Take 2: Scaled Franchise Tag Values Proposal

[Astros GM (Will)]

Problem:

Subjective ranking from one source is not effective at determining franchise tag values because the list is outdated by the time offseason decisions are required. 

Other issues:

Compensation for lost players will have to be re-evaluated, but with this system, there is a structure in place to easily determine thresholds for Comp A/B/C or to have no compensation at all. This is not within the scope of this proposal. 

Proposal: 

Scaled Franchise Tag Values Proposal - Spreadsheet

This proposal is to be implemented after the 2020 season.

1. Franchise Tag Value will be based on Point totals from the previous three seasons.
2. The lowest season point total from the last three seasons, and the average of the highest two seasons will be used to determine the Franchise Tag Value.
3. In order to make the franchise tag value non-linear, a scaled set of multipliers will be used for both hitters and pitchers who reach certain points thresholds.
4. Use the current $5.0M minimum franchise tag value for when the Weighted Points x Multiplier is less than $5.0M.
5. The multipliers were selected so that the very top-end players were still valued at > $30.0M (see Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, Nolan Arenado, or Christian Yelich)

-- Hitter Points Thresholds:

Tier	Pts. Threshold	Multiplier	Top X - 2019	Top X - 2018	Top X - 2017
1	> 650	$0.045	19	12	11
2	550 - 650	$0.035	54	31	41
3	< 550	$0.025	-	-	-

-- Pitcher Points Thresholds:

Tier	Pts. Threshold	Multiplier	Top X - 2019	Top X - 2018	Top X - 2017
1	> 500	$0.050	11	15	11
2	400 - 500	$0.040	43	43	37
3	< 400	$0.030	-	-	-

Tier 1 - while the weighted points total is what is being observed, it effectively amounts to saying that Tier 1 averages being a ~Top 11-20 Hitter or Pitcher by point totals over 2 out of 3 previous seasons.

Tier 2 - similarly, this equates to averaging as a ~Top 31-50 Hitter or Pitcher by point totals over 2 out of 3 previous seasons.

Tier 3 - this group is for everyone outside of the top two tiers.

This scaled multiplier effectively produces the following chart, visualizing below the franchise tag value of every potential 2019 free-agent so that it is a) not linear, and b) closely approximates our current franchise tag value system tiers.

Proposed System Trend:


Current System Trend:




Example (Top 25 Scaled Franchise Tag Values with 2019 FA Class):




Effects and Observations: 

1. $5.0M minimum franchise tags become less rare, which is understandable because previously it would only ever be higher for 250 players, regardless of points performance.
2. Does not account for position - as such catchers and top-end relievers will become much cheaper to tag, in generalas they rarely ever cross the Tier 2 hitter threshold.
3. Bottom-end relievers become much more expensive to tag, but tags were not typically used even at the $5.0M minimum currently anyway.

Potential Adjustments to this Proposal:

This was created with my best judgment based on the initial feedback in the GroupMe and from Alex's original proposal. With this template, we can easily adjust the following to meet a consensus for preference. Modifying any of these three will create a slightly different chart pattern that may be more optimal.

• Multiplier Values
• Points Thresholds
• Number of Tiers

Implementation:

This was created in Google Sheets and the template can be distributed as necessary for determining tag values. After each season, the season point totals can be added and the template update to account for the last 3 seasons (2017 would be dropping off after next season). Anyone with a small amount of experience working with databases should be able to create this, and the work can easily be checked (it's really just Point Total x Multiplier) so that the process is transparent.

Other Rule Notes:

- International players signed to a 1-year contract will have the multiplier applied to their only season's points, rather than a weighted average.

- Shohei Ohtani and other two-way players with hitter and pitcher eligibility on ESPN will use both hitting and pitching multipliers. Hitting points will use the hitting multiplier, and pitching points will use the pitching multiplier. The tag value will be the sum of both. 

[Rockies GM (Alex)]

This is fantastic Will. I vote that we implement this next off-season as long as it gets enough votes. I'd like to see 20-25 votes on a change as big as this.

[Astros GM (Will)]

Bump to get more voting (currently at 16 votes).

[Jake (Former Athletics GM)]

Bump. Another resounding 'yes' from Oakland. (20-2-0)

[Rockies GM (Alex)]

20 votes. That's enough. We've got ourselves a new system for the 2020 off-season!

[Rockies GM (Alex)]

So for compensation picks, should we just make the slight adjustment of changing it from to Tier 1 = COMP A pick, Tier 2 = COMP B Pick, No COMP C picks?

[Astros GM (Will)]

Dec 14, 2019 14:19:07 GMT -5 Rockies GM (Alex) said:

So for compensation picks, should we just make the slight adjustment of changing it from to Tier 1 = COMP A pick, Tier 2 = COMP B Pick, No COMP C picks?

I think this is a good idea.

[Astros GM (Will)]

Another addendum added to the post above:

The years considered in the three-year average only apply if the player was under contract with an MLB team that season. If an international player signs in 2020 and a BK owner signs him to a 1 year contract, his franchise value will only consider the points scored in his MLB season and ignore all other seasons in which he was not under contract with an MLB team.

[Astros GM (Will)]

One other item of discussion is how to apply tag values to Shohei Ohtani or other potential two-way players.

My proposal would be to add together his hitting tag value and pitching tag value since this will count points from both sides of the ball with the appropriate tier.

[Rockies GM (Alex)]

Astros GM (Will), I'm down for this adjustment, I don't think that needs a vote. Just add it to the proposal.

[Astros GM (Will)]

Rockies GM (Alex), cool, added the last two items at the bottom of the post.