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Post by Rockies GM (Alex) on Feb 28, 2020 12:43:52 GMT -5
Rockies trade: SP, Luis Severino ($800k) - year 6 SS, Cole Tucker ($800k) - year 2 SP/RP, Zack Godley ($4.2m) - year 5
Braves trade: SP, Robbie Ray ($10.6m) - year 6 (75% coverage in 2020) SS, Miguel Rojas ($6.8m) - year 7 (75% coverage in 2020) RP, Hunter Wood, ($800k) - year 2 1B, Kevin Cron ($300k) - prospect
Rockies confirm. Severino and Tucker are two of my favorite players... and while that cheap extension down the road for Severino would be nice, I decided I need to move him for players that can help me this season and the next. I add some depth at first and in the bullpen in this deal and also get a replacement in Ray who has some pretty solid upside if he can figure out his control. Good talks, Jared. Also, you're welcome welcome NL East for 2020 at least.
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Post by Braves GM (Jared) on Feb 28, 2020 12:46:47 GMT -5
Braves accept.
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Post by Nationals GM (Tim) on Feb 28, 2020 14:00:42 GMT -5
Approve....this is a big gamble by the Braves.
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Post by D'backs GM (Kyle) on Feb 28, 2020 14:15:25 GMT -5
Approve
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Post by Cardinals GM (Nik) on Feb 28, 2020 16:28:09 GMT -5
Veto.
In return for: -Robbie Ray (projected 426 points) and still only 28 years old -Miguel Rojas (projected 349 points) -Hunter Wood (a 26 year old reliever who had a 2.98 era in 45 IP last year) -Kevin Cron (1.226 OPS in 377 PA in AAA last year)
Braves get: -A pitcher who will have pitched 12 innings in 2.5 years. Despite being taggable at $5M a year it doesn't matter how low his contract is if he never returns to form. - Cole Tucker who isn't projected to break camp in the majors and hit .211 in 159 PA last year. - Zack Godley, a guy who may or may not be in the Tigers starting rotation but according to Fangraphs projections will be in the minors to start the season
Not to mention, Rockies get 75% coverage on Ray and Rojas.
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Post by Marlins GM (Travis) on Feb 28, 2020 16:35:05 GMT -5
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Post by D'backs GM (Kyle) on Feb 28, 2020 17:07:59 GMT -5
I got one and it almost convinced me to veto it instead of approving it.
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Post by Orioles GM (Michael) on Feb 28, 2020 17:51:02 GMT -5
In the words of Randy Jackson, "it's a no from me, dawg."
Ditto what Nik said. Veto
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Post by Astros GM (Will) on Feb 28, 2020 18:12:39 GMT -5
Just thinking out loud here. If we assume best case scenario, Alex doesn't pick up Robbie Ray's franchise tag, everyone regresses from their 2020 projections in 2021 while Jared's return vastly improves their playing time and point totals while Severino returns in 2022 fully healthy and ace-like. I've got nothing to do today so I spent a lot of time reviewing this. * = projected value Player | '20 Salary | 2020 Pts* | '21 Salary* | 2021 Pts* | '22 Salary* | 2022 Pts* | Luis Severino | $0.8 | 0.0 | $0.5 | 100 | $5.0 | 400 | Cole Tucker | $0.8 | 39.5 | $0.8 | 200 | $0.8 | 300 | Zack Godley | $4.2 | 42.6 | $1.1 | 100 | $2.5 | 100 | Coverage | $13.0 |
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| Total | $18.8 | 82.1 | $2.4 | 400 | $8.3 | 800 |
2020 = 4.4 pts/$ 2021 = 166.7 pts/$ 2022 = 96.4 pts/$ Total Points = 1,282.1 points Total $ = $29.5 Overall = 43.5 pts/$Player | '20 Salary | 2020 Pts* | '21 Salary* | 2021 Pts* | '22 Salary* | 2022 Pts* | Robbie Ray | $2.7 | 432.5 | $10.8 | 350 | - | - | Miguel Rojas | $1.7 | 300.5 | - | - | - | - | Hunter Wood | $0.8 | 158.9 | $0.8 | 120 | $3.0 | 120 | Kevin Cron | $0.3 | 27.0 | $0.3 | 100 | $0.8 | 100 | Draft Pick Comp B |
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| -$3.6 |
| Total | $5.5 | 918.9 | $11.9 | 570 | $0.2 | 220 |
2020 = 167.1 pts/$ 2021 = 47.9 pts/$ 2022 = 1,100 pts/$ Total Points = 1,708.9 points Total $ = $17.6 Overall = 97.1 pts/$2020 - Rockies go from 82 to 918 points added (over a BK season, it's roughly 75% of a full season total, so an actual delta of 630 available points). Braves go in the opposite direction. 2021 - Rockies still have a decent starter in the lineup and some not worthless back of roster type guys that still outscores the Braves return even with Tucker and Godley finding their way to everyday roles. 2022 - Three seasons from now, the Rockies receive a Comp B pick for letting Ray go, worth ~$3.6 by my very rough estimations (gotta place some value on this pick). They still have Wood and Cron in the back of their roster. The Braves finally get a payoff down the road with Cole Tucker playing every day and Severino with a full return to form from injury. 