hundley (2.1 points per game)
Luke Maile (2.1 points per game)
Jonathan Lucroy (2 points per game)
Here's a couple proven backups that'll score you a couple points a week. Have one, but don't lose sleep over them.
--Predictions
The St. Louis Cardinals match an offer on Yadier Molina for 2 years at $10m.
The Pittsburgh Pirates, in need of a catcher, sign Wilson Ramos to a 2 year deal at $9.5m.
One of the remaining catchers clears $10m as teams get desperate.
First Basemen
--Starters
Matt Carpenter (4.1 points per game)
Jose Abreu (3.5 points per game) - restricted NYM
Ryan Zimmerman (3.3 points per game) - restricted CHC
Joey Votto (3.2 points per game) - restricted SF
Remember last year when Carlos Santana was the big name at first on the market? No longer. This year packs some punch for teams in need of a first baseman. Matt Carpenter, fresh of a near MVP season, is unrestricted in Free Agency after his Option B Arbitration contract expired. He figure to get PAID. Joey Votto, though having had one of the worst seasons of his career, is still a top 5 first baseman in the game and will get paid as such. The Giants have $23m to try to match, I doubt that gets it done. Jose Abreu is above average at the position, though the Mets have plenty of money to retain him. Ryan Zimmerman rounds out the group, though when does he finally drop off?
--Platoon Options
Yonder Alonso (2.9 points per game) - restricted TEX
Mitch Moreland (2.9 points per game) - restricted COL
Logan Morrison (2.5 points per game) - restricted CIN
Lucas Duda (2.3 points per game)
The rest of these options have a lot of power, but can they be trusted to man the first base position for an entire season on a contending team? The answer is likely no. Still, they're not bad options if you have adequate depth at the position.
--Predictions
The Boston Red Sox sign Matt Carpenter to a 3 year deal at $36m.
The Oakland Athletics sign Joey Votto away from the team across the bay for 2 years at $30m.
The New York Mets match Jose Abreu to a 2 year deal at $27m.
One of the platoon options will score 500 or more points while making $7.5m or less.
Second Basemen
--Starters
DJ LeMaheiu (3.5 points per game)
Brian Dozier (3.2 points per game)
Ian Kinsler (3.1 points per game)
Ben Zobrist (2.9 points per game)
Jonathan Villar (2.8 points per game) - restricted TOR
Starlin Castro (2.7 points per game)
Surprise. All the notable second baseman could definitely start for your team. It's a deep market this season, led by DJ LeMaheiu and Brian Dozier. While Dozier had a down year, both have the ability to be top bats in a lineup at second base. Ian Kinsler had a down year, but is just a season removed from scoring nearly 500 points. Ben Zobrist has great value with his usual multi-position eligibility. Villar and Castro are both legitimate starters. No need to fear if you're need of a second baseman this off-season. There should be enough to go around.
--Predictions
The Minnesota Twins sign Brian Dozier to a 2 year contract at $21m.
The Miami marlins sign DJ LeMaheiu to a 2 year contract at $18.5m.
Neither Dozier or LeMaheiu lead this group of 2B free agents in points scored at the end of 2019.
Third Basemen
--Starters
Josh Donaldson (3.4 points per game) - restricted LAA
Eduardo Escobar (3.4 points per game) - restricted SF
Johan Camargo (3.1 points per game)
Todd Frazier (2.9 points per game) - restricted CHW
Kyle Seager (2.7 points per game) - restricted MIA
Evan Longoria (2.7 points per game)
There's some solid options on the market for third base this season. But the common denominator I'm sensing is reliability with any of these players. Josh Donaldson is coming off an injury filled, down season. Will he be worth what he'll probably get paid? Eduardo Escobar broke out this past season, are we sure we can count on him going forward? Johan Camargo played well, but does he have a long-term role set? Kyle Seager had a down year and was very overpaid last season, will teams be shy on him this year? Todd Frazier and Evan Longoria are well past their prime, are they still starting options? Take your chances. The payoff could definitely be worth it.
--Bench Options
Eduardo Nunez (2.6 points per game)
Derek Dietrich (2.4 points per game) - restricted TOR
Nunez and Dietrich will probably pick up multi-position eligibility during the season, providing value beyond just the third base position. Though neither will likely be a legitimate starting option, the ability to rotate them between positions could be a much desired asset in free agency this off-season.
Predictions
The Los Angeles Angels match an offer of 2 years @ $21m with an option to retain Donaldson.
The San Francisco Giants, unable to retain Votto, match an offer on Eduardo Escobar for 2 years @ $16m.
Evan Longoria gets overpaid because of his name value.
Shortstops
--Starters
Jean Segura (3.4 points per game)
Andrelton Simmons (3.2 points per game)
Once again, there's not much on the shortstop market (see last year: J.J. Hardy & Danny Espinosa were the best options). However, at least we have a couple solid shortstops that teams can throw money at this off-season. Both Jean Segura and Andrelton Simmons are both average if not slightly above average at the position. Expect a bidding war on at least one of them.
--Bench Options
Ehire Adrianza (2.1 points per game)
Alcides Escobar (2 points per game)
I'd be nervous if you went into 2019 with either of these players as your starting shortstop. But as your first infield option of the bench? Not a bad bet.
--Predictions
The Arizona Diamondbacks sign Jean Segura to a 1 year deal @ $30m per year with an option
With Gregorius out for the year, the Texas Rangers sign Andrelton Simmons to $14m a year for 2 years.
There's another big trade for an all-star shortstop prior to the start of the season.
Outfielders
--Stars
Charlie Blackmon (4 points per game) - restricted DET
Starling Marte (3.7 points per game)
Tommy Pham (3.6 points per game) - restricted PIT
Justin Upton (3.4 points per game)
There's four star outfielders in my mind on the market this off-season. Arguably the best bat available in free agency, Charlie Blackmon, is on the market as a restricted free agent from Detroit. His price tag is likely to exceed what the Tigers can spend. Starling Marte and Justin Upton are both unrestricted and could both see contracts upwards $25m. Tommy Pham will probably be matched by the Pirates, but his price tag could also jump $20m. Add one of these guys to your lineup and I'm guessing you add at least a win to your season projection.
--Starters
Shin-Soo Choo (3.4 points per game) - restricted TEX
Andrew McCutchen (3.3 points per game) - restricted KC
Ian Desmond (3.2 points per game) - restricted MIN
Steve Pearce (3.1 points per game) - restricted HOU
The second tier of outfield options is a quality group in its own right. Two long-time hitters, Shin-Soo Choo, a Rangers RFA, and Andrew McCutchen, a Royals RFA, will likely see the most money. I'm curious to see how people value Ian Desmond after a 3.2 point season and Steve Pearce after his post-season heroics. Desmond's contract got the better of the Twins last time around.
--Bench Options
Mark Canha (2.6 points per game)
Eric Thames (2.5 points per game) - restricted MIL
Robbie Grossman (2.4 points per game)
Curtis Granderson (2.4 points per game)
Jose Bautista (2.3 points per game)
Gerardo Parra (2.1 points per game) - restricted PHI
Gorkys Hernandez (2 points per game)
This group... who knows. I could see Thames being an above average hitter in a lineup, but he's restricted by Milwaukee. The rest of these guys though? You'll be lucky if you get a starting role and 400 points out of them. All great options though if you already have three established outfielders. Sign them early, because once the top free agents are gone, we might see a rush for this group that balloons their price tags.
--Prospects
Julio Pablo Martinez (prospect) - restricted ARI
Victor Victor Mesa (prospect)
The weird world of international free agents brings us two top 100 prospects that are available via free agency. No idea how much these guys will get paid. Ohtani got $36.6m, but he was projected to be in the majors right away. It's tough to commit that much money to players a season or two off.
--Predictions
The Arizona D'backs sign Charlie Blackmon to a 1 year deal at $44.5m with an option and sell him within a week.
The Seattle Mariners sign Starling Marte to a 3 year deal at $32m per year.
The Pittsburgh Pirates match an offer of 2 years at $25m per year on Tommy Pham.
Beyond Charlie Blackmon, Victor Victor Mesa will get paid more yearly than any other outfielder during free agency.
Designated Hitters
--Utility Options
Nelson Cruz (3.6 points per game) - restricted OAK
Albert Pujols (3.1 points per game)
Kendrys Morales (2.7 points per game) - restricted SD
Victor Martinez (2.2 points per game)
Nelson Cruz is the king of this DH class. Oakland has the cap space to retain him, but I have the feeling a rebuilding team will attempt to sign him to a massive one year deal in effort to trade him to a contender. Pujols is a solid option that could potentially gain first base eligibility as well.
--Predictions
The Seattle Mariners sign Nelson Cruz to a 1 year, $38m deal with an option.
Thanks for reading! Enjoy the rest of your Thanksgiving weekend!
KR