2023 and beyond - Braves have a cost-controlled SS and ace. Rockies have probably moved on from Wood and Cron. I just... don't get it. This is a huge win for the Rockies, costs them almost nothing to improve their 2020 and 2021 team. This also ignores not tagging Robbie Ray, which there is possibility that he's even more valuable than with the tag option. It's also just as likely that the Braves score < 100 points in 2022 off this deal if Severino takes longer to return, Godley is out of the league (currently just an NRI for 2020), and Tucker has been non-tendered by the Pirates because they have Oneil Cruz and Liover Peguero coming up behind him on the depth chart that already has a SS in Kevin Newman. One more thing - the $ value of a point is not linear, so the points added at the top of the range should be much more valuable to the Rockies than just a linear comparison. With that said, Rockies win this deal in 2020, 2021, most likely 2022, and there is a decent chance Braves get zero value out of this deal by the time we are all senior citizens in 2023. Veto.
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Post by Braves GM (Jared) on Feb 28, 2020 18:26:47 GMT -5
Oh Jesus here we go.
Pitching is volatile, we all know that. If Severino was healthy there would be no way i could acquire him. We are projected for like 10-11 wins. Yes, we have a shot at the division, but that’s about it. First round of the playoffs we would run into a buzzsaw of the Rockies or Dbacks or someone else much better.
I’m trading a SP who is very good, but he’s not cheap. In fact, if his price stays the same or goes up Alex probably can’t even keep him for next year. If he does, he will have to move some other expensive piece. He is up against the ceiling of the cap, and something will probably have to give.
Trading Rojas is simple. He’s 31 yrs old, he’s on my bench, and he’s in the last year of his contract. Unless he uses some roids, I’m not getting a comp pick for him by letting him walk after the season. Cole Tucker might be The same player as Rojas. Who knows? It’s worth it to me to find out though, as he’s only 23 yrs old, he’s a great defender so he will probably play, and he has plenty of cheap control left. Who would you want? Tucker or Rojas?
Then there’s a relief pitcher and a 27 yr old prospect. I’m a Dbacks fan, so Crons power isn’t lost on my. He’s a RH hitter who’s not good defensively on an NL team. There’s upside there, but there’s also risk.
This entire trade is about risk and upside. I’m assuming a ton of risk, with the ceiling reward being a top 20 SP for the low cost of $5M per year for as long as I want him up to our limit. He’s 26 yrs old. I’m betting there’s a lot of gas left in the tank. I’m also betting on a young SS with a good eye, good hit tool and excellent defense to figure it out in the majors and be a good contributor to my team for the future on a cheap contract.
Best case scenario this year is that Tucker and Godly essentially replace the points that I’m losing from Ray, and I’m just as competitive as I was before the trade. Then midway through next year, my rotation is Flaherty, Severino, McKay at the top, all on cost controlled contracts. To me that’s a decent rotation to have heading into a playoffs matchup if nothing else changed (which it probably will).
Everyone here knows I’ve been going for it and improving my team the last two years. I’ve calculated this risk and it’s one I want to take. I didn’t sign Goldy to a big contract just roll over this year. To me, Severinos situation is an inefficiency in our league contract situation and I want to take advantage of it.
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Post by Marlins GM (Travis) on Feb 28, 2020 19:36:10 GMT -5
I'm gonna veto. Nik said it best really. Severino hasn't been Severino for 3 years. You're not trading for the Severino 5 years ago. You're trading for the Severino now. And the Severino now is hurt. A lot. I feel like this was a, "oh that's Luis Severino, I gotta get him," trade. As in, an instance where you're trading for the name rather than the player he is now.
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Post by Rockies GM (Alex) on Feb 28, 2020 20:02:02 GMT -5
Four vetoes. Deal is cancelled.
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Post by Mariners GM (Phil) on Feb 28, 2020 20:43:20 GMT -5
I’ll throw in an approve since it’s too late
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Post by Mariners GM (Phil) on Feb 28, 2020 20:44:07 GMT -5
(3-4) deal still cancelled
